I'm Starting to Believe in Spencer Jones
- E.J. Fagan
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
By EJ Fagan
August 2026
***
Since his breakout minor league campaign in 2025, the last remaining question about Spencer Jones was his strikeout rate. Could he make enough contact to survive in the major leagues? The at the beginning of the 2026 season was no. He struck out at 42% in his first two stints. It wasn’t looking good. I was ready to write him off.
Then something changed. Since being called up on July 26th, Jones has a .788 OPS. But the numbers under the hood are even better: 25.5% strikeout rate with an expected batted line of .282/.374/.635. He’s just missed a bunch of home runs.
Even when you fold in the rough first two stretches of his MLB career, his Statcast page is starting to look real interesting:
Despite a 35% strikeout rate, his .332 xwOBA on the season is very playable. His 94.2 mph average exit velocity would rank 4th in the majors if he were qualified, tied with Pete Alonso and Munetaka Murakami. His 77.8 mph average bat speed would also be top 5 in the majors if he were qualified.
Since July 26th, the offensive numbers are even better. His 16.4% barrel/PA rate would be tops in the majors by a lot. His average exit velocity is actually down a hair, but still elite.
Jones’ speed has also been surprisingly great. The scouting reports were always mixed on how fast Jones is, with some saying that he was an elite burner and others suggesting he was just above average. Like a lot of us, the above average group underestimated what a long stride can do for your sprint speed.
His defense grades as slightly below average. I wonder what it would look like in center field rather than the smaller Yankee Stadium right field.
But how real is the hitting?
The major league sample is small. Even the most optimistic person wouldn’t bet on Jones striking out at 25.5% over the long term (if he does, he’s Aaron Judge 2.0). The question is where will he settle in at.
But something stands out to me: Jones struck out in just 31% of plate appearances at Triple-A. That’s down a lot from a consistent mid-to-high-30s in Double-A and Triple-A from 2024-2025. Still not great, but way more playable.
Let’s say that he settles in at 32% in the major leagues. There are a decent number of major league players making that work in 2026:
Kyle Schwarber, 34% strikeouts, 143 wRC+
Colson Montgomery, 33% strikeouts, 103 wRC+
Hunter Goodman, 33% strikeouts, 117 wRC+
Nick Kurtz, 32.5% strikeouts, 114 wRC+
Zach Neto, 32% strikeouts, 102 wRC+
There is some obvious survivorship bias here. Most players with a 32%+ strikeout rate are not major league hitters. But like a lot of these guys, Spencer Jones hits the ball hard enough to get a lot of hits on his limited balls in play. He also walks more than Montgomery and Neto. Add in solid center field defense and you could see a path toward a 4+. Jones becomes your Trent Grisham replacement next season.
And now we have to do our obligatory Aaron Judge comparison. I know, I know. Comparing anyone to the GOAT is fraught. But Jones and Judge are very similar players, both physically and in batted ball terms. Judge was a miracle, but the comparison is not insane.
Jones is 25 years old, the same age that Judge was when he broke out with a 31% strikeout rate. Judge actually peaked at 31.5% in 2019 while still managing to post a .402 xwOBA. I’d expect a pretty similar performance from Jones if he can manage a similar strikeout rate. Judge hit .276/.386/.554 before his second breakout in 2022.
Even if Jones ends up around 34%, Kyle Schwarber is pulling off a .248/.371/.532 batting line with the same strikeout rate. And Schwarber can’t play center field.
We’ll see how well Jones continues to hit as major league pitchers adjust back to him. But I think that I’m a believer.
Reality is Jones must replace Grishman in CF and the more AB's he gets his numbers will improve. He is a young player who needs to play.... plain and simple. He has talent, power and a future with the Yankees. ....Play the kid!
Very early. I'm gonna wait for end of season stats. But, he's not looking overwhelmed and is putting some quality ABs together. In the field he moves very smoothly for a kid his size. So far, so good. He needs to learn to take certain pitches in certain counts. But as you correctly pointed out, his K rate is dropping. So pitch recognition is improving.
If I were Spencer Jones, I would volunteer to clean Shohei Ohtani's dojo 3 days a week and see if he cant eventually sit down and have some green tea with him. Ohtani has no wasted movement during the pitchers delivery that could impact his timing. If Jones is going to model his swing after Ohtani, he needs to understand how the master times a pitch.
There have been hall of famers who were successful batting out of a crouch, there have been hall of famers who were successful with a more upright approach. Rarely has anyone standing 6'7" been successful going from an extreme crouch to an upright stance - shorter players have occasionally done it -- Rickey Henderson…
Another thing to like about Jones is that his batted balls are right up the middle, his swing produces very balanced results
I may be the most vocal believer in Spencer Jones here at SSTN. He seems to have some super powers while he also has trouble with Kryptonite - in his case that would be offspeed pitches, changeups and slurves, that pitchers are starting to use against him in fastball counts.
Because he's always sitting dead-red on 4-seamers and due to all the movement in his stance, he's coming out of a crouched, open stance and into a more erect, square stance literally as the pitcher is letting the ball go. That's fine for flat fastballs but offspeed pitches often drop under his bat - or he's too far out in front of them to make contact.
I've maintained all along…