"Leading Off, For The New York Yankees..."

"Leading Off, For The New York Yankees..."

By Ethan Levine

August 11, 2026

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"Let’s try a little role play.  I’ll pretend I’m Brad Pitt in Moneyball, and you’re Jonah Hill.

Me: “Hey, you,” snaps and points “What does a productive leadoff hitter do?”

You: “He gets on base.”

Exactly, well done.  You can pick up your Actor’s Equity union voucher on your way out.  

To begin the bottom of the eighth inning of the Yankees’ August 7th game against the Braves, Aaron Boone sent up Amed Rosario to pinch-hit for Trent Grisham.  The Yankees were trailing 1-0 and Rosario was replacing Grisham in the leadoff spot in the batting order.  Replacing Grisham in the leadoff spot is not a move Boone has made very often this year, including against left-handed pitchers.  But, as Michael Kay pondered on the broadcast, you wonder just how much patience the organization could have with receiving such little production at the top of the lineup.  For what it’s worth, Rosario would subsequently fly out to right field.

That quote from Kay registered as déjà vu.  I had the feeling we’ve all been wondering where our leadoff hitting has gone for at least a few years now.  So, I decided to look at the numbers, placing a particular emphasis on good old On-Base Percentage (OBP).  Don’t worry, xwOBA fans, you’ll get your moment of glory later.  For this piece, I specifically wanted to fixate on how little our most recent leadoff hitters get on base, regardless of the method.

As of the end of play on August 8th, the Yankees sport a season OBP of .309 out of the leadoff spot.  From 2023 through 2025, their OBPs out of the leadoff spot have been .306, .306, and .330, respectively.  For context, according to Baseball Reference a league-average OBP is approximately .320, much less what you would hope for from a table-setter.

But how do these numbers compare to Yankees teams of the past, and what can they tell us about where the Yankees of the present stand?  

If you add up those four OBP totals from 2023 through this season, you reach a sum of 1.251.  That sum is the lowest of any four-year stretch the Yankees have had since the 1970 through 1973 seasons.  Those four squads had a cumulative OBP of 1.242, or an average of .311 per season out of the leadoff spot.

The last time the Yankees’ leadoff hitters were this inept at getting on base, New Yorkers were spending their summers celebrating Knicks championships.  I guess it’s “déjà vu all over again.”

I wanted to compare the 2023-2026 Yankees leadoff hitters to some of the best leadoff-hitting four-year spans in franchise history, so I selected the best stretches across three separate eras: 1903-1950, 1951-1990, and 1991-present.  

Between 1903 and 1950, Yankees leadoff hitters had the highest cumulative OBP across a four-year period from 1927 through 1930.  In 1927, the year of Babe Ruth’s 60 home runs and Lou Gehrig’s 173-RBI MVP campaign, the entire season’s leadoff duties were handled by Earle Combs.  

Wait a minute.  Just one guy?  That seems like a crazy concept.  As we move forward, keep in mind that from the start of the 2023 season through today, the following players have each had at least 25 plate appearances at leadoff for the Yankees: DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe, Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Alex Verdugo, Jasson Dominguez, and Jake Bauers.

Back to Earle.  His 1927 numbers are positively brain-melting and paint a clear picture of where many of those 173 Gehrig RBIs came from.  His slash line was .356/.410/.510.  He hit 6 homers with 65 RBIs.  And 23 of his 231 hits were triples, which is still the franchise’s single-season record.  

Combs held down the first batting slot each of the four seasons in question.  Possibly the most striking figure of all, and the one that would be most foreign to us today, is that in each of those seasons Combs had at least twice as many walks as strikeouts!  Of the eleven players I mentioned above who have had at least 25 plate appearances in the leadoff hole since the start of 2023, only one has had more walks than strikeouts: Isiah Kiner-Falefa had 3 walks and 2 strikeouts in his mere 29 plate appearances. Oh, to have a Hall of Famer leading off.

The only player who offered any support to Combs was Samuel Byrd, a man most famously known as “Babe Ruth’s Legs,” as he frequently either pinch-ran for Ruth or substituted for him in the outfield.  He contributed 227 plate appearances in the leadoff spot between 1929 and 1930, with a weighted OBP of .381.

The Yankees’ cumulative OBP from 1927 through 1930 was 1.596.

Between 1951 and 1990, Yankees leadoff hitters had the highest cumulative OBP across a four-year period from 1985 through 1988.  On December 5th, 1984, the Yankees acquired another Hall of Famer to anchor the top of their lineup.  On that day, the Yankees traded Jay Howell and four of their top five prospects (Jose Rijo, Stan Javier, Tim Birtsas, and Eric Plunk) to Oakland for Rickey Henderson (the Yanks also received Bert Bradley and cash). Upon arrival, the Yankees promptly inked Henderson to a five-year deal.

