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  • Writer's pictureEthan Semendinger

Anticipating the Deadline: Selling

The Trade Deadline is less than a week away; I'm evaluating 3 fan-made trades with the Yankees selling from over at BaseballTradeValues.com.

 

Trade #1: "1 For the Price of 2"

Submitted By: dajuba (Link)


Proposed Trade:

Dodgers Get: Harrison Bader (OF, +6.3 MTV), Gleyber Torres (2B, +9.1 MTV) = +15.4 MTV

Yankees Get: Gavin Stone (RHP, +15.0 MTV)


The New York Yankees could very well sell at this years trade deadline. And if they do, they do have a number of good pieces of players with 2 or fewer "years" of control (meaning control for 2023 and/or 2024) that could fetch some very solid returns to get them back into a good place moving forward.


In this first trade we are going to consider a package with two of the Yankees better pieces between Harrison Bader and Gleyber Torres. In this trade, the Yankees would be sending them to the Los Angeles Dodgers. But do the Dodgers need a second baseman and outfielder?


Yes. Even though on Tuesday afternoon the Dodgers made a trade with the Boston Red Sox to bring their former player, Enrique Hernandez, back. Hernandez is a super utility man who can play all across the diamond, though his OPS+ this season is a whopping...61 and he has a negative -0.7 bWAR. I can't imagine the Dodgers would let him get in the way of an upgrade.


I say yes because the Dodgers second baseman, Miguel Vargas, has been sent down to the minor leagues after posting an 80 OPS+ in 81 games at the MLB level this year. The Dodgers also have an outfield of David Peralta, James Outman, James Heyward, and Mookie Betts. Betts is the exception, but it's a bit old, they are mostly hitting at an average clip, and they are a bit of a liability on defense.


Gleyber Torres would immediately slot in and fix an offensive hole they have at second base. Harrison Bader would serve as a solid option to help clear up some outfield defensive worries while not being a detriment to the offense and would be a perfect addition to their current outfield rotation.


On that end, the trade makes sense.


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For the Yankees, they could always use pitching help. Especially if they are looking to sell, and even more especially if they are getting back a player like Gavin Stone.


Gavin Stone is the Dodgers #4 prospect on the MLB Pipeline and is their #49 prospect in all of baseball. He's 24 years old, has been called-up to the MLB for a spot start from Triple-A earlier this season, and has the make-up to be a mid-rotation piece. The biggest thing on his "needs" is to add life to his fastball- which is something the Yankees seem to have a magic ability to do for their recently drafted players.


The ultimate hope would be that Gleyber Torres and Harrison Bader could fetch a lower or fringe Top-100 prospect each if they were traded. To combine them and get a Top-50 prospect would be a very smart move to make for the future.


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Best of all, this trade also works according to the values on BaseballTradeValues.com with a slim difference of +0.4 MTV headed the Dodgers way. Ultimately, in trades like this, it could be used as a framework to find some lower tier pieces on both ends to also exchange to make a perfect trade. I'm not worried about that.


It also helps that the Dodgers have 8 (!) Top-100 prospects in their system, which would make losing a player like Stone not as much of a deal as they- quite literally- have another 3 right-handed pitching prospects, between the MLB and Double-A, also in the Top-100.


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Ethan's Reaction: This trade would be perfect for everybody. The Dodgers get some reinforcements, the Yankees get to shed some salary and get a top prospect, and I get to feel right about picking this as a good trade from the many options on the trade boards.


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UPDATE: This article was written on Tuesday night, long before the Los Angeles Dodgers traded for Amed Rosario of the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday afternoon. Ultimately, as the Dodgers sent back Noah Syndergaard, it looks to have been a trade of two teams "problems" for one another. Much like my comments about the Hernandez trade from Tuesday, I don't believe that this would get in the way of the Dodgers seeing a trade with Gleyber as worthwhile. (Ultimately, the Yankees could also take back a player like Rosario in the trade to make room for Gleyber if needed.)


Though, with trades happening, it would be in the Yankees best interest to sell NOW. Don't let other teams usurp them in making a deal. The time to trade Gleyber, Bader, and more is now. Don't wait any longer. Use the off-day wisely!

