After the news about Gerrit Cole, talks started up on Cease for the Yankees, but they missed out on him. More inside...
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My Thoughts and Reaction:
The most recent news coming out today about Gerrit Cole is that the timeline for a return to the Yankees could be anywhere from 1-2 months. This could mean a loss of anywhere from 5 starts (if he only misses April) to 12 (if he misses all of April and May). Unfortunately, due to the wear and tear on all pitchers in the MLB, finding out results does take a few days and the timeline coming from that will require multiple eyes and opinions. However, there is good news at it appears there is not a full-UCL tear in Cole's right elbow. Currently, Cole is set to see Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles for an opinion, though the timeline on when that will happen is unclear.
Missing out on any start from the reigning AL Cy Young would be a blow to any team. For the Yankees, this is going to hit even harder, as their rotation beyond Cole was already a set of question marks after question marks. In brief, lets discuss who will likely (now) be the starting-5 on Opening Day:
Carlos Rodon: A 2-pitch pitcher who was a thorn in the Yankees side in his first season in the Bronx last year. He struggled with injuries, pitched just 64.1 innings, and had a 6.85 ERA. He was a Cy Young contender in 2021 and 2022, so hope is there, but his first impression was not invigorating.
Marcus Stroman: A big personality who has looked very good in Spring Training. He is a consistent 130 inning per year pitcher who will give the Yankees a solid ERA and he has AL East experience from his first 6 years in the MLB with the Blue Jays. You know what you get with Stroman, and I'm very happy with that.
Nestor Cortes: A few years ago Cortes was a journeyman looking for a spot, and he found it and produced. He excelled in 2022, but saw a major step back in 2023 while having injury troubles and pitching just 63.1 innings. I hope he comes back to form in 2024 and continues his unique approach, but I'm going to be a bit cautious on believing for now.
Clarke Schmidt: A product of the Yankees farm system from being a 1st round draft pick in 2017. As a back-end rotation piece he is just fine, but he also pitched 159.0 innings last year which was more than he pitched in 2022, 2021, and 2020 combined. The injury history here is also concerning.
Player Name: Who the Yankees 5th starter will be right now is a mystery. As of right now, it looks like it's a race between Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil, and Will Warren. Three young (25 or 26 years old) right-handed prospects who could be anything. On a deeper pitching staff up top, I'd feel more comfortable with them trying out these guys in the 5-spot, but this duty is going to be high-leverage early on this year.
Losing out on Dylan Cease was the Yankees last option to get an MLB-proven pitching talent on this team who would be ready by Opening Day. If they want to consider the likes of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery now, those two will need a few weeks to go through baseball progressions before coming into to pitch. Both would likely be ready before Cole comes back, but clearly neither would be ready by Opening Day.
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Ultimately, Dylan Cease is a good-to-fine pitcher. He would've bee a good add to the pitching staff, no doubt, but he's clearly not a number one. His numbers are inflated from pitching against mostly AL Central opponents (Twins, Royals, Tigers, and Guardians), his career ERA+ is below Marcus Stroman's, and he has had just one season of 5 with an ERA below 3.00- which came in his outlier 2022 campaign (2.20 ERA in 184.0 innings).
For me, the biggest positive of Cease is that he- like Stroman- feels like a player who you know what you're going to get from. He's making his case to be a reliable 150+ inning pitcher per year with a solid ERA. This is the prototype pitcher for a World Series contending team to have 3rd in their rotation behind a solid ace and a lower-end number 1 or high-end number 2 pitcher.
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It looks like the package going back to the White Sox is going to be headlined by...wait, really? Drew Thorpe?
That was a short tenure in San Diego. And, speaking of, now they should have a pretty decent (albeit also question-marky) rotation for 2024 with some familiar names:
Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Jhony Brito.
This was a move that the Padres needed to make more than the Yankees and they were willing to pay more in terms of prospect value. Their rotation was- and maybe still is- in a worse spot than the Yankees right now.
It's clear the Yankees were not willing to include Spencer Jones to make this deal happen (whether you think that's for the better or worse). We will see if that was the right move, and it fits the bill of the Yankees being hesitant to move on from homegrown hitting talent. It is also reported that the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers were in on a deal too.
What's next? Your guess is as good as mine.
