For the 2026 Yankees, Spring Brings A Host of Hopes

by Paul Semendinger

***

NOTE - This article was originally published by the IBWAA in their newsletter Here's The Pitch on February 14, 2026

***

Spring Training. This is the time when fans and teams can hope that all works out in the most positive ways.

When Spring Training comes, it seems, anything, for any team, is possible.

As one looks at the 2026 New York Yankees, the team looks like it could be a contender.

A careful examination of the team also reveals that the club could be in for a long season.

For the Yankees to achieve their goal of winning the World Series in 2026, it seems that much will depend on hope. For the Yankees to win in 2026, they have to hope that a lot of things go right.

A quick analysis of the club, position-by-position, reveals that the 2026 Yankees are built on mountains of hope rather than likely outcomes.

First Base - The Yankees have to hope that Ben Rice can continue to emerge as a threat in the batting order. Last year blasted 26 homers. The Yankees have to hope his progression continues. They also have to hope that he does better than batting .208 against left-handed pitching and that he becomes a solid defender at first base.

Also in the fold, just now, is Paul Goldschmidt. The Yankees have to hope that his .245 batting average with only two home runs in the entire second half of last season isn’t a portent of things to come.

Second Base - In 2025, Jazz Chisholm had a career year earning 4.2 WAR. He had never before had even a 3.0 WAR season. The Yankees have to hope that Chisholm does not revert back to his previous levels.

Shortstop - In three seasons Anthony Volpe has never had an OPS+ of even 90. He has been a well-below MLB hitter. On top of this, his fielding in 2025 was a disaster. He led the league with 19 errors. Volpe is also coming off an injury. The Yankees have to hope on top of hope with even more hope regarding Volpe in 2026. Volpe needs to recover from his injury, field better, and be at least a serviceable hitter. That’s hoping for a lot.

Third Base - Ryan McMahon, a solid defender, will be entering his tenth big league season. When one sees his career as a hitter, it is another story. He has never had a season (by OPS+) where he has been even a league average hitter. McMahon’s best season were 2021 and 2022 when he posted a 98 OPS+ in both seasons. The Yankees have to hope that he hits better in 2026. (In this, the large sample size seems to indicate that this isn’t even something a rational team should hope for. It seems very unlikely.)

Left Field - Cody Bellinger began his career with three very impressive seasons. He then had three poor seasons. Following that, he has now enjoyed three solid seasons. Last year, Bellinger enjoyed a 5.1 WAR season, amazingly that was the second best of his career. The Yankees will hope that Bellinger doesn’t begin a second three-year slide beginning in 2026.

Centerfield - Trent Grisham had his career best season in 2025. For three seasons, from 2022 through 2024, he batted .191. Last year, he hit .235 with 34 homers - double his highest single season total ever. The Yankees have to hope that Grisham’s 2025 wasn’t a fluke.

Right Field - Since 2022, Aaron Judge has played baseball as well as any player ever. His numbers jump off the page. The 2026 Yankees will need Aaron Judge to not just be very good or great. The Yankees will need Judge to be super great yet again. They have to hope that they aren’t asking too much. (They might be. Very few players have had a period of sustains greatness as Judge has done the last few years.)

Catcher - Austin Wells came to the big leagues with the reputation that he would be a big-time hitter. He hasn’t been. He regressed last year batting only .219. The Yankees have to hope Wells finally figures it out in 2026.

Designated Hitter - Giancarlo Stanton is frequently injured. Over the last seven seasons, he has averaged only .9 WAR a year. (You read that correctly; he’s been below a 1-win player for a long time now. The Yankees have to hope that he stays healthy and is productive when he plays.

Starting Pitching - The Yankees’ starting staff is built on hope. They have to hope Max Fried stays injury free. They have to hope that Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt can return from injuries and be effective. The Yankees have to hope Cam Schlitter progresses and that Luis Gil rebounds from a poor 2025. The Yankees traded for Ryan Weathers who has never reached 100 innings pitched in any season. They have to hope that he finally does (and pitches well while doing that). Of note, for his career, Ryan Weathers has a 12-23, 4.93 record.

Bullpen - The 2026 Yankees bullpen is being bult on the shoulders of David Bednar and a collection of castoffs, could-be’s, and a host of hope.

Manager - Aaron Boone’s tenure as Yankees manager has been uninspired. The Yankees play a sloppy brand of baseball. Boone is often outmanaged by the better teams. The Yankees need that to change in 2026.

Outlook - In the end, for the Yankees to win in 2026, it seems like they’ll be hoping for much too much...

***

Paul Semendinger’s newest book, West Point at Gettysburg Vol. 1, was released in late December. The book is receiving tremendous positive reviews. Paul runs the Yankees site Start Spreading the News.