About Spring Training: Best-Case Scenario

About Spring Training: Best-Case Scenario

By Tim Kabel

March 13, 2026

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Today is March 13th, and for the second month in a row it is Friday the 13th. I am not a very superstitious person. However, it doesn't need to be Friday the 13th for me to say that I don't think this is going to be a very good year for the Yankees. This is not the first time I have written that.

Although I don't think it's going to be a good year that doesn't mean I am not hopeful. I can be hopeful and realistic at the same time. That philosophy has carried me pretty far in life. I just don't think the Yankees did enough in the off-season to improve a team that although it tied for the best record in the American League, really wasn't that good. For the most part, the Yankees brought back the same roster that didn't get it done last year. Actually, they lost two important although inconsistent pieces of the bullpen, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. None of the three pitchers the Yankees brought in from the outside, Cade Winquest, Angel Chivilli, and Ryan Weathers have been impressive in Spring Training.

I know a lot of fans and media members are expressing optimism regarding this team because they feel the starting pitching will be significantly better in 2026 than it was in 2025. That is a distinct possibility. After all, Gerrit Cole will return to the rotation this season. However, he probably will not do so until May or June. The optimists also state that the Yankees will have a full season of Cam Schlittler in 2026. That is true. Unfortunately, Aaron Boone has already stated that Schlittler will be limited through his first several starts due to being held back at the beginning of Spring Training because of mild injury concerns. That means there will be a greater reliance on the bullpen in his starts. That will be a problem.

In addition to the aforementioned limitations on Schlittler and Cole, Carlos Rodon will not be in the rotation at the beginning of the season. He's recovering from surgery and will probably be back in May. However, I am willing to concede that the starting pitching may in fact be better in 2026 than it was last season. Unfortunately, there is more to the game than that.

I have very little confidence in the Yankees’ offense. I have delineated this in the past. I am also concerned about what seems to be a potential plan for using Ryan McMahon as the backup shortstop. He is a weak offensive player at third base. Moving him to shortstop will only make him a weak offensive player at shortstop, who is also a weaker defensive player at the position than other options. I would put Jose Caballero there every day at the beginning of the season and see what happens. Apparently, he made a lot of progress during the off-season and worked very hard. He was doing well before leaving for the WBC and did well in the WBC. However, the problem is that no matter how well Caballero does, it seems extremely likely that the minute Anthony Volpe declares himself ready to return to the Major Leagues, he will do so.

As noted, I do not have a lot of confidence in the Yankees’ offense. I have even less consent confidence in the bullpen as presently constructed. I think the Yankees need to shake things up and put someone such as Carlos Lagrange in the bullpen to begin the season. I have no reason to believe that they will do so.

As good as the starting pitching may be for the Yankees this season, it really won't matter if their offense can't score any runs and their bullpen blows whatever leads they may have. So, while many fans are looking at the best-case scenario being one in which the starting rotation and supposedly stellar defense leads the Yankees to a tremendous record, I have something else in mind.

I think the best-case scenario for the Yankees this year is for them to have their annual Boone-Swoon at the very beginning of the season. I think if the team falls into a hole early, any illusion that they may be able to make it to the World Series as presently constructed will disappear. At that point, the Yankees organization may be willing to consider making changes. Perhaps, they will stay with Jose Caballero at shortstop and allow Anthony Volpe to rehabilitate and work on improving his game in the minor leagues. There is no shame in that. He has minor league options. It would make sense. 

Perhaps Trent Grisham will be shifted to the bench to allow Jasson Dominguez, (who by the way, hit his third home run of the spring while I am writing this), to return to the Major Leagues where he can play regularly. Perhaps when Giancarlo Stanton suffers his annual injury that forces him out of the lineup for two months, Spencer Jones can come up as well. Perhaps the Yankees will acquire a third baseman who can produce a significant amount of offense.

If the Yankee struggle at the beginning of the season, maybe they will recall Carlos Lagrange and put him in the bullpen. Maybe when either Carlos Rodon or Gerrit Cole returns to the rotation, Luis Gil can go to the bullpen as well. Those two moves may turn a bullpen that is a weakness into one that is a strength.

The biggest change of all would be for the Yankees, after undergoing a Boone-Swoon at the beginning of the season, to decide that it is finally time to move on from the Swoon-Master himself. Replacing Aaron Boone will happen at some point, it may not happen this season. It may not happen early this season. But it should.

As I have stated many times, I don't think the Yankees are going to be very good this season. I don't think they will win the division. I'm not even sure if they will make the playoffs.

However, my hope is that they are bad at the beginning of the season and then actually make substantive changes that can make this team into a good one. Whether they will or they will remain stubbornly committed to what they have remains to be seen.