A Stat Brian Cashman Needs to Start Focusing On

A Stat Brian Cashman Needs to Start Focusing On

…Late October Thoughts from Cary Greene

***

I’ll open with this today. Trust in me, just in me. Shut your eyes and trust in me. You can sleep safe this offseason, safe and sound, knowing I’m around.

With the Yankees Brian Cashman due to address the media this week, we’ll hear more of the same ol’, same ol’ about how the Yankees use a great process and about how injuries to key players really derailed their season. We’re all prepared for the inevitable right? If not, better buckle-up ‘cause it's definitely coming soon.

I’m past hoping for leadership changes because it’s pretty obvious that Hal Steinbrenner is very happy with Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone both, so what would I like to see happen and why should you trust in me? Hmmm?

Due to the fact that Cashman’s offense keeps coming up short in the postseason, I’d like to see him focus even more on a particular stat as he builds his rosters. Before I get into that though, let me give Cashman a few kudos at least, because I actually think he has been thinking along the right lines at times - just not always.

Look, it’s this simple and also, it’s super important to understand that there are only 26 available spots on the active roster. When was the last time the Yankees had a left-hand hitting pinch hitter who they could bring in with runners in scoring position, in a key moment in a game?

Well, they actually have that player under team control right now. His name is Luis Garcia Jr. More on that in a bit, but what the Yankees don’t have right now is a roster that’s been built with the right kinds of players to surround Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Ben Rice. This needs to change, but which kinds of players are the right kinds of players for Cashman to look for? Hmmmm?

Personally, when considering which players to sign or trade for and which ones to avoid, I look at one stat above all others and it's a stat very few baseball fans know to look for. If I was running a team, this would be the stat I would focus most on as I built a roster.

As a kid, growing up in the late 60's and early 70's RBI's was the most important stat and everybody knew it - to the point where it wasn't even debated. Somehow, baseball fans today don't really understand the simple value of run production. The Yankees have Judge, when healthy and also, they now have Rice. These two lunkers are run producers and one of them, Judge, should absolutely bat second in the lineup. More on this in a bit as well - be patient…

After all, in Dr. No (circa 1962 for you young ones), James Bond’s patience is displayed, similarly to how I’m asking you to display it now, when Professor Dent breaks into Bond’s hotel room to kill him and unloads six shots into what he thinks is Bond’s body, sleeping under the covers. But no. Instead, Bond calmly sat in the dark, playing Solitaire behind the door. After Dent’s gun runs completely dry, Bond delivered one of his coolest lines, “That’s a Smith & Wesson and you’ve had your six.”

Situational hitting though, it's even more important stat than RBI's and so that's why I look at a player's batting average with runners in scoring position. I do this because not all players on a roster are prolific home run hitters. It stands to reason, if you're building a roster, that you'd want to fill in the roster with as many ballplayers that can handle a bat situationally - as you possibly can muster.

Now, before we get started, let’s pose a question. Do you think situational hitting, with runners in scoring position, is possibly the most important stat of all stats when a GM is constructing a roster? Or, is it just a random stat I’m pulling out of my Smith & Wesson today? Let me ask you this: Guess which team had the highest regular season batting average this season with runners in scoring position. Yup! You guessed it. The Rays: .284 -- Now guess who was second? UhhHuu, yep! The Brewers: .276 -- let this sink in.

This is why everybody who is good at betting is taking the Rays to prevail against the Guardians in they ALDS - just sayin’...

Where were the Dodgers? 7th (.262). And how about the Yankees? 19th (.246). You see, the Yankees offense this season was a well below average outfit and they just couldn’t hit well with runners in scoring position. This is a really big deal, but it's a sublime stat that most would really bring to the forefront. I’m going to propose a notion here:

Brian Cashman should make hitting with runners in scoring position his absolute, top consideration as he fills in his 2027 roster. People. Folks. Sharpies. Yankees fans. Whomever is reading this. If Cashman doesn’t do what I’m suggesting he do this offseason, the Yankees will not win a World Series next season - if there is a season that is. This is the be all and end all of any debate or discussion regarding which players to add this offseason.

There have been some rumblings on the site from those I’m rather fond of, that the Yankees should acquire Byron Buxton this offseason, in a trade with the Twinkies. Buxton hit .150 with runners in scoring position this season. In contrast, Cody Bellinger was the Yankees best hitter with runners in scoring position this season. He hit .340 - amazing and its rumored he too can play center field.

Coincidentally, TJ Rumfield (.341) and nine other players, led by Yandy Diaz (.373) were even better. Hmmmm? Would it make sense for the Yankees to prioritize the ability to hit with runners in scoring position…in the clutch, as they say? Trust in me folks. Slip into silent slumber, Sail on a silver mist. Slowly and surely your senses…will cease to resist. Trust in me, just in me, shut your eyes and trust in…me.

