How I Want the AL Playoff Race to Play Out

E.J. Fagan
Sep 24
3 min read

By E.J. Fagan

September 24, 2025

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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The AL playoff race went from being incredibly boring to complete chaos. If the playoffs started before tonight's games, here is how they would be seeded:

The Yankees would play Boston, but Boston gets to start Garrett Crochet in Game 1 in New York. The winner of that series gets to play Toronto in the ALDS. I think that the Yankees would be favored, but I still don’t want to play Crochet. No way.

Tarik Skubal poses a similar hazard in Detroit. In all other playoff matchups, the Yankees can pretty much match or beat the starting pitcher on the opposing team.

So mission #1: Don’t play Detroit or Boston in a short series. How do we accomplish that? Here is my slightly insane definitely overthought plan:

First off, get the bye. The Yankees need to win two more games than the Blue Jays to secure the AL East. That’s a lot easier after the Jays lost last night: the Yankees could go 4-1 in their final games while Toronto goes 2-3. Or if the Yankees win all five games, Toronto would need to win 3 of 5. Let’s assume that the Yankees edge out the Blue Jays and don’t have to play the Wild Card round.

That scenario almost certainly involves Boston winning some games. If we assume that Boston wins the next two games against the Blue Jays, then they will probably take the #1 Wild Card seed, with Toronto finishing #2. They would play each other in the first round and play the 1 seed in the ALDS.

But do the Yankees want the 1 seed? The other side of the bracket is definitely weaker. If the Mariners go 5-0, the Yankees would have to go 3-2 to lose the 1 seed, with Toronto winning no more than 1 game. The Yankees would then play the winner of the Guardians/Astros/Tigers wild card round in the ALDS.

Of those teams, give me the Guardians. The Tigers have been awful lately, but you might end up seeing Skubal twice in a five game series. No thank you.

So here is what I want to happen:

Blue Jays finish the season 1-4, end up as the 2nd Wild Card seed.
Red Sox finish season 5-1, end up as the 1st Wild Card seed.
Tigers get knocked out by the Guardians.
Houston holds on to claim the 6th Wild Card.
Yankees finish 3-2, claiming the AL East and the 2nd seed with 92 wins.

Then:

Blue Jays beat the Red Sox. Seattle plays the Blue Jays in the ALDS.
The Guardians beat the Astros. Yankees play the Guardians in the ALDS at home.

So what are our rooting interests tonight?

In the Cleveland-Detroit series, I want Cleveland to win.
In the Boston-Toronto series, I want Boston to win.
In the Seattle-Colorado series, I want Seattle to win.

And for the weekend:

In the Boston-Detroit series, I want Boston to win.
- although I would be okay with both teams needing to win Game 162 on Sunday to make Detroit throw Skubal.
In the Toronto-Tampa series, I want Tampa to win.
In the Houston-St Louis series, I want Houston to win.
In the Dodgers-Mariners series, I want Seattle to win.
- A Seattle sweep would go a long way toward denying the Dodgers the division, although they’re probably the 3 seed no matter what, so it doesn’t matter too much.
I’d love it if the Yankees have the AL East decided for Game 162, and so can soft throw the game if necessary to ensure they are the #2 seed.