Naturally, Henderson’s impact in the leadoff role was immediate.  His 1985 campaign featured a .315/.420/.517 slash line, with 24 homers and 72 RBIs.  The eventual MLB all-time stolen bases leader also swiped 80 bags that season, for good measure.  Rickey finished third in AL MVP voting while his teammate, 24-year-old Don Mattingly, took home the award.  

In 1986, while his OBP dropped to .358, he still contributed 28 homers, 74 RBIs and 30 doubles.  He added another 87 steals, marking the sixth straight season he had led the league in that statistic.  

1987 saw Henderson make two trips to the disabled list thanks to recurring hamstring injuries, at the cost of 67 games and the slow erosion of the organization’s confidence in him. While his OBP spiked, relative to ‘86, to .428, it did so in far fewer plate appearances.  Ultimately, manager Lou Piniella would publicly question Henderson’s commitment to the team. Knowing “Sweet Lou,” (arguably the original “Mr. Wonderful”), that sounds as though he had a soft spot for the guy.

After a more typically Henderson-esque performance in ‘88, including another… wipes glasses... 93 bag thefts, the “Man of Steal” wrapped up a four-year statistical clinic.  

Like Earle Combs, Henderson walked more times than he struck out in every season of this span.

Following the 1989 season, Yankees GM Bob Quinn traded Henderson back to the A’s due to a need for pitching help, as well as fears that the 30-year-old's skills were deteriorating.  Henderson would continue to play until he was 44, but who’s really counting.  Oh, and remember Eric Plunk, one of the top pitching prospects the Yankees had traded to the Bay in the first Rickey deal?  Well, he came back to the Bronx in the second one, as an established big leaguer.   

The Yankees’ cumulative OBP from 1985 through 1988 was 1.533. 

Finally, as we move on to our third and final era (1991-present), it should come as no shock that the Yankees had their highest cumulative OBP from the leadoff spot from 1996 through 1999.  Many of you probably have vivid memories of those idyllic years.  I wish I did.  Alas, I was four years old in ‘96, and more interested in Mister Rogers than Kenny Rogers (the pitcher, obviously).  

In ‘96, about half of the leadoff duties went to Wade Boggs, who the team had just re-signed to a new two-year contract after his previous three-year contract had expired.  He posted a .295/.384/.372 slash, granting the squad a fair amount of giddy-up (although not quite as much giddy-up as Boggs himself experienced following Game 6 of that year’s Fall Classic…Sorry for that one.  I’ll show myself out).

The balance of the leadoff workload was split between veteran Tim Raines and AL Rookie of the Year Derek Jeter.  Raines slashed .286/.376/.474 in 178 plate appearances, and Jeter posted .328/.380/.437 in 198 plate appearances.  In Game 1 of the ALCS that year, when fan Jeffrey Maier famously aided a long Jeter fly ball into one of the most controversial home runs in baseball history, Jeter was batting out of the 9 hole.  He went 4 for 5 in the game.  Raines led off that night, going 2 for 6.

Jeter and Raines split the top of the order in 1997, with Jeter accounting for about two thirds of the plate appearances.  And anyone remember Scott Pose? He went 5 for 27.  The team’s leadoff hitters combined for an OBP of .392.  

In February 1998, the Yankees sent LHP Eric Milton, SS Cristian Guzman (the Yankees probably figured they wouldn’t need another shortstop for a while), minor leaguers Brian Buchanan and Danny Moda, and $3 million cash to the Twins for sparkplug Chuck Knoblauch.  Minnesota was entering a rebuild phase and Knoblauch had requested a trade in an attempt to join a consistent contender.  

Knoblauch dominated the 1 hole through ‘98 and ‘99, averaging 167 hits across the two campaigns.  He additionally averaged 18 homers, 66 RBIs, 30 doubles and 29 steals.  Honorable mention goes to Homer Bush, who had a .442 average and .473 OBP in 57 plate appearances in ‘98. 

Is it ironic that the 1998 team, arguably the best MLB team assembled in the last 100 years, is the first one in this list without any future Hall of Famers setting the table?

The Yankees’ cumulative OBP from 1996 through 1999 was 1.527.

So, what can all of the bottomless data and memories we just recounted tell us about the Yankees of today?

Well, when the Yankees have exceptional leadoff hitting, they win, and they win big. In the twelve seasons spanning those three eras of the past we dove into, the Yankees won five championships.  Even though the Yankees failed to reach the playoffs in each year from 1985 through 1988, they still had a cumulative record of 361-285.  This equates to a winning percentage of .559, only 1.9% below their historic average.  You can chalk up that era’s relative lack of success to poor and thin pitching depth and stiff division competition, as well as front office and managerial instability.