 

Trade #2: "2 For the Price of 1"

Submitted By: 3bfan (Link)


Proposed Trade:

Blue Jays Get: Gleyber Torres (2B, +9.1 MTV) Yankees Get: Cade Doughty (INF, +2.4 MTV), Josh Kasevich (INF, +4.2 MTV) = +6.6 MTV


Maybe you're a bigger fan of splitting up Gleyber Torres and Harrison Bader into two separate trades. I understand the idea: split up the two players to get back more prospects. It's the idea of putting your eggs in multiple baskets in hopes of finding a gem (though I'm not sure that's how the idiom works) instead of going all-in on one guy.


In this second trade, we'll consider a trade for just Gleyber Torres. Now, Torres could be moved without Bader if the Yankees wanted to focus on giving the tandem of Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe a shot at the MLB level while not blowing up the team. That would keep Bader on the team as their centerfielder, but allow them to sell on Gleyber for the promise of Peraza.


But, do the Blue Jays need a second baseman? You could say no as they have Whit Merrifield (112 OPS+) and Bo Bichette (127 OPS+) manning the middle infield. Or, you could point to Cavan Biggio (90 OPS+) and Santiago Espinal (74 OPS+) as the back-up middle infielders as an area where an upgrade could be useful. I'd say Gleyber's 112 OPS+ and +1.9 bWAR could find a spot with the Blue Jays.


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In this trade, the Yankees would be getting back two infielders in High-A from the Blue Jays.


The first is Cade Doughty, the Blue Jays #8 prospect on the MLB Pipeline and a current second baseman/third baseman. He was a 2nd round draft pick of the Blue Jays in 2022 out of LSU, has a very consistent above-average toolset across his game, and has a very high ceiling as a third baseman according to reports. He's a prospect who could move up the minors- and rankings- quick.


The second is Josh Kasevich, the Blue Jays #13 prospect and a current shortstop/third baseman. Much like Doughty, he was another 2nd round draft pick in 2022 out of the University of Oregon, has a very consistent above-average toolset, and has a very high ceiling, though as a shortstop.


Between the two, it's never a bad idea to have more great middle infield prospects as the position is always in demand at the MLB level.


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While the trade comes out to be a big net loss for the Yankees according to the figures from BaseballTradeValues.com with this trade, I quite like the idea of the trade and the framework it was built around. However, I'd want to see the Blue Jays add more- maybe a guy like Spencer Horowitz (TOR #18 prospect, Left-Hand Hitting, 1st Base Prospect in Triple-A, +2.0 MTV)- could be the final piece of the deal.


Ethan's Reaction: It needs a bit more work and would need to be an extremely comfortable deal for me to make it, especially if Torres was to be traded to a rival, and especially if this was a single trade while the Yankees were going to keep around Harrison Bader and try to take a shot at the playoffs this year. There would have to be a better match in value for an in-division trade like this (like adding Horowitz), so I could see it being a decent framework.

 

Trade #3: "A Little Bit of Both"

Submitted By: ColeMitch22 (Link)


Proposed Trade:

Diamondbacks Get: Clay Holmes (RHP, +8.4 MTV) Yankees Get: Jorge Barrosa (OF, +4.2 MTV), Yu-Min Lin (LHP, +4.7 MTV) = +8.9 MTV


The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the biggest surprise of the 2023 season. They are a budding team that could be looking to trying to prove that their success this year is not a fluke. If so, given their lack of success since 2001, and their playing in a tough NL West, they could be making moves as serious buyers.


One place that needs no consideration for any team looking to buy is bullpen help. Every playoff team will be looking for an upgrade or an extra arm or two that can handle big innings. The Texas Rangers got ahead of this by acquiring Aroldis Chapman at the end of June from the Kansas City Royals. Though considerations could be made about if a bullpen arm is the most worthwhile consideration, given the value of players in this deal, it would still allow the Diamondbacks to make more moves if they felt they needed to do so.


Clay Holmes has a 2.27 ERA (187 ERA+) over 42 games and 39.2 innings with 49 strikeouts this season, and he is under control through the end of the 2024 season. Apart from 2 bad performances last July, he has been a top-tier reliever for the Yankees since coming from the Pirates at the 2021 trade deadline (for Hoy Park and Diego Castillo, no less). The Yankees have an overabundance of relievers and could desire trading Holmes now as a 30 year old. Remember: relief pitchers are extremely volatile.


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Coming back to the Yankees in this deal would be the Arizona Diamondbacks #10 and #12 prospects from the MLB Pipeline.


