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2025 Player Preview: Austin Wells

E.J. Fagan

by EJ Fagan

January 2025

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.


Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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With all due respect to Luis Gil’s well-deserved Rookie of the Year win, Austin Wells was the best news the Yankees player development has seen since Aaron Judge.


It’s weird to remember that just a year ago, all of the questions surrounding Austin Wells were about his defense. Those concerns were put to bed and then some. Wells wasn’t just passable on defense. He was one of the very best defensive catchers in the major leagues:



On their own, these stats are fine. A .717 OPS and slightly better .339 xwOBA are great for a catcher. Wells was worth 3.4 fWAR, good for 4th best among MLB catchers despite playing a lot less than almost everyone else near the top of the leaderboard.


But the best part is that it seems pretty likely that Wells has another gear. He started off the season with a terrible slash line, but was hitting the ball hard and getting unlucky. Something clicked in mid-June and Wells went on a crazy two-and-a-half month stretch where he hit .297/.386/.547. He collapsed in September—I’m still convinced that he was injured.


Okay, so what? Players have hot streaks all the time. I can slice up a lot of average-ish seasons to reveal a great stretch. But I think that, in this case, the hot streak could be a sign of something real. Let me explain why.


First off, I think it’s important to note that Wells’ should have had a .341 wOBA before his mid-June hot streak with an expected .241/.341/.431 batting line rather than his actual .200/.289/.291 batting line. His September was truly terrible and not just unlucky, but his first two months of the season were genuinely unlucky. Wells wasn’t just great from mid-June through August; he was good or great until early September.


Second, Wells did not suddenly become an elite bat out of nowhere. I wrote this up last Spring. Austin Wells has always had a bat that everyone recognized was potentially excellent; the question was always defense. He would have gone way higher in the draft if scouts thought he would be a plus defensive catcher in the major leagues. He hit at every step throughout the minors with roughly the same contact profile that we saw in the majors. Better yet, Wells looked the part when the was hot. It seemed like he could put a ball in the gap at will.


Third, he was a rookie! MLB players rarely peak in their first season. Due to a Spring Training injury in 2023, Wells made it to the majors with just 113 Double-A games and 33 Triple-A games under his belt. And catchers tend to need a little more development time than other players, as they spend so much more time working on defense and pitcher management. He has lots of room to improve, especially against left-handed pitching, on top of getting better luck. Maybe he can learn to turn on balls a bit more to take advantage of Yankee Stadium.


I haven’t seen a ton of projections for Wells yet, but I’m taking the over no matter what they say. I think there’s a world where Wells is the missing elite bat that the Yankees are desperate to surround Aaron Judge with in 2025, at least against right-handed pitching. If so, he could be the best catcher in the league.


On top of it all, I like the guy. He seems like a genuinely good and fun dude. I think I need to get myself an Austin Wells jersey.

5 Comments


jjw49
Jan 28

Only problem is Wells cannot lay off the high fast ball, so he needs to improve his strike zone. I believe he will improve his overall play this season and have a good year.

Like

fuster
Jan 27

it's all Wells and good that Austin played a large part in the 2024 success of the Yankees


but, let's keep in mind that Wells utterly failed to make the list of MLB's top 100 prospects for 2025

Like

lenjack
Jan 27

Going from .229 to .229 in a year, does not impress me. ANY half decent catcher is better than Sanchez.

Like

Robert Malchman
Robert Malchman
Jan 27

I'm high on Wells, too. I love how he's upped his defensive game. He's the anti-Sanchez there. Even if he's not the next Thurman Munson, he'll be really good -- and he's done nothing to prove he isn't the next Thurman Munson.

Like
fuster
Jan 27
Replying to

 and he's done nothing to prove he isn't the next Thurman Munson.


the moustache is convincing even if inconclusive

Like
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