by Paul Semendinger
June 1, 2022
***
Yesterday, in the Tuesday Discussion, I suggested that the Yankees should trade any or all of their top prospects for Juan Soto. I make this claim because most prospects just don't pan out. I think there is a better likelihood that Juan Soto has more All-Star games and a higher lifetime WAR than the Top 5 Yankees prospects combined over their careers.
Sometimes, for fun, I look at old baseball guides and books. Over the weekend, I was flipping through the 1990 edition of The Complete Handbook of Baseball. In the report for each team, they listed that team's top prospect. Sometimes, they listed two.
This isn't a scientific study. For example, I don't know how that yearly guide chose the top prospects. I also don't know if they did a better job in previous or subsequent years, but here are the top prospects throughout MLB as listed in that book. Looking back in retrospect, how many of these players ended up as good at Juan Soto is even today (at just 23-years-old). How many had a career as valuable as Juan Soto's to date?
Orioles - Ben McDonald
Red Sox - Phil Plantier
Indians - Sandy Alomar & Steve Olin
Tigers - Brian DuBois
Brewers - Greg Vaughn
Yankees - Kevin Mmahat
Blue Jays - Glenallen Hill
Angels - Dante Bichette
White Sox - Robin Ventura
Royals - Kevin Appier
Twins - Willie Banks
A's - Felix Jose
Mariners - Tino Martinez
Rangers - Juan Gonzalez
Cubs - Kevin Blankenship
Expos - Marquis Grissom & Mark Gardner
Mets - Julio Machado
Phillies - Pat Combs
Pirates - Stan Belinda
Cardinals - Todd Zeile
Braves - Mike Stanton
Reds - Joe Oliver
Astros - Eric Anthony
Dodgers - Ramon Martinez & John Wetteland
Padres - Andy Benes
Giants - Greg Litton
In short, that's a lot of big names, most of whom didn't pan out.
This wasn't a comprehensive study, but it does illustrate the idea that most prospects are suspects. Most don't pan out.
If a team can get a superstar by trading prospects, the best call is to trade the guys.