Using my favorite stat of all stats, batting average with runners in scoring position, we can separate the Yankees position players this season into three groups. The first group are the players who, if they're on expiring contracts, they should be allowed to go forth and prosper elsewhere. Simple as that. None of these guys do much of anything when it matters most. There’s no room for a single one of these amigos on a Yankees team designed to win a championship.

Group That Needs to Go

Heliot Ramos (.228), Max Schuemann (.228), Jazz Chisholm (.214), Trent Grisham (.213), Ali Sanchez (.190),  J.C. Escarra (.188), Jasson Dominguez (.119)

Next is the complete antithesis group. These players excel at hitting with runners in scoring position. They are the kind of players you want on a roster that is all-in at trying to win a championship. The Yankees need several more players on their roster that are in this category. As you probably know simply from watching Yankees games this season with your own, God-given eyeballs, Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, Luis Garcia Jr  and almost no one else isn’t going to cut it. Why is Cashman not surrounding Judge with other key hitters?

Will Amed Rosario be brought back into the fold for 2027. The Yankees could do worse than Rosario to fill a bench position, but candidly, I don’t think Cashman will bring him back and I’ll just leave it at that. He’s probably played his last game in pinstripes.

Group That Excelled

Amed Rosario (.346), Spencer Jones (.340), Cody Bellinger (.337), Ryan McMahon (.313), Aaron Judge (.310), Luis Garcia Jr (.294)

Before we get to the third group - I’m not sure where Luis Garcia Jr. fits into the Yankees plan for 2027. Garcia will enter into his final season of arbitration eligibility to start the season. If a team that was desperate for a proven, run producing bat that could protect their best hitter was interested in a trade, Cashman should absolutely listen to their proposal. On the other hand, Garcia can play second base and Anthony Volpe, by all accounts, can play third base. Since Garcia failed miserably at trying to play third base in the low Minor Leagues, he could be a quasi everyday player for the Yankees in 2027. He’d vacillate between roles at  first base, second base, DH and being a pinch-hitter.

With this next collection of players, the third group as I call them, the Yankees have an assemblage of players who should strictly be deployed in the lower portions of the Yankees lineup. These are bats that should never, under any circumstances, bat leadoff or above 4th in the lineup. These are players who either chase or don’t make solid contact when they have runners in scoring position. Opposing pitchers are going after these players in ways that exploit their tendencies.

Ben Rice, you may be surprised to learn, is in this group. Rice gets walked a lot when a runner is on second base. This hurts his average with runners in scoring position and come to think of it, why pitch to him in that situation? He’s too much of a power threat. Rice also drove in 97 runs this season. He’s an RBI machine! Lou Gherig knocked in 109 runs in 1926 in what was really his first season as a Big League regular. Ben Rice is a legitimate heir to the throne as far as I see it.

Alas, there’s only one problem with this, Rice is a bad fielding first baseman, as in minus 8 OAA bad, in only 472-innings. Since coaching a player isn’t illegal, I’ve mentioned previously that the Yankees should consider taking a page out of the late, great, Casey Stengel’s playbook – thinking back to when he ordered the then up and coming, hulking prospect that was Moose Skowron, to take dance classes at the Aurthur Murray school.

Skowron slowly improved his footwork around the bag and he became a serviceable first baseman. The Yankees should do the same, immediately, with Ben Rice. Sign him up with Aurthur Murray immediately.

Rice is being wasted as a leadoff hitter, he’d be far more effective if he batted cleanup for the Yankees. However, with few other options, Aaron Boone batted him leadoff a lot this season (150 at-bats). This is really on Cashman for failing to provide the Yankees with a better option to bat leadoff. Ideally, the Yankees want Rice coming up to bat when other teams have nowhere to put him. Its easy peasy conceptually, but it's proven to be a real challenge for Cashman and Boone to execute on this.

Note to Brian Cashman. For the love of God Brian, can you get the Yankees a leadoff hitter please? Someone who excels at not only getting on base, but who is deadly hitting with runners in scoring position. I ask you for this every year! Oh wait, teaser alert here. There’s a guy named Cary who knows who you should trade for Brian! The player is a 1-year rental player too, just the kind of player you love Brain - he’s in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

More than likely, Paul Goldschmidt won’t be coming back. He hit leadoff sometimes for the Yankees this season. This wasn’t ideal either but again, the team had very few options. Another point here too folks, George Lombard should absolutely not be batting 5th or 6th in the lineup - no way on God’s green earth! He’s a #7 or #9 hitter all the way at this stage in his development. Can the Yankees please get this right? Pretty please? Also, Austin Wells looked better in the second half of the season, but he’s a #8 hitter, he should never bat higher in the lineup, under any circumstances.

