Edward Cabrera is a Fine Stopgap Starter

By E.J. Fagan

January 2026

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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NOTE: This articles was scheduled, days ago, to run today at 10:00 a.m. The information is valuable, even though Cabrera is not a Yankee.

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The Yankees might soon acquire starting pitcher Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins.

They’ve been connected to him since at least the trade deadline. We have a solid rumor from Ken Rosenthal and Chris Kirschner at The Athletic. We have either a rumor or speculation from Talkin’ Yanks and others that the package will be Ben Hess and Dillon Lewis, although it’s unclear what their source is.

Lots of real smoke here. My guess is that the trade happens soon.

Usually I start with a player’s expected stats. We’ll get to that, but the case for Edward Cabrera is closer to the case for a top prospect. He’s got great stuff. The Yankees are confident that Matt Blake can make the most out of a pitcher like him.

Here’s what that stuff looks like:

Cabrera throws three fastballs, one of which is coded as a changeup. The two seamer and four seamer average 97 mph, while the change averages 94 mph. I imagine that mix is pretty nasty from a pitch tunneling perspective. He also throws a healthy mix of slider and curve. It’s a great starter profile on paper.

His results are a lot less impressive, which is in part why the Marlins were shopping him. He finally put together a healthy, decent season in 2025, which looked like this:

He made 26 starts and pitched over 100 innings for the first time. He struck out a decent number of guys. His control was a little below average but playable. And he got hit pretty hard. That’s basically 2024 Carlos Rodon with less durability.

Cabrera is about to turn 28 years old and earning early arbitration money. He’s under team control for three more years.

He absolutely makes the team better in 2026, especially before Cole and Rodon get back. He’s an injury risk, but I think you can bet on him starting the season healthy about as much as any other player.

But what about after they return? At that point, he’s competing with Will Warren, Clark Schmidt, Cam Schlittler and Luis Gil for two spots in the rotation. All five of them have some seriously potential for “better than average guy” upside, but only Cabrera was an average MLB pitcher for the full 2025 season. On the other hand, everyone else but Warren has been better than Cabrera at some point in their career.

Basically, I think we should temper our expectations for Edward Cabrera. He’s been a name floating out there for a bit, so it feels like an important acquisition. But I think the reality is that Cabrera is a playable major league starter with some upside that is about to cost more than the league minimum. The Marlins would rather cash in their chip for someone a little younger.

I’m okay with giving up Ben Hess and Dillon Lewis for a solid back-end starter with upside. Hess has a lot of promise as a power pitcher, but even if he stays healthy I think he’s much more likely to end up like a Will Warren (or Edward Cabrera) in the majors than a Carlos Rodon. He’s coming off a really successful first professional season, but he’s not making any top-100 lists. I’d rather trade him than a reliable mid-rotation prospect like Elmer Rodriguez or an uber upside guy like Carlos LaGrange. And Lewis is a 13th round pick who had an OPS in the .700s in the low minors last year.

If the trade comes in much bigger than that, I’ll be less happy. Cabrera’s value is that the Yankees have a budget and he costs less than a short term free agent like Justin Verlander but won’t cost so much that you worry about crowding the rotation or not being able to trade him. He’s not a guy for whom you give up a package that is going to sting.