Looking at the 40-Man Roster (Part 1 of 4)

by James Vlietstra

October 27, 2025

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The New York Yankees 2025 season has been over for a couple of weeks now.  I have been contemplating what to expect and reading other people's views.  Some are written from an unrealistic fan's point of view.  Others are overly pessimistic, based on their feelings of the front office.  Reality will probably be right in the middle of the two. I am going to try to state the facts, but will throw a few possibilities at the dart board as well.

I can't say that the 2025 season was a complete failure.  Overall, they won 94 regular season games.  They hosted the Wild Card round, and advanced to the ALDS.  However, that's where the positives ended.  The matchup against the Blue Jays proved to be a disaster all season, which is what relegated them to the WC round in the first place. Their starting pitching there, overall, was atrocious which put them in a hole they were unable to climb out of, resulting in an early exit.

This, unfortunately, has become the norm.  It has now been a generation since the great dynasty of the 90s.  Since 2001, which is now 25 years, they have only managed to win one only World Series.  For any other organization, that is acceptable.  For the NEW YORK YANKEES? Not so much.  

I heard someone ask the other day if Aaron Judge is the greatest Yankee to never win a championship.  With apologies to Don Mattingly, I have to admit that yes, he most certainly is.  And the problem is they are constructed poorly.  Alex Rodriguez said that they have three left handed catchers and five DHs and he is not wrong,  They need to take a look at the roster and see who is on it that is actually contributing to them bringing home a championship.

Before I go into a deep dive into the team's 40-man roster, I want to just spend a moment to preach to the choir.  We all understand the way that the Yankees do business.  Hal Steinbrenner, on behalf of his ownership group, is in charge.  The Steinbrenner family is not independently wealthy outside of their ownership of the Yankees.  There are lots of family members that are able to live their lifestyle based on revenue that the team brings in.  They are not going to dip into their pockets to assure a world title.

Hal is obviously very comfortable with the way Brian Cashman and his front office runs the team.  With the bottom line much more important than some other teams, they are thrilled with the return that is generated year to year.  Aaron Boone is not a puppet the way that some fans believe, but actually is 100% on board with the front office thought process.  So the fact that the players love him and he is media savvy means he is very unlikely to be replaced unless there were to be a complete meltdown.  Not to mention that any replacement of Boone would likely be an unknown clone of Boone.

So, in short, unless the current ownership were to sell, the way they run the business is very unlikely to change anytime soon. They will, for the most part, keep the core of the team together, perhaps sign a free agent or two, and talk about some of their young talent that's in the minors that they, more than any other team, will likely never promote to the Major League roster.

So I am going to go through the Yankees 40-man roster, alphabetically.  I am assuming that most people reading my article know how it works, but will give a quick refresher course.  MLB organizations acquire young players, basically, two ways.  In January, the international free agent market opens (often with players that have had agreements since they were 13) and the best crop of 16 year olds, usually from Latin America.  In July, high school and college kids get drafted.  

The international kids and high school kids have five years of unlimited team control.  College players have four.  At that point, if they are not added to the 40-man roster, they are eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  That's a draft that takes place during the Winter Meetings which allows an opportunity for players to make the Majors. This only affects a team's top prospects.  Others are eligible to become minor league free agents after seven years.

If a player is added to the 40-man roster, he can not be removed without being exposed to waivers, meaning every other team has the opportunity to take him.  Once a player is added to the roster, he still has three option years, meaning the team can send that player to the minors at any point during that year.

Depending upon service time (actual time on the 26-man M-L roster/Injured List), a player is still under team control for six years.  The first three, typically the salary is around the league minimum, which is currently $760,000.  Followed by three years of arbitration, salary increasing based on merit, but limited to one team bidding.  Finally, after 10-12 years of team control, a player has the right to become a free agent and can choose where he wants to go.

The Yankees currently have 44 players on their 40-man roster because players on the 60 Day Injured List do not count towards the roster until after the World Series when there no longer is a designation.  My expectation is that around half of these players will not be on the roster by opening day of next season.  Free agents will leave.  New ones will sign.  Players will be added  before the Rule 5 deadline.  Trades will happen.  Players will not have options left and will not make the opening day roster and will be designated for assignment and picked up by another team.  Some of these players could stick around and return after they sign a minor league contract after the fact.

I will give a quick synopsis of each player, including their age as of opening day and my guess as to whether they are still on the 40-man roster on opening day.

Michael Arias - 24, RHP The Yankees acquired the hard thrower last offseason.  He pitched 29.2 minor league innings.  He averaged 10.9 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9.  He has one more option year left.  Likelihood of keeping his roster spot: 6/10

David Bednar - 31, RHP Was one of the few trade deadline acquisitions that worked out well.  He produced a WAR of 2.2 and a salary of $5.9M in 2025.  Leading candidate to be the closer in 2026.  Estimated to earn $7M in his final year of arbitration before becoming a free agent. Likelihood of keeping his roster spot: 10/10

Cody Bellinger - 30 CF/1B  He has a $25M player option that he is expected to opt out of.  He is not eligible for the Qualifying Offer as he has already received it once.  The Yankees traded for him last offseason and he produced a WAR of 5.0 this year while providing versatility by playing two key positions above average.  He was a very good fit for the team and he proved very capable, however he is likely to sign a contract in the range of 6 years and worth $180-210M. Likelihood of keeping his roster spot: 6.5 (all 30 teams are able to bid on him)

Jake Bird - 30, RHP  He was acquired at the trade deadline and promptly disappointed.  He produced a WAR of -0.5 for the team before being sent to the minors.  He earned a little over $1M and is arbitration eligible, likely earning a slight raise.  He has one more option left.

Likelihood of keeping his roster spot: 8/10

Paul Blackburn - 32, RHP  Between the Mets and Yankees he earned $4M and produced a WAR of -0.5.  He is a free agent. Likelihood of keeping his roster spot: 0/10

Jose Caballero - 29, SS/3B/OF  Between the Rays and Yankees he produced 2.9 WAR and led the Majors with 49 stolen bases.  He provided versatility and speed off the bench.  He is under control for four more years.  As a Super 2 arbitration eligible player, he is expected to earn about $2.5M. Likelihood of keeping his roster spot: 10/10

Oswaldo Cabrera - 27 3B/OF  He played only 34 games before suffering a season ending ankle injury.  He produced a WAR of 0.4 in his utility role.  He has two more options remaining and this is his first year of arbitration.  He will likely earn around $1M.  He is expected to be able to return from the injury perhaps by Memorial Day. Likelihood of keeping his roster spot: 7/10

Jeimer Candelario - 32, 1B/3B  Though not on the Yankees roster, he currently is under team control.  The Cincinnati Reds will pay him the $13M he is owed next year.  He produced a -0.9 WAR before they released him.In 61 games for Scranton, he hit .203/.289/.357/.646

Likelihood of keeping his roster spot: N/A (1/10 being they place him on the 40)

Jazz Chisholm - JR 28, 2B   Once the Yankees left him at his best position, he produced 4.2 WAR and became the third Yankee ever to join the 30/30 Club.  He earned $5.8M last year and is expected to earn close to double that next season. Do they try to extend him with a 6 year/ $130M offer? Likelihood of keeping his roster spot: 10/10

Gerrit Cole - 35, RHP  After missing the entire 2025 season with Tommy John Surgery, Cole is still owed $108M over the next three years.  His original 14 month time table would mean he should be ready to return around Memorial Day, barring any setbacks. Likelihood of keeping his roster spot: 10/10

More tomorrow!!!