About the Off-Day: Tick, Tock

About the Off-Day: Tick, Tock

By Tim Kabel

August 15, 2025

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Yesterday, the Yankees had a day off after winning two of three games against the Minnesota Twins.  Yes, the Yankees won a series. Before you get too excited, remember it was against the Twins. The Yankees always beat the Twins. Furthermore, the Twins traded away most of their team at the trade deadline. The Yankees had a chance to sweep the Twins and pick up ground in the standings. They didn't do it. Tonight, they will open a three-game series against the Cardinals in St. Louis.  

The Yankees are 64-57 and in third place in the American League East. They are clinging to the last Wild Card spot and hold a measly one game lead over the Cleveland Guardians. Once again, on May 30th, the Yankees were 35-20 and in first place in the American League East by 7 games. Since then, the Yankees are 29-37. The Yankees had a losing record in June. The Yankees had a losing record in July. In August, the Yankees are 4-8 so far. 

Since May 30th, the Yankees have been a losing baseball team. They are 8 games below .500 during that time. The Yankees have 41 games left this season.  16 of those games are against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Astros, and Tigers. Those teams are all ahead of the Yankees in the standings. They are all better teams than the Yankees right now.

To be realistic, for the Yankees to make the playoffs, they would probably need to win 90 games. That means of the remaining 41 games, they would have to win 26. Is that possible? Yes, because almost anything is possible. The Yankees could conceivably win 30 of their last 41 games. Will they? That is extremely unlikely. 

Remember, the Yankees have been below .500 since May 30th. That is not a losing streak. It is what the Yankees are now. Until May 30th, they were 15 games over .500. Since then, they have been a losing team. It is unrealistic to expect the Yankees to suddenly flip a switch and become a winning team down the stretch. They would most likely have to be 26-15 in their remaining games to make the playoffs. They might squeak in with fewer wins, but they would have to win significantly more than they lose in their remaining games.

Let's break it down a little further. As I noted above, the Yankees have 16 games against top contenders that have all given the Yankees trouble. Based on the way the Yankees have played lately, it is unrealistic to expect that they will have a winning record in those sixteen games. Let's be charitable and say that they split those games. That would give them eight wins. As I suggested, they would likely need 26 wins to make the playoffs. Eight wins against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Astros would mean they would need 18 more wins against their other opponents. That means that the Yankees would have to win 18 games out of the 25 games against those other opponents. Does this team look like it can go 18-7 against any team or any group of teams? No, it doesn’t.

The Yankees have been mediocre for so long now that they have essentially run out of time. Yes, they can squeak into the final wild card position. Right now, they hold that position. Will they hold it for long? Will they even hold it through the weekend? The Yankees had a chance to pick up ground in the standings by sweeping the Twins. They couldn't do it.  That was a lost opportunity. The Yankees cannot afford to throw away many more chances to accumulate wins.

The Yankees have 17 games against the White Sox, Orioles, and Nationals. Those are all last place teams. The Yankees also have three more games against the Twins. If the Yankees want to make the playoffs, they need to dominate those teams. That is a total of 20 games. The Yankees cannot go 11-9 or 12-8 against those teams and hope to make the playoffs. However, the Orioles have been tough on the Yankees in recent years and this year. The White Sox have improved since the beginning of the year.

The point is that the Yankees have put themselves in a very bad position and there is not much time left in the season to extract themselves from the mess they have made. To do it, they will have to play a much better quality of baseball than they have since May 30th. 

This is the longest and deepest Boone-Swoon the Yankees have ever had. The 2025 season is on the verge of being lost irretrievably by the Yankees. 

The Yankees have five games against the Cardinals and the Rays before they open a series against the Red Sox next Thursday. Realistically, the Yankees need to win at least four of those five games. They cannot afford to simply tread water. They need to turn the season around beginning tonight if they are going to make the playoffs and do anything in the postseason. Time is running out.