Can the Yankees Win the World Series?

Can the Yankees Win the World Series?

By Cary Greene

October 1, 2025

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NOTE - This article was written before the first game of the Wild Card Series, but the bigger points remain.

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After a thrilling end to the MLB regular season, the Yankees now find themselves preparing for their American League Wild Card series with their arch rivals - none other than the Red Sox. Who could have predicted that the Brewers would earn the top spot in the National League or that it would be the Reds and not the Mets who secured the final playoff berth? Truth be told, I couldn’t be more elated that Juan Soto gets to watch the postseason on television.

If MLB history holds true, any team with below average regular season pitching has almost no chance of winning the World Series, unless somehow, their pitching staff delivers above average pitching during the playoffs all the way through to the World Series. This means that it would take a near miracle for a team like the Mariners to win a championship this season. Though Seattle certainly has a good offense (5th best in MLB), they very likely don’t have enough pitching to get it done.

All of the other playoff teams, besides the Mariners, had above average team pitching this season. Dating all the way back to 1903, World Series champions have averaged a 114 ERA+ during the regular season. This means that the Reds (119), Padres (118), Phillies (117), Brewers (116) and the Guardians (114) should all be seen as very dangerous postseason teams this year.

Meanwhile, the Yankees regular season pitching was only good for a 105 ERA+ this year. Though there is no correlation at all between three outcome baseball and winning World Series championships, can the Yankees use their top ranked offense to bash their way to a title this postseason? Or, will outstanding postseason pitching neutralize the Yankees offense and will an opponent send the Yankees packing once again?

This season, the Yankees had the top offense in MLB, posting a 118 OPS+, with the Cubs (116) and the Dodgers (114) next. The Yankees led the League in home runs (274), RBI’s (820) slugging percentage (.455), total bases (2,488) and walks (639). The Bombers also finished second in OBP (.332) despite striking out (1,463) the third most in MLB.

Will this be the year that the Yankees break their playoffs drought, which stands now at 15 seasons and counting? Can Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Standon demolish postseason pitching this year, while other key Yankees like Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm and Ben Rice make opponents pay for pitching around the big boppers?

Perhaps the more important question to ask is this: Will Yankees pitching be able to dominate the postseason offenses that will be facing? Down the stretch, against the easiest schedule in MLB, Yankees team pitching looked pretty good as the Yankees finished their last ten games, going 9-1. The Yankees had the 27th easiest schedule over their final 30 games and they tied the with the Guardians, who like the Yankees, played at a blistering 22-8 clip.

Finishing the season with a .580 winning percentage, they’re feeling good about themselves and they’re relatively healthy as they get ready to face the Red Sox, a team they went 4-9 against this season. Considering that the Yankees went 25-34 (.424) against this season’s collection of postseason teams, the points I’ve made above about championship caliber starting pitching being very difficult to beat in the postseason (even for very good offenses) should be resonating at this point.

If the Yankees can get past the dominating lefty Garrett Crochet, or if they can reach the tough to face Brayan Bello and then perhaps force a decisive game three, they might be able to dispatch the Red Sox. More importantly, how will Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Cam Schlittler and perhaps Luis Gil position the Yankees bullpen during the Red Sox series and beyond?

Without right fielder Roman Anthony, who went down with a strained oblique back on September 2nd, the Red Sox have been .500 team. Anthony’s .398 OBP and .859 OPS, perched atop the Sox lineup, really impacted their offense. The Yankees are catching a big break facing the Anthony-less Red Sox in a short series.

Down the stretch, Max Fried went 5-0 (1.89 ERA) so he’ll be the obvious choice to start Game One of the ALWCS vs the Sox. Fried owns a 10-10 postseason record over the span of his career, to go along with a 5.10 ERA. In Game Two, the Yankees will likely go with Carlos Rodon, who went 3-2 down the stretch with a 2.61 ERA. Rodon owns a 1-3 career postseason record, posting a 6.75 ERA.

With both Luis Gil (5-0 / 2.93) and Cam Schlitler (4-1 / 3.65) both also pitching well down the stretch, the Yankees currently have healthy starting pitching as they enter the postseason. Outside of David Bednar, the Yankees bullpen didn’t pitch well at all over the month of September.

Thankfully, David Bednar (1.59 ERA / 7 Saves Month of September) has been a clutch pickup since being acquired from the Pirates at this year’s Trade Deadline. I had been clamoring for several seasons now for the Yankees to trade for Bednar and install him as their closer. Finally, at this year’s Deadline, Yankees GM Brain Cashman granted me my wish and Bednar was absolutely lights out over the final month of the season.

The rest of the Yankees bullpen has really struggled to get the job done. Yankees starters will need to go deep into games for the Yankees to have any chance at all of winning a World Series. Yankees manager Aaron Boone has established his small circle of trust - in the form of Fernando Cruz and Tim Hill providing higher leverage middle innings help while Luke Weaver and Devin Williams remain the key set up men for Bednar.

It also seems like Camilo Doval, another of Cashman’s Deadline pickups, has pitched well recently, so he’ll no doubt get the ball this postseason as well. Frankly, if Boone’s circle of trust doesn’t step it up several notches this postseason, the Yankees won’t get the job done as they’ll need some key help in getting leads to Bednar.

While the Yankees have the offense, they haven’t exactly proven themselves against this season’s crop of postseason opponents. With such a rickety bullpen, Bednar notwithstanding, I fear the Yankees will need to rely on their offense to put several runs on the board early in games. If the offense is up to this task, they could compensate for the shaky bullpen to a degree.

I do feel good about the Yankees starting pitching and if they continue the momentum they built up during the final month of the season and perhaps even elevate their performances a little bit more, they could combine with the Yankees offense coming up big this postseason and if all this happens, the Yankees might be able to bring the first ticker tape parade Manhattan has seen in 15 seasons!

First things first though, the Yankees need to focus on winning the ALWCS against the Red Sox. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, who went 17-13 in their last 30 games, await the winner.