A Different Take On This Season's Failures

By Andy Singer

September 28th, 2023

Photo Credit: Ronald Martinez and Duane Burleson - Getty Images

There is little question but that the 2023 season was a failure for the New York Yankees. Many of us have seen the cracks forming in this roster for some time, though others were more pessimistic than was I about the likelihood of those cracks turning into catastrophic earthquake faults. That said, in a preseason post regarding what the bottom falling out of both the Yankees' and Mets' fortunes would look like, I said a rock-bottom projection for the Yankees would be based on injuries and age-related decline decimating the lineup. I also noted that even in that eventuality, the constructed team was good enough to finish above .500, which still would beat the Mets. On those counts, I was 100% correct, but I can't say that it feels any better to be right in this scenario, given that for the first time since 2016, we won't get to see Yankee playoff baseball.

I tend to be relatively conservative in my evaluations and rarely prone to hyperbole or significant emotion (my fan-relatee outbursts in private are an entirely separate matter). That conservatism has two sides: I rarely predict anything close to what I believe are the 95th or 5th percentile outcomes, but I try to recognize what those projections might look like. I also try to understand which pole is more likely. Coming into 2023, I thought either pole was possible given the volatility built into the roster. I thought it was possible that the young trio of Volpe, Peraza, and Cabrera announced their presence with authority, Dominguez roared through the minors to play a role in the outfield by late-August, and the lineup stayed healthy enough to support a good pitching staff. I also thought injuries, age-related decline, pitching underperformance, and a set of kids not quite ready for primetime could lead to a season like what we saw in 2023. On some level, it was very difficult to imagine a 50th percentile outcome!

So, how do we look at things in hindsight? I have something of a contrary take. I do believe that the Yankees have been emphasizing the wrong brand of analytics in both their evaluations and coaching, but I don't think that's the worst issue here, nor do I believe roster construction is the worst issue, though it is certainly problematic. What then, is the worst issue?

I want you to look at the following batting lines, and gather some thoughts:

Player A: .269/.296/.558, .854 OPS, .270 BABIP

Player B: .267/.295/.511, .806 OPS, .250 BABIP

Player C: .304/.375/.505, .880 OPS, .362 BABIP

All three are very productive bats. If we want to nitpick, Player A and B could stand to take a walk occasionally, and Player C is probably due for some regression due to a high BABIP, but all would be welcome in a Yankee lineup that was devoid of offense all season, right?

Player B is Harrison Bader before his mis-managed IL stint at the end of May. Player A is Giancarlo Stanton before his first IL stint, after which he was never the same at the plate. Player C is Anthony Rizzo through the day he collided with Fernando Tatis Jr. That's 1/3 of the expected lineup!?!

Why do I bring this up? Because the Yankees did assemble an offense. Enough offense? Probably not, given the above trio's injury history, but enough to advance to the playoffs, and possibly more if it was supplemented at the trade deadline (had the Yankees not already been floundering). More critically, none of the above performed near their expected levels after initial injury. Two out of the three tanked after short IL stints. This may be oversimplification, but the single most critical issue the Yankees need to solve this off-season, once and for all, is their training, medical evaluation, and recovery programs. It's a joke at this point. Solve that issue, and I think the Yankees are at least 60% of the way back to contention if they can also get a bit younger and more athletic. There is still a window to contend with a Judge/Cole core, but that window is closing quickly, so the Yankees need to figure it out, fast.