The Diamondbacks #10 prospect is a left-handed pitcher named Yu-Min Lin, a 20 year old out of Chinese Taipei (or, also known as Taiwan). He already throws 4 pitches at an average to above-average clip and he a projects as a starter with a ceiling that is limited to being at least a mid-rotation piece. He is currently in Double-A and it looks like some improvements to his fastball (a Yankee specialty, as addressed in the first trade) that could really raise his stock further.


The Diamondbacks #12 prospect is a switch-hitting, 22-year-old outfielder currently playing in Triple-A named Jorge Barrosa. Though he has a smaller frame which keeps his power potential low, that is really the only negative on him. He has arguably the best outfield glove in the Diamondbacks organization (which includes the likes of Druw Jones and Corbin Carroll), has a lot of speed, and has a patient eye at the plate. He's just a short jump away from the majors and could be considered for an outfield spot on a Yankees team if they decided to sell on the likes of Bader, Jake Bauers, or Billy McKinney. (Personally, I'd sell all three and also bring up Everson Pereira to see what he can do.)


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At one point, top of the line relief pitchers were going for insane rates on the trading market. When the Yankees traded Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller they got back multiple prospects who were- at the time- comfortably in the Top 100. Unfortunately, however, that market has stalled a bit, though these two players do greatly pique my interest.


Ethan's Reaction: Unless the Yankees firmly believe they can fix all that is wrong with this team over the offseason for a push in 2024 (spoiler: it's not likely), it's not worth it to keep around a 30/31-year-old Clay Holmes. They have plenty of other good relievers- and pitching prospects- that could take his spot and as an organization the Yankees are prone to making a great bullpen. I'm also a sucker for any deal with left-handed pitching or shorter, speedy outfielders (because that was me, way back when), so having both in a deal is very enticing. I'd do it.

8 Comments


jjw49
Jul 28, 2023

Ethan you were on this scenario but it turns out it’s the White Sox not the Yankees relative to Dodgers!

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jjw49
Jul 28, 2023

Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly Dealt to Dodgers from White Sox! Dodgers are off board as trading partner for Yankees and I hate to say it but it feels like Cashman won’t be a seller until Monday if Yankees get waxed in Baltimore.

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jjw49
Jul 28, 2023

This weekend in Baltimore will tell you all you need to know about what Cashman will or will not do!

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Paul Semendinger
Paul Semendinger
Jul 28, 2023
Replying to

It's another indication that the team is run poorly.


We all know about small sample sizes and yet, the Yankees are going to wait to decide if they're contenders or not based upon a weekend series?

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Cary Greene
Cary Greene
Jul 28, 2023

I'm obviously in favor of trading with a team that is trying to make a serious World Series push and if they need starting pitching or bullpen help, the Yankees have that and they can and should look to capture can't miss-prospects in return, prospects who can help accelerate the undewhelming partial youth movement that the team is engaged in. Doing this requires the Yankees to be discerning -- something Brian Cashman is not!


My biggest concern is that Cashman flushes more talent he should have kept. For example, Cashman's crew was way off base regarding Clarke Shmidt, who has proven Yankees internal scouts dead wrong. Many here even wrote in the past that Schmidt was better suited for a…


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Cary Greene
Cary Greene
Jul 28, 2023

Nice effort again and a fun follow up in the series Ethan! I think this was the best read on the internet today, regarding the Yankees, should they decide to sell at the Deadline. Here's my thoughts and thank you for "provoking" them with your excellent writing Ethan!


Regarding trading with the Dodngers and taking into consideration that they've already adressed their infield issue with the recent trade with the Guardians for Rosario, as you pointed out abvove, the Dodgers will very clearly be looking for pitching help and here's why I say that.


Given that LA has the 5th best offense in MLB (OPS+ of 110), I would think that they're going to focus more on pitching at the…


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jjw49
Jul 28, 2023
Replying to

You had me ….. and then you didn’t…. imho Ohtani will not leave the West Coast for NY but otherwise trading with Dodgers makes the most sense to me and they need pitching and moving the players you mention Cortes, King, Holmes makes a lot of sense for NY. Torres to LA would be smart move also. …. I think all of your suggestions certainly hinge on the Baltimore series and if Yankees get spanked I could see a lot of these players being moved.

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