by Paul Semendinger
June 1, 2022
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Yesterday, in the Tuesday Discussion, I suggested that the Yankees should trade any or all of their top prospects for Juan Soto. I make this claim because most prospects just don't pan out. I think there is a better likelihood that Juan Soto has more All-Star games and a higher lifetime WAR than the Top 5 Yankees prospects combined over their careers.
Sometimes, for fun, I look at old baseball guides and books. Over the weekend, I was flipping through the 1990 edition of The Complete Handbook of Baseball. In the report for each team, they listed that team's top prospect. Sometimes, they listed two.
This isn't a scientific study. For example, I don't know how that yearly guide chose the top prospects. I also don't know if they did a better job in previous or subsequent years, but here are the top prospects throughout MLB as listed in that book. Looking back in retrospect, how many of these players ended up as good at Juan Soto is even today (at just 23-years-old). How many had a career as valuable as Juan Soto's to date?
Orioles - Ben McDonald
Red Sox - Phil Plantier
Indians - Sandy Alomar & Steve Olin
Tigers - Brian DuBois
Brewers - Greg Vaughn
Yankees - Kevin Mmahat
Blue Jays - Glenallen Hill
Angels - Dante Bichette
White Sox - Robin Ventura
Royals - Kevin Appier
Twins - Willie Banks
A's - Felix Jose
Mariners - Tino Martinez
Rangers - Juan Gonzalez
Cubs - Kevin Blankenship
Expos - Marquis Grissom & Mark Gardner
Mets - Julio Machado
Phillies - Pat Combs
Pirates - Stan Belinda
Cardinals - Todd Zeile
Braves - Mike Stanton
Reds - Joe Oliver
Astros - Eric Anthony
Dodgers - Ramon Martinez & John Wetteland
Padres - Andy Benes
Giants - Greg Litton
In short, that's a lot of big names, most of whom didn't pan out.
This wasn't a comprehensive study, but it does illustrate the idea that most prospects are suspects. Most don't pan out.
If a team can get a superstar by trading prospects, the best call is to trade the guys.
perhaps Paul ought to forget about Soto and instead turn to consideration of the acquisition cost for an outfielder coming from an NL East team that has been a major disappointment.
this guy is signed looong term and will cost $27.5M/annum for the next several
he's also a lefty slugger and someone that Paul used to Harp upon
of 5 top prospects you should expect more than 1 to work out, although you can't expect any to be as valuable as Soto has been.
he's been a 5+WAR player despite being a poor defender and 5 WAR is likely to be his minimum value for the next couple of years.
on the other hand, he's going to be so greatly in demand that he's going to be wildly expensive.... in arbitration.
as a free agent, he's going to be wickedly expensive.
a team that pretends that paying $300M to retain Judge would have to pay a buttload more for Juan.... a guy who's basically a DH
and he's just one guy and as likely to become disabled as…
I agree that trading a mess of prospects for Soto (if they can sign him to a long-term deal, or at least one to buy out a couple of free-agent years) makes sense.
That said, I'm not sure this listing supports your point. Would you have traded Alomar, Gonzalez, Tino, Ventura and Stanton for Soto? I wouldn't.
I always confuse Kevin Mmahat with Kevin Mahmahboogieshoes.