It's Spencer Jones Time in the Bronx

By EJ Fagan

May 9, 2026

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The following post comes from EJ Fagan's Substack, Baseball Is Life. It is shared with permission.

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Jasson Dominguez is heading to the IL with a shoulder sprain. Spencer Jones will take his place on the roster. Jones has an enormous ceiling, but also huge flaws in his game. Let’s talk about them.

Before 2025, the Spencer Jones story was mostly about unrealized potential. He was strong, tall and athletic, but the numbers were merely fine. He posted high-.700s OPSes in 2023 and 2024 as a 22-23 year old mostly in Double-A. Those numbers would have been okay if they weren’t accompanied by a 29% strikeout rate and some of the worst swing-and-miss rates in the minors. Basically, he was a batting practice star who was merely holding his own in games.

That all changed in 2025. His season was divided roughly in thirds:

• In April, for the first time, he started hitting for real power. He hit .228/.372/.554 through May 3rd, but with a 36% strikeout rate. He probably got a little unlucky on balls in play, but overall the results were only a little bit encouraging. He went on the IL with an injury on May 4th.

• Jones comes back on May 29th and explodes. Through July 24th, he hit .362/.434/.791 (!) with a more reasonable 28% strikeout rate and 20 home runs.

• Around the same time that Aaron Judge injured his elbow, Jones suffers a significant back injury. Because they might need him, the Yankees don’t push him to the IL. But he hits .219/.289/.383 for the remainder of the season with a 42% strikeout rate. Yikes.

The overall numbers are strong at .274/.362/.571, but you can decide how much weight to put on the various segments. Personally, I discount everything after the back injury. He had a 1.116 OPS on July 24th and 31% strikeout rate.

Fast forward to 2026. He’s mashing again at Triple-A:

Basically, he’s replicating his performance in 2025 before the back injury. He’s the best qualified prospect at Triple-A by xwOBA, first in xSLG and second in average exit velocity (he would be second best in the MLB, behind only James Wood). If you cut out a rough first week, Jones’ strikeout rate dips to 28% and and xwOBA goes up to .454.

But he’s also terrible at making contact. His xBA is actually pretty good at .265, but Jones swings and misses more than just about anyone. He’s got decent strike zone judgment, but pretty much everyone who writes about prospects on the internet is skeptical that he’ll be able to be a productive MLB hitter.

But I’ve always believed that prospect evaluators have a lack of imagination about what makes a successful MLB player. Consider what James Wood is doing this season:

He’s basically Spencer Jones with awful defense in right field, while Jones should be able to hold his own in center. Wood is thriving despite a 33% strikeout rate because his batted balls are deadly.

And lots of other players are surviving in the majors with high strikeout rates. Munetaka Murakami has a 34% strikeout rate and .391 xwOBA. O’Neil Cruz has the same with a .360 xwOBA. Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Kurtz and Zach Neto are all over 31%.

Obviously, these guys are all in the majors and not Triple-A. But there’s a lot of room for a decent centerfielder who hits the ball so hard that a few extra hits will get through the defense.

So yeah, I’m optimistic about Jones. I think there’s a world where he’s a successful .740 OPS hitter, a more toolsy version of Ryan McMahon. Or he could be Jorge Soler. Or Kyle Schwarber. Or James Wood. All are on the table, as is the bad version of Joey Gallo or a complete flame out. I think there’s a pretty good chance that all those prospect evaluators have egg on their face real quick.

A few random notes ahead of his debut:

• Jones has had pretty extreme platoon splits since his breakout. He might need to sit against lefties for now.

• Jones has 80-grae makeup. Dude gives off confident-but-not-arrogant, professional MLBer vibes in every interview.

• Jones and Ben Rice are best friends.

• I’ve heard mixed reports in his defense. The line a few years ago was that he was a 60+ speed guy, but I’ve seen people doubt he has the speed for center. Maybe there’s some cognitive dissonance at watching such a big dude run. I’ll be watching closely.