by EJ Fagan
January 11, 2024
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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The Yankees and Marcus Stroman are talking. This rumor feels real.
Stroman is an odd pitcher. He’s famously short. He’s a smart guy. He sometimes says mildly controversial, although not problematic things. At 33, he’s older than he feels.
He’s also been a consistently strong starter throughout his career. His ERA over the last six seasons: 3.95, 3.50, 3.02, 3.22, 5.54, 3.09. His xFIP has been even more consistent, hovering right around 3.50 every year. He’s made 25 or more starts in every season other than 2018.
The Yankees need stability. Cortes and Rodon are wild cards. Hopefully one will come all the way back to being a strong #2 starter. Clark Schmidt will be fine as a #4 or #5. Stroman would comfortable slot in between the two as a guy who will help a strong offense win games. His ground ball approach should work in Yankee Stadium.
That said, I have concerns.
Stroman turns 33 in May. He’s a small guy. I’m worried that he won’t continue to be productive deep into his 30s. Notable Short Starter Pedro Martinez started to decline at 34, and Stroman doesn’t have Pedro’s otherworldly talent and is coming off his highest ERA since 2018.
It doesn’t help that Stroman was injured in 2023. He suffered a hip injury some time late in the year. His ERA was 2.88 on July 15th. Then, things went poorly:
Stroman pitched three more starts before landing on the IL, allowing 8 runs in nine innings. He returned early to try and get the Cubs into the playoffs, but was awful. His fastball velocity dipped 1-2 mph. In two short relief/rehab appearances and two short starts, Stroman allowed 5 runs in 8 innings. His ERA rose to 3.95 on the season.
Stroman then opted out of the the final year and $21 million of his Cubs contract.
Is he healthy? The good news is that Stroman has never had a serious arm or shoulder injury. Other than his brief return from injury in September, he’s been a consistent 92-94 mph pitcher during his current run of success.
I think that a healthy Stroman is going to be a pretty good #3 pitcher in 2024. I’m not sure how much longer he can continue to be productive though. Assuming his hip looks good, I could see the Yankees signing him to something like a $65/3 year contract. I’d be on board at that price, but not much more.