When the Yankees can’t lead off effectively, history is less kind.  I mentioned towards the top that the Yankees teams of the most recent four seasons have had the worst cumulative OBP since the ‘70-’73 teams.  Those ‘70s squads went 334-307 for a winning percentage of .521, coming in 8.6% worse than the franchise’s all-time average. It’s critical to point out that this winning percentage is really being dragged up by their 93 wins in 1970.  The Yanks failed to make the playoffs in any of those four years.

Considering the winning records we’ve experienced each of the past four years, and the fact that the Yankees have made the playoffs two out of the last three years and appear to be on their way again in ‘26 (as of the time this piece is being penned), you may even say the Yankees have been outperforming expectations. Or maybe it’s the expanded divisions and wild card play…

And, finally, we reach the inevitable: what can the Yankees do about their putrid leadoff hitting, both for the remainder of this season and into the future?

First, for 2026: I hate to be Debbie Downer, but the answer is…not much.  They can either ride out the Grisham/Goldschmidt/occasionally Rice/occasionally Rosario platoon, or they can try something radical.  Paul Semendinger published a piece here in SSTN on August 8th in which he reasonably argued that the Yankees should avoid the temptation to raise George Lombard, Jr. in the batting order too quickly.  The same could (and should) be said about Spencer Jones.  However, he is the only other threat currently in the lineup who has not had his shot hitting leadoff.  Yes, he has a massive swing-and-miss problem.  However, in the minors the last two years he has gotten on base, notably to the tune of a .362 OBP in 2025 (split between Somerset and Scranton) and a .385 OBP over 233 plate appearances with Scranton earlier in 2026.  I should caveat this thought by reiterating that I said the Yankees had the option of doing something radical.  This move would fall into that bucket.  If I had to pick my poison for the remainder of this season, I would maintain the status quo until some major pieces return from injury and cross my fingers that the pitching can carry the team to the promised land.  

Don’t get your hopes up too much for next year, either.  It’s going to be relatively slim pickings.  But options will exist outside the organization.  

Assuming Anthony Volpe isn’t a functional second baseman by the start of next season, the Yankees will likely have an opening there with Jazz Chisholm’s impending free agency.   With Trent Grisham and Paul Goldschmidt also due to depart, that leaves an additional hole at leadoff.  The Yankees could address these needs by attempting to swing a trade for White Sox second baseman Sam Antonacci.  

Antonacci’s defensive metrics don’t pop out at you, but Chicago has frequently been playing him in left field, where his defense has faced a steep learning curve.  He is much more naturally a second baseman, and a move to the Bronx would allow him to settle in there permanently.  And how does he get on base?  Admirably.  As of August 9th, he has a well above-average .361 OBP and a league- average slugging percentage in 382 plate appearances on the season.  His xBA is in the 91st percentile of all of baseball.  And, critically, his whiff rate is absolutely elite at 14.7%, placing him within the 94th percentile!  Finally, his xwOBA is .350, far surpassing anything the Yankees have fielded from the leadoff spot in recent years.  

See, xwOBA fans, I told you I wouldn’t let you down!

The Yankees could also try the free agency route.  Assuming Atlanta will exercise Ronald Acuña, Jr.’s club option next year, he won’t be on the board.  He also has a terrifying lower-body injury history, so I would proceed with caution regardless.  

Instead, the Yankees could make a pitch for upcoming free agent outfielder Randy Arozarena.  Assuming everyone comes back healthy, signing Arozarena would create a surplus in the outfield, allowing the Yankees to flip Heliot Ramos for additional offense or relief help.  This scenario also dictates the Yankees moving Aaron Judge to a more permanent DH role and staff their outfield with Arozarena, Bellinger, and Jones.  For this thought exercise, we’re assuming Stanton spends all of next year on the IL and the Yankees then buy out the following year’s club option for $10 million.

As of August 9th, Arozarena has a season OBP of .372 in 470 plate appearances, and .347 for his career.  While he whiffs quite a bit more than Antonacci, his Batting Run Value of 20 places him in the 92nd percentile.  He knows how to create runs.  He’s earning $15.65 million during his final year of arbitration so expect him to aim even higher in free agency, but when you recall the Yankees just spent $22 million on Grisham this season that hardly seems like a barrier to entry.  He has played at least 150 games each year since 2022, so his steady and consistent presence should make a nice right-handed addition to the top of the Yankees’ lineup.

So that's plenty from me.  What do you think the Yankees’ next moves should be to address this chasm in their roster?  Let me know in the comments!  And, of course, thanks for reading!"