by EJ Fagan
May 9, 2024
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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The biggest offseason question after the Yankees Juan Soto was, “Do the Yankees need more starting pitching?” After the Yankees signed Stroman instead Yamamoto, a lot Yankees fans thought they answer was a hard “Yes.” The Yankees had a lot of uncertainty in their rotation from Cortes and Rodon, both coming off disastrous injured seasons. If they were bad, the Yankees rotation would be bad.
There was good reason to believe that Nestor Cortes was risky. He had a bit of a miraculous breakout in 2021-2022, ascending from the DFA dustbin all the way to 8th in 2022 Cy Young Voting. That’s pretty darn suspicious for a 29 year-old guy with a below average fastball and no previous record of real success.
Well, we have some good news. I think we can officially declare that Nestor Cortes is back!
At first glance, the numbers are mixed. Cortes owns a 3.72 ERA. He’s 3rd in the AL in innings pitched, having gone 6+ in four of five starts. That ERA/innings combo is more Marcus Stroman than Nasty Nestor, but the underlying numbers tell a different story:
Cortes is 6th in the American League in xERA. His Statcast page looks remarkably similar to his 2022 page:
His fastball velocity and extension are still near the bottom of the league. He’s still one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball. Yet, he still is one of the best in baseball at preventing batters from barreling the ball. His control has arguably improved, while strikeouts have gone down a hair.
2022 Nestor Cortes is back! It wasn’t an illusion. What does this mean?
First off, it means that the Yankees have a clear #2 pitcher behind Gerrit Cole. Cortes in 2022 was 8th in Cy Young voting, ahead of Cole, and arguably could be the #1 start for most playoff teams. Cole is still probably a better bet in 2024 if he comes back healthy, but it’s not a crazy idea to predict that Cortes is starting the first game of the playoffs.
Second, it means that the Yankees have some of the league’s best starting pitching overall. Rodon’s starts have been encouraging, but his numbers are much more mixed. There’s a world where Rodon ends up getting most of his abilities back, but ends up more in the territory of the mid-to-high 3.00s. With Nasty Nestor back, that’s fine. Marcus Stroman will can hopefully come in somewhere in the high 3.00s. Clark Schmidt can be a #5 starter. Luis Gil can be the major wild card.
Finally, it means that the Yankees might want to consider extending Cortes. He’s set to head to free agency after the 2025 season. I think a long-term deal makes a lot of sense for both sides. Cortes seems like the type of player who will age well.
At the same time, he’ll be a 31 year-old free agent with a 91 mph fastball. Given how the market went for Jordan Montgomery and how Cortes hasn’t made a lot of money at this point in his career, Cortes might be willing to take a slightly smaller deal in return for some safety. Let’s call it 7 years, $110 million.
Above all else, I’m happy that I get to watch Nestor Cortes pitch well again. There aren’t a lot of crafty pitchers left in the game, and rooting for an underdog player is a lot of fun. Let’s go Nestor.
