Bring on the Toronto Blue Jays

By E.J. Fagan

October 4, 2025

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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The Boston Red Sox were a scary team to face in a three game series. Garrett Crochet was not only one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2025, but he matches up incredibly well against the Yankees left-handed lineup. Add on a lefty-heavy bullpen and the Red Sox were able to neutralize a lot of the Yankees strengths. There’s a reason why the Yankees lost so many games to Boston this year. Yet the Yankees were able to pull out wins in Games 2 and 3.

Now they face the Toronto Blue Jays in the playoffs for the first time ever. While they just managed to hold on to a division lead against a charging Yankees squad, Toronto is an inferior team to the Red Sox, especially against the Yankees.

Here is the all-righty rotation that Toronto will throw out:

• Game 1: Kevin Gausman, 3.59 ERA, 3.42 xERA

• Game 2: Shane Bieber, 3.57 ERA, 3.84 xERA

• Game 3: Trey Yesavage, 3.21 ERA, 4.14 xERA (14 innings, barely pitched above High-A).

  
  

That’s pretty underwhelming stuff. The Yankees are probably at a slight disadvantage against Gausman, but only because they have to pitch Warren or Gil in Game 1. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon in Games 2 and 3 will be strong favorites, and Cam Schlittler in Game 4 might be better than any of them.

The Jays' bullpen isn’t much better:

Toronto has relied on a high powered offense to win games in 2025. And they definitely have some real weapons in George Springer and Vlad Guerrero Jr. The Blue Jays were second in runs per game in the American League behind the Yankees, roughly equivalent to Boston in third place.

But, like Boston, one of their best hitters won’t play against the Yankees. Bo Bichette is out with a knee injury. Toronto’s roster is pretty deep behind Bichette and their two stars, with lots of above average hitters like Dalton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk and Addison Barger. But can that group compete with the Yankees? Here’s every starter in the series by wRC+, Yankees underlined.

• Aaron Judge 204 wRC+

• George Springer 166 wRC+

• Giancarlo Stanton 158 wRC+

• Vlad Guerrero Jr 137 wRC+

• Ben Rice 133 wRC+

• Trent Grisham 129 wRC+

• Jazz Chisholm 126 wRC+

• Cody Bellinger 125 wRC+

• Dalton Varsho 122 wRC+

• Alejandro Kirk 111 wRC+

• Addison Barger 107 wRC+

• Nathan Lukes 103 wRC+

• Ernie Clement 98 wRC+

• Austin Wells 97 wRC+

• Ryan McMahon 86 wRC+

• Andreas Gimenez 70 wRC+

• Anthony Santander 61 wRC+

• Antony Volpe 83 wRC+

  
  

The Yankees are just a bit better across the board. Springer and Guerrero are great, but Judge and Stanton are better. McMahon, Wells and Volpe are bad hitters, but can match Clement, Gimenez and Santander. But I’d argue that the biggest advantage for the Yankees is in the middle: Rice, Bellinger, Grisham and Chisholm are each way better than any of the middle of Toronto’s lineup.

There’s a reason why Toronto’s expected record based on runs scored/allowed record comes out to 9 wins few than the Yankees. The Yankees are a better team.

Could the Yankees stumble in a short series? Of course, especially given how the Blue Jays get to face Will Warren or Luis Gil rather than Max Fried in Game 1. But if you even out all of the randomness of baseball, the Yankees should win every game.

Yankees in 3.