More Checking in on the Yankee Farm System

by EJ Fagan

July 23, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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The other day, we checked in how Yankee hitting prospects were doing. While a few lower ranked prospects are having breakout seasons, it’s mostly bad news for the top guys. Is pitching any better? Let’s see.

As before, we’re working off the MLB.com Top 30 prospects list.

Ranked Number 3 - Chase Hampton, SP

There was serious hype for Hampton in Spring Training. He broke out in a big way in 2023, with many declaring him an almost ready major league starter. He was ranked #2 or #3 on most prospect lists, which seemed a bit aggressive to me given his limited track record.

Hampton suffered a shoulder injury after being sent down to Spring Training. He just made his first rehab start. 2024 won’t quite be a lost season, but he will only have about a month left to play once he gets back into form. Maybe he’s trade bait, but teams don’t like to trade for players coming off an injury.

Bummer.

Grade: Incomplete

Ranked Number 7 - Will Warren, SP

Warren was supposed to be the major league starter to fill in for Clark Schmidt, but Luis Gil had something else to say about that. Even beyond losing his spot on the depth chart, 2024 has been a nightmare for Warren. His ERA is 6.70 in 87 Triple-A innings. He’s allowing a ton of home runs. Lefties are hitting .315/.408/.566 off him. Given that Warren was so good at Triple-A last year, you have to wonder what is wrong.

You can read some optimism in the tea leaves. Thanks to an increased strikeout rate, Warren’s 4.09 FIP is actually better than last year. He’s been better than league average since May, although far from dominant.

I wonder if he’s going to end up as a short middle relief pitcher who gets sheltered from left-handed pitching. Not a good outcome for a guy who looked like a major league #4 in Spring Training.

Grade: F

Ranked Number 9 - Henry LaLane, SP

Every year, some toolsy young Latin American player comes out of nowhere to earn a place on every top-10 prospect list. LaLane was that guy in 2023. He’s a 20 year-old, 6’7” lefty who dominated complex league batters during his brief North American debut last year. Scouting reports raved about his stuff, command and makeup.

As is typical with a young international pitcher, LaLane did not pitch in official games in the first half. He just made his 2024 league debut this week in the Florida Complex League.

Grade: Incomplete

Ranked Number 10 - Brock Selvidge, SP

Selvidge is the type of pitching prospect who flies under the radar: medium ceiling, medium risk. He’s got good starter stuff: MLB.com had him at 55 fastball, 55 slider, 60 cutter, 55 control before the season. He’s 6’3” and 21 years old. While that profile gives off real “4th round pick college starter from a mid/high D1 program) vibes, Selvidge was actually a high school pick back in 2021. He had a strong full season debut in 2023, pitching 127 innings with a 3.45 ERA with good control and strikeout rates.

Now at Double-A, he’s been fine, but a little worse. His ERA is 4.25 after two rough July starts, 3.75 before. Importantly, his great control is gone, with more than 4 walks per 9. Along with Spencer Jones, he represented the Yankees at the Future’s Game this year.

Selvidge is young for Double-A. He has only 38 plate appearances against younger batters. Mid-rotation starter is still on the table for him, but probably not for at least another year.

Grade: B-

Ranked Number 11 - Kyle Carr, SP

He’s getting rocked: 6.53 ERA in 62 High-A innings. #11 always seemed way too aggressive for Carr, who lost most of his early adult years to Tommy John.

Grade: F

Ranked Number 13 - Clayton Beeter, SP

More injuries. Beeter was on the Opening Day roster and pitched one inning in his big league debut. He got demoted, then went down with some kind of shoulder injury. Now he might have to undergo Tommy John surgery. I feel bad for the guy. At least he’ll get a major league paycheck while recovering next year. We might see him in 2026.

Grade: F

Ranked Number 16 - Carlos Lagrange, SP

Another 6’7” guy! Although he’s a year older, Lagrange is pretty much on the same track as LaLane. He made his debut in the complex league this week. We’ll see.

Grade: Incomplete

Ranked Number 17 - Yoendrys Gomez, SP

Gomez has been speculated as a relief candidate forever now, but he’s still starting. It’s going okay at Triple-A: 4.20 ERA in 55 innings while riding the shuttle back and forth to the majors. The Yankees probably want to preserve some depth in case they need to fill innings at the major leagues, but at some point you need to try his stuff out in the bullpen and see if his fastball plays up a bit. He’s not going to get far with terrible control in the majors. He’s still just 24.

Grade: C

Ranked Number 21 - Zach Messinger, SP

Another 4th starter candidate. The 6’6” UVA starter has a solid 4-pitch mix. The Yankees did their thing and added a few ticks to his low-90s fastball, maxing out at 99. MLB.com knocked his control in their scouting report, but he’s been solid at Double-A with a 3.94 ERA and 2.9 BB/9 in 96 innings. He might earn a Triple-A promotion soon.

Prospects like Messinger are always underrated. He could have a long major league career similar to pre-Cardinals Jordan Montgomery. Or he could do a Will Warren and flame out against advanced hitters. So far, so good. We could even see him for a spot start or two this year.

Grade: B

Ranked Number 22 - Trystan Vrieling, SP

5.56 ERA at Double-A. Not good.

Vrieling is an odd one. He didn’t exactly dominate college baseball, but the Yankees sent him straight to Double-A after missing all of 2023 with an injury. The results have been mixed. His ERA is high at 5.56, but his FIP is solid at 3.81. He might be getting a little unlucky. He had a few ugly starts, allowing nine earned runs twice and seven once, but has been pretty good otherwise.

I haven’t seen any recent scouting reports on Vrieling. When he was drafted, he had great breaking stuff but a below average fastball. I wonder if the Yankees went to work on his velocity a bit.

Grade: B-

Ranked Number 23 - Cade Smith, SP

See Vrieling, but the Yankees sent him to Low-A instead of Double-A. He hasn’t been great at a level that he should be dominating as a big program college player. He’s holding his own, but has no control.

Grade: C-

Ranked Number 24 - Jack Neely, RP

We don’t give relief-first prospects enough respect. Sometimes, they turn into Mark Melancon or David Robertson. Neely is definitely on that level as a prospect, dominating both Double and Triple-A. His big strikeout stuff is badly needed on the major league team. His control has been slightly below average, but nothing out of line for a future MLB relief pitcher. I bet he’s called up before the end of the month. If you told me he was going to close games in the post season, I wouldn’t say you were crazy.

Grade: A

Ranked Number 27 - Danny Watson

He started the year off injured. Now he has an 8.86 ERA at Double-A. Woof.

Grade: F

Ranked Number 30 - Justin Lange

Remember the Luke Voit trade? Me neither! Somehow the Yankees got a former first round pick for Voit from San Diego. He’s been out all year with a shoulder injury.

Grade: Incomplete

Bottom Line

It’s bad out there. While a few unranked players have had breakout seasons (post coming later this week, Luis Gil was unranked!), it’s almost all bad news for Yankees pitching prospects in 2024. Lots of injuries. Lots of failures to develop. A few big steps back. The only unqualified success story so far is a relief pitcher. The Yankees are lucky that they have a full major league rotation, because there’s not a lot of help coming up any time soon.