My Plan for the Offseason With Juan Soto

by EJ Fagan

November 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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On a recent episode of Talkin’ Yanks, Jomboy and Jake called on listeners to submit their plans for the Yankee offseason. The rules are pretty simple: pay Soto $46 million, stay under $300 million, no more than 2 or 3 trades, and sign everyone to reasonable contracts.

I have answered their call. My spreadsheet is here. Let’s talk about it.

I’ll go into more detail below, but here are all of my moves:

• Trade for Yandy Diaz

• Trade for Alec Bohm

• Trade away some of Marcus Stroman’s contract

• Sign Blake Snell

• Sign Jeff Hoffman

• Sign Michael A. Taylor

• Sign Tim Hill

• Non-tender or trade Tim Mayza, Trent Grisham, Scott Effross

  
  

Trade for Yandy Diaz

I originally wanted Christian Walker as my first baseman. Walker is probably a better player than Diaz, but his $18 million-ish salary makes it hard to fill out the roster. He also probably isn’t an ideal leadoff hitter, as a low OBP high power guy.

Diaz, on the other hand, posted OBPs north of .400 in 2022 and 2023. Even in a down year, he was pretty good in 2024:

Diaz is a bit of a discount Juan Soto. He doesn’t swing at much outside of the strike zone, great bat control and contact. He’s also much better against left-handed pitching, which fills a huge need for the Yankees.

I wrote down Ben Rice et al. as the cost for Diaz. I think the Rays will be eager to shed his $10 million salary off a down year and replace him with a potentially talented league minimum 1st baseman. Diaz won’t be free, but he won’t cost an arm and a leg.

My alternative here is to sign Carlos Santana for a similar salary. I’m not sure if he would lead off, but he does a lot of what Diaz does and only costs money.

Trade for Alec Bohm

This was a bit of a surprise rumor. The Phillies want to trade third baseman Alec Bohm.

What’s going on here? Bohm is under team control for the next two seasons, with an estimated $8.1 million salary in 2025. He is a former 3rd overall draft pick who was a disappointment until 2024, when he hit .280/.332/.448 and improved his defense. There are no red flags on his Statcast page either. Bohm was a strong contact hitter with good bat control:

I think the Phillies are selling high on Bohm. He’s starting to cost some money and they think they can improve the team elsewhere by trading him. The Yankees are going to have to give up major league value to get him, and I think Nestor Cortes fits the bill. He would be a pretty big upgrade over Walker in their rotation and has a similar projected salary. The only difference is that Cortes has only one year of team control, so the Yankees might need to sweeten the pot a little bit with someone like Oswald Peraza.

Trade Away Marcus Stroman

The only real way to make my plan work is to get rid of most of Stroman’s $18.5 million salary. He’s still a major league starter, but the Yankees can do better. If they do nothing to the rotation, he’s probably a long reliever to start the year.

I have the Athletics down as a dump target, but take your pick. Oakland has so little money on the payroll right now that they need to add salary just to make revenue sharing. But, they will have trouble convincing free agents to sign up to play in a minor league ballpark in the hot Sacramento summer. I have the Yankees taking on $6.5 million of Stroman’s salary to make the deal work, so maybe they can get a player or two in return.

Sign Blake Snell

All of these choices lead up to the big one: the Yankees sign Blake Snell to a $125 million, 5-year contract. I really have no idea how much money Snell will command on the free agent market but I don’t think he’ll be super-duper expensive. He’s basically in the same boat as last year, but one year older and coming off a weird season. I don’t think that teams are going to commit $150+ million to a 32 year-old.

The Yankees don’t desperately need another starting pitcher, but could sure use some stability in the rotation. I think Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil are pretty good, but they both carry some significant risk. Schmidt and Rodon are fine back of the rotation starters, but I’m not convinced that either should be starting playoff games. Snell solves a lot of problems for them.

Sign Jeff Hoffman

I generally have faith in Matt Blake and the Yankees front office to figure out a bullpen, but within limits. It took them a long time to assemble a solid bullpen in 2024, and they had stalwarts in Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle. The Yankees need a rock to build their island of misfit toys on, and Jeff Hoffman is that guy.

Hoffman is a late bloomer by virtue of starting his career as a Rockies starter. He’s been rock solid since converting to the bullpen though. Check out this beautiful 2024 Statcast page:

You want swing and miss? Hoffman has it in spades. His fastball/slider/split combination is special.

I paid him pretty well: 3 years, $27 million. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get more, especially if teams want to Seth Lugo him back to starting. If he’s too expensive, I could imagine the Yankees going for another higher priced reliever like Carlos Estevez, but Hoffman is my guy.

Sign Tim Hill

He’s back! Tim Hill was pretty impressive as a Yankee in 2024. I think he’s miscast as a high leverage relief pitcher, but he’s solid in the middle of the bullpen. I gave him a two year deal worth $3.5 million total.

Sign Michael A. Taylor

The Yankees need a backup outfielder. Taylor is pretty much a glove-only player at this point, but the glove and speed are good. I could imagine a lot of players filling this niche. Jazz Chisholm could always do some outfielding as well.

Bottom Line

I like where my team has ended up. Diaz and Bohm make the team more right-handed and contact oriented, and are good for something like 3-5 wins over what the Yankees got in 2024. With Bohm at 3rd and Chisholm at his natural 2nd base, the Yankees will significantly improve their infield defense. The rotation improves significantly, while the bullpen at least replaces some production from Holmes and Kahnle.

I don’t think that anything here is unrealistic. Maybe the Rays don’t want to trade Diaz in the division, or don’t like Rice. I think the Yankees can handle at least the latter. Maybe the Phillies want more for Bohm. Maybe Snell costs a little more, requiring the Yankees to seek a cheaper bullpen option. I think that the bigger picture here is that the Yankees can probably sneak in an expensive starting pitcher if they can save a little money at 1st base and trade Cortes. It’s tight, but doable.