Group that Should Always Hit in the Lower Half of the Lineup (excluding Rice here due to his ability drive in runs)

Anthony Volpe (.279), Jose Caballero (.262), Giancarlo Stanton (.256), Ben Rice (.255), Paul Goldschmidt (.253), George Lombard (.235),  Austin Wells (.159),

So! If I'm building a 2027 Yankees roster, I need at least two everyday players who excel at hitting with runners in scoring position. That’s first and foremost on my to-do list. Trust in me, just shut your eyes and trust in…me. Trust that I’ve scoured the pile of mostly unappealing yet available free agents and I’ve drawn my conclusions as to which ones the Yankees should pursue. Positionally, you now know why I believe Brian Cashman has a very easy job this offseason. He needs to nail this. There are only two positional free agents that he needs to sign. It’s very simple. If he does what I’m hoping he will do, the heart of the Yankees lineup would suddenly be revitalized.

Priority number two this offseason is to sign Randy Arozarena, not only because the Yankees would be replacing Giancarlo Stanton with Arozarena, but because his average with runners in scoring position was 13th in MLB this year (.337) - and yes - Boone could bat him right in front of or directly behind Cody Bellinger in the lineup.

Priority number one is rather obvious. Cashman must sign Teruaki Sato to take over at third base. He hit .321 this year en route to winning the NPB Central League Triple Crown, with his 39 home runs and 106 RBI’s and oh by the way, he laced 40 doubles as well. There are concerns. He makes a lot of errors (19 this season alone, 12 more than he made the previous season in a similar sample size). Sato is not exactly a great fielding third baseman, though he did win a Gold Glove in 2025. Let’s not forget, Anthony Volpe won a Gold Glove a few years ago too. Sato’s bat is needed in the Bronx!

Bonus Part of Today’s Piece

I also have a sleeper trade idea as well, considering that Steven Kwan hit .324 this season with runners in scoring position, ranking 20th in MLB. Oh by the way, Kwan also posted an OBP of .382 and he was 6 OAA in CF and 2 OAA in left field. If I’m Cashman, I’m all over the Guardians for Kwan this offseason. He’d be a one-year rental player as he’s in his final season of arbitration eligibility, but given that the Yankees championship window, with Judge and Cole, is closing fast, trading for Kwan makes a ton of sense and he could bat leadoff for the Yankees, he’s exactly what this team needs.

Leadoff hitters come up in key spots as games wear on, there may be a runner or two in scoring position at times. It’s crucial that your leadoff man can move the runners with a base hit. Kwan checks that box.

The question is though, do the Yankees and Guardians match up in a trade for Kwan? Not really, but maybe there is a path forward. The Guardians were MLB’s second lightest spending team this past season. They just don’t have money to burn, or at least, the dang Dolan family’s frugality, which is at a level of a Hetty Green or an Aristotle Onassis, is pretty tight with their bankroll.

I’m afraid it would take Spencer Jones, straight up, to land Kwan. Keep in mind, Jones batted .340 with runners in scoring position during the regular season this year, so if the Guardian's insisted on Jones, I'd have to pass. Given that Kwan will be a free agent at the end of the 2027 season though, perhaps the Guardians front office would like a package of Clarke Schmidt and either Jose Caballero or Ben Hess? If I’m trying to build a winner this offseason, the latter trade or perhaps something along those lines is a deal I’d have to do. Carlos Lagrange or Elmer Rodriguez could also be part of a 2-prospect package for Kwan as well, I'd do a package with Rodriguez in it and try to hang onto Legrange, but if the Yankees really wanted Kwan, they'd have to be prepared to move on from Schmidt, Lagrange or Cruz o possibly even Jones as I mentioned.

Now here’s the sleeper piece of this idea. The Yankees actually have what the Guardians need. A proven, run producing bat that they could slide in behind Jose Ramirez. Enter Luis Garcia Jr. If paired with a pitcher like Clarke Schmidt and a Ben Hess or a Clarke Schmidt, it might get a deal done. This is worth a shot.

The Guardians would likely win this trade long term, but for next season, it gives the Yankees an actual leadoff guy who hits really well with runners in scoring position and who gets on base like Mighty Mouse anticipates his opponents next actions.

There you have it, SSTN readers. You now know the stat that should matter most to Brian Cashman as he builds his 2027 roster. The real question though, is does he? And, will Hal Steinbrenner pony up the money to make it all happen? Trust in me, these moves would dramatically help the Yankees get their offense more diversified. Right now, the Yankees simply aren’t keeping up with the Joneses.