About the Off-Season: The Rotation, For Starters

About the Off-Season: The Rotation, For Starters

By Tim Kabel

October 28, 2025

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As the 2025 postseason rolls on without the Yankees, I will continue taking stock. It is time to evaluate what went wrong this season and what needs to happen going into next season. I started by addressing the manager. I then considered players on the current roster who will be free agents or who have options. Now, I am looking at the Yankees position by position. Today I will turn to the starting rotation.

In 2025, the starting rotation for the New York Yankees went through multiple transformations, which is not unusual.  If you don't believe me, ask Tom Jones. At one point, Marcus Stroman was a regular member of the rotation before ultimately being released. Gerrit Cole went down with a major elbow injury and required Tommy John surgery. That occurred before the season even started. Clark Schmidt suffered the same fate.

By the end of the season, the starting rotation consisted of Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Will Warren, and Cam Schlittler. Neither Schlittler nor Warren had been expected to be in the rotation this season. Yet, there they were. In 2024, Luis Gil was not expected to be part of the rotation until Gerrit Cole suffered a major injury.

As I look at the Yankees’ starting rotation for 2026, please keep in mind that I do not have a crystal ball. I can only go by what could reasonably be expected to happen not things that might occur in the future. The five pitchers who ended this season in the Yankees’ starting rotation are expected to return. 

However, after the end of this season, Carlos Rodon had surgery to remove a bone spur and loose bodies from his left elbow. Loose bodies? That sounds like something from a CSI episode. Anyway, that surgery will delay Rodon’s start to the 2026 season. It is anticipated that he will be able to pitch for the Yankees in a game by mid-April or the beginning of May. 

Gerrit Cole missed the entire 2025 season with Tommy John surgery. The surgery was deemed a success, and he began a throwing program in August. He is not expected to be back in the starting rotation by Opening Day. A more reasonable timetable has him returning to the mound for the Yankees by mid-May 2026. Considering this is Gerrit Cole we are talking about; I would not be surprised if it happens a little bit sooner.

Clarke Schmidt had a less invasive surgery, an internal brace procedure, performed on his right elbow in July of this year. His recovery should not take as long as Cole's. He's expected back around the midway point of the 2026 season.

The Yankees have several intriguing starting pitching prospects including Elmer Rodriguez Cruz, Carlos Lagrange, Ben Hess, and Brendan Beck.

There will be a few top-tier free agent starting pitchers available including Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, and Ranger Suarez.

As always, there will be pitchers rumored to be available via trade.

So, what should the Yankees do? Should they go out and sign a free agent pitcher? Should they make a big trade? Should they be patient and wait for their starters to return?

At this point, Max Fried, Luis Gil, Will Warren, and Cam Schlittler, are anticipated to be ready to start the season on Opening Day. Fried is a Cy Young candidate for the 2025 season and he is the ace of the staff at this point. Luis Gil was the rookie of the year in 2024. He missed a good portion of 2025 due to an injury but returned and was relatively effective, despite battling control issues. Hopefully, with a full spring training and a normal start to the season under his belt, he should be back to his top form. Will Warren was somewhat inconsistent but never missed a turn and was generally very effective. He had a lot of trouble with the Toronto Blue Jays but then again, so did most of the Yankees’ starters. Cam Schlittler burst onto the scene and was extremely dominant in the elimination game against the Red Sox in the playoffs. Unless something goes drastically wrong, he will be in the starting rotation.

The real question is the fifth starter. At this point, it seems likely that Carlos Rodon will miss a few starts. He does not seem to be someone who will milk an injury and will probably be back as soon as he possibly can. That being said, I don't think it would behoove the Yankees to sign a major starting pitcher from the free agent crop. Part of this is that none of the available starters take my breath away. As far as a trade, it is impossible to predict who will be available. There is some thought that the Tigers may trade Tarik Skubal. That is certainly a game changing proposition and if he does become available, and the Tigers are willing to trade with the Yankees, they should be all in on that, provided they can sign him to an extension as part of the trade. However, until that happens, it is just speculation.

The Yankees will have to expend considerable resources to upgrade their starting lineup. I have suggested that they sign Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Schwarber. The Yankees may make those moves. However, they will have to hire someone to administer smelling salts to Hal Steinbrenner on a daily basis. Spending more money on the starting rotation might not be palatable to him.

I propose a more conservative approach. Ryan Yarbrough played a valuable role for the Yankees last year before being injured. He was very solid in the starting rotation and then translated well to the bullpen. He is not a spectacular pitcher, but he is reliable and consistent. I would sign him to hold Rodon’s spot in the rotation until he returns and then move him to the bullpen. If the Yankees sustained another injury to the starting rotation before Cole returns, Yarbrough could simply remain in the rotation or return to it, whichever the case may be.

If there are issues with the starting rotation, for example, if Cole struggles upon his return or one of the pitchers gets injured, there will certainly be pitchers available at or close to the trade deadline. There always are. Considering that Rodon should be back very early in the season and Cole might not be far behind him, I think the Yankees need to concentrate on the starting lineup, as that is their greater need. I believe the starting rotation needs only a tweak by adding Ryan Yarbrough and patience while Rodon, Cole, and Schmidt rehabilitate.