Aaron Judge is the Overwhelming Favorite for AL Rookie of the Year

If you bought in on Aaron Judge at 8-1 for AL Rookie of the Year before the season, congratulations. Judge is now the overwhelming favorite to win the award.

Here are the AL rookie leaders in fWAR:

  1. Aaron Judge: 3.0 fWAR
  2. Mitch Haniger: 1.3 fWAR
  3. Jordan Montgomery: 1.1 fWAR
  4. Ben Gamel (!): 1.1 fWAR
  5. Guillermo Bonifacio: 1.0 fWAR
  6. Chad Pinder: 0.6 fWAR
  7. Nick Goody (!): 0.6 fWAR
  8. Jose Leclerc:  0.5 fWAR
  9. Daniel Robertson: 0.5 fWAR
  10. Jharel Cotton: 0.4 fWAR

Aaron Judge is current second in the league, behind Mike Trout. He's currently on a 9.7 fWAR pace. I think we'd all be shocked if he maintains his current pace. Even if he hits a hard adjustment and plays at a 3.0 fWAR pace for the remainder of the season, he'll end with north of 5 fWAR, way ahead of any of these players. He's also got the flash and star power by virtue of being a home run hitter in New York. He won't fall under the radar come awards time. Judge needs an injury to deny him the award.

In fact, Judge has a shot at one of the best rookie seasons over the past two decades. The best rookies since 1997:

  1. Mike Trout, 2012, 10.3 fWAR
  2. Corey Seager, 2016, 7.5 fWAR
  3. Albert Pujols, 2001, 7.2 fWAR
  4. Krys Bryant, 2015, 6.6 fWAR
  5. Nomar Garciaparra, 1997, 6.4 fWAR
  6. Ichiro Suzuki, 2001, 6.0 fWAR
  7. Evan Longoria, 2008, 5.6 fWAR
  8. Jose Abreu, 2014, 5.3 fWAR
  9. Troy Tulowitzki, 2007, 5.0 fWAR
  10. Austin Kearns, 2002, 5.0 fWAR

Odds are Judge ends up somewhere in that top-10, with a solid shot at top-5.

What about AL MVP? The current leaders:

  1. Mike Trout, 3.6 fWAR
  2. Chris Sale, 3.3 fWAR
  3. Aaron Judge, 3.0 fWAR
  4. Miguel Sano, 2.6 fWAR
  5. Corey Dickerson, 2.4 fWAR
  6. Chris Archer, 2.4 fWAR
  7. Mookie Betts, 2.3 fWAR
  8. Aaron Hicks, 2.2 fWAR
  9. Jose Altuve, 2.2 fWAR
  10. Xander Bogaerts, 2.1 fWAR

The MVP competition is tougher, obviously. Trout is on the mend for two-ish months, but could easily finish north of 7 fWAR. My guess is Chris Sale will fade a bit, but he's still threatening 7.5-8.0 fWAR. Judge is definitely a contender though. If he finishes at a rough 5.0 fWAR pace, he'll end up well above 6.0 fWAR.