SSTN Mailbag: Stroman And The Pitching Staff

Sometimes, when real news comes, you have to pivot. There was a slightly different Mailbag planned for this morning, but last night's acquisition of Marcus Stroman and Luke Weaver brought multiple questions about both the acquisitions and my thoughts about the pitching staff as a whole. So today, we're going to do things a bit differently.

Rather than answer the questions I received individually, I'm going to discuss the topic more broadly in a way that should satisfy the questions that came in. For next week and all future weeks, please keep sending questions for the SSTN Mailbag to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. They will be answered in the traditional format moving forward.

For today we will discuss the signing of Marcus Stroman and Luke Weaver, how they fit with the current roster, whether these are good moves, and what it means for how the Yankees continue to build this roster. Let's get at it:

Somehow, I haven't written at all about Marcus Stroman this off-season. I had a post planned for next week about both the Yankees' minor league pitching depth and the "best of the rest" free agents on the starting pitching market, but the Yankees struck first. Many of us have been frustrated by the team's seeming lack of aggressiveness on the free agent market in recent seasons, as the Yankees often seem to lock on to a particular target and allow the rest of the market to pass them by while they wait on their guy. Is Marcus Stroman as flashy an acquisition in 2024 as Blake Snell? No, but we also know now that the Yankees have made at least one real offer to Snell (reports say it was in the $150 million range, but reporting has been bad enough this off-season that I take it with a grain of salt), and rather than wait out Scott Boras into February, the Yankees made sure they weren't left sitting empty-handed.

This is a good thing. Make no mistake: Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher who is better than any of the guys not named Gerrit Cole or Nestor/Rodon at their best. Frankly, I think everyone (myself included) underrates Stroman a bit. In my post about starting pitching earlier this week, I listed the following average statistics for the consensus two best starters on the free agent market from 2021-2023:

Blake Snell: 146 IP, 125 ERA+, 11.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.23 WHIP

Jordan Montgomery: 175 IP, 121 ERA+, 8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.18 WHIP

Here's how Marcus Stroman compares in the same analysis: 151 IP, 122 ERA+, 7.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.18 WHIP. Frankly, in some ways, he takes pieces of both guys' profile. Stroman doesn't quite have Monty's innings consistency, though he throws more than Snell, and his performance overall compares surprisingly strongly, even if he gets there in a slightly different way...that also resembles Monty.

On the downside, you can look at the overall numbers and see that the bottom-line performance has declined for Stroman in three straight years. However, that really doesn't show the whole picture. Stroman tried to pitch through a hip injury for July before shutting it down for over a month, which tanked his overall numbers. Even if we look at the peripheral stats, Stroman's velocity and movement both trended in the wrong direction in July, and that continued even when he returned in September, indicating he either wasn't fully built up when he returned or was still bothered by injury. Prior to the hip injury though, he was pitching like one of the best pitchers in the sport, and his velocity, command of the edges of the strike zone, and his ability to mix his pitch usage based on opponent all harkened back to his prime in Toronto or with the Mets.

Around SSTN, we also talk a lot about building an offense and a pitching staff that is well suited to the Yankees' home ballpark. Stroman fits that description to a "T," as he also boasts some of the highest groundball rates and lowest average launch angle against numbers in the sport.

At 2 years/$37 million, there is very little risk to acquiring Marcus Stroman. They are not married to him long-term, and frankly I don't love anyone on the current pitching market long-term. Stroman is likely to perform in similar fashion to both Snell and Monty in the aggregate over the next couple of seasons, and I actually think he might be a better fit for Yankee Stadium than the other two.

Do I think the Yankees should be done? No. There is a world in which acquiring Marcus Stroman is the missing piece of the puzzle. If Stroman, Cortes, and Rodon all can throw 150+ innings at levels that are similar to previous seasons, this is a championship caliber rotation. However, there is a ton of risk here. Rodon is injury-prone, Cortes never got off the ground last year, and Clarke Schmidt had never thrown 158+ innings before in his life prior to last season. There is almost no such thing as a "sure thing" with pitchers, but I still would prefer to see someone like Monty in pinstripes, as someone we know is well-suited to pitch in New York and is highly likely to eat a significant number of innings.

I really like the Marcus Stroman signing, but if that's all the Yankees do for the starting rotation, the best I can do is give the Yankees a B-, given the risk that still exists for a team that needs to try to win right now.

Now, the good news is that the pitching depth I was so worried about has been very interestingly rebuilt by Cashman and crew this off-season. A signing like Luke Weaver doesn't necessarily move the needle, but again the Yankees acquired a guy that won't be guaranteed a rotation spot, but with some tweaking might be a useful cog. Luke Weaver was a good prospect who despite putting together basement-level performances, is talented enough to continue getting chances. The Yankees signed him on a whim in September last season after he was possibly the worst starter in the Majors earlier in 2023. It seemed like a move to acquire a warm body to finish the season, but clearly the Yankees believe there's more there...so do I.

The Yankees immediately changed Weaver's pitch usage, getting him to lean almost entirely on his 4-seamer and cutter. He also shelved his sweeper and reintroduced a curveball that seemed to tunnel better with the 4-seamer and cutter. I thought Weaver was usable in September, and throws hard enough with enough spin to be worth trying to fix.

Most importantly, I think the Yankees have more pitching depth than they had at any time last season. Luke Weaver and Cody Poteet are swingmen who could potentially serve important roles on the Major League roster, and it allows Warren and Beeter more development time. It also allows Luis Gil to get healthy, and though I think he should be moved to the bullpen, I don't doubt that he could have some success as a 5-and-fly starter.

None of the moves that the Yankees have made are flashy, but there's little question but that they have improved the roster and their pitching depth in the last few weeks. I still want to see more, but this is a really good start.