Aaron Judge is Back, Baby

By E.J. Fagan

September 17, 2025

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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If you knew nothing but Aaron Judge’s monthly OPS, you would know a lot about the Yankees 2025 season:

• March/April: 1.282 OPS, .581 w%

• May: 1.251 OPS, .654 w%

• June: .957 OPS, .481 w%

• July: 1.089 OPS, .480 w%

• August: .923 OPS, .571 w%

• September: 1.225 OPS, .583 w%

  
  

Let’s ignore for a second that the Yankees need their best player to perform like peak Barry Bonds*** and not a normal MVP to be a winning team. Aaron Judge has somehow managed to put together three extended stretches with an OPS over 1.200. And he’s rounding back into form just in time. He’s playing at a 10 win pace despite the flexor strain and DH-only time.

***Here’s something to watch: Judge is currently a career 177 OPS+, behind only Bonds at 182 among modern players. He’s been averaging 207 OPS+ since 2022, so finishing ahead of Bonds for his career is very much on the table. No one else is close. Soto and Ohtani are around 160. Trout is at 170. First ballot Hall of Famers Freeman and Harper are in the 140s. Unreal.

Red hot doesn’t quite describe Judge right now. Let’s begin by basking at his glorious Statcast page:

He’s only 99th percentile in hard hit rate. Slacker.

Over his last 100 plate appearances, Judge has averaged an insane .521 xwOBA:

Since returning to the outfield on September 5th, Judge is hitting an incredible .393/.541/.929, with a .678 xwOBA, after posting a relatively pedestrian .888 OPS in 27 games after returning from the injury. But, lesser noticed is his stretch leading up to the injury, when he posted a relatively mortal 1.017 OPS and .400 xwOBA in June and July.

Judge is unlikely to have a WAR above 11 for the third time since 2022 (although who am I to doubt that he will put up 2.5 WAR in two weeks? He’s done it before), but he’s still on an excellent 10 WAR pace.

More importantly, I wonder if we’re about to see a full Aaron Judge in the postseason for the first time. Judge ended the 2024 season pretty well, but wasn’t in 1.200+ OPS mode. He then sat for a week with the bye and looked off all postseason. In hindsight, his 0-5, 5K performance against Pittsburgh in his final game may have presaged what was to come.

With Stanton back in a slump (.515 OPS since August 28th) and the division all but lost, I wonder if the Yankees try to get Judge off his feet a lot more in late September. Let Stanton rest. Let Judge keep hitting, but hopefully save his body a little bit.

But even absent playoff implications, I’m delighted to be back watching the GOAT at his peak again.