Paul Goldschmidt's Hall of Fame Argument

by Lincoln Mitchell

May 2026

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NOTE - This article comes from Lincoln Mitchell's Substack page, Kibitzing with Lincoln . Please click HERE to follow Lincoln on Substack.

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A few days ago Paul Goldschmidt hit a leadoff homerun to set the Yankees on their way to a 6-2 victory over the Orioles. I still find it strange that a hitter of Goldschmidt’s profile is batting leadoff, but once I got over that I began wondering about Goldschmidt’s Hall of Fame chances. 

Before even looking at his Baseball Reference page, I ran through what I knew about Goldschmidt. He had been a great hitter for many years primarily with the Diamondbacks and later the Cardinals, before coming over to the Yankees as an older part-time player. I also remembered Goldschmidt as a frequent All-Star who had even won one MVP award and, much to my frustration, seemed to be able to hit Tim Lincecum almost at will.

I then checked some of the numbers and my memories about Goldschmidt and Lincecum were right. In 34 plate appearances against Lincecum, Goldschmidt had drawn four walks, hit six singles, two doubles and an astounding seven home runs for a .536/.559/1.357 slash line. I had forgotten that Goldschmidt also hit well against other Giants stalwarts of that era. He had a 1.034 OPS against Madison Bumgarner and .874 OPS against Matt Cain.

Goldschmidt’s statistics do not immediately scream Hall of Famer. He will likely retire a few homeruns short of 400 for his career, and a batting average in the .285-.290 range, but he also has some other accomplishments that bolster those credentials. The six All-Star appearances and one MVP award are impressive borderline Hall of Fame credentials.

Goldschmidt also won four Gold Gloves, suggesting he was a pretty good defender for most of his career as well.

Other corners of Goldschmidt’s Baseball Reference page show a more complex picture of his Hall of Fame case. Among the ten batters most similar to Goldschmidt through age 37 are Luis Gonzalez, Paul Konerko and Lance Berkman. All were very good players; none were Hall of Famers. However, others on that list, including Fred McGriff, David Ortiz and Todd Helton, are Hall of Famers who were primarily first baseman or, in the case of Ortiz, a designated hitter. Ortiz was more famous, but when you adjust for his era, ballpark and possibility of what we might call an unconventional workout routine, he, along with the others, are not clearly better than Goldschmidt was.

As shown in the table above, Goldschmidt’s OPS+ and WAR, both good heuristics for evaluating ballplayers in the bigger picture, are clearly better than those of Helton and McGriff. Those two Hall of Famers were borderline selections who, despite some gaudy career homerun totals for McGriff, and Coors Field inflated offensive numbers for Helton, were not as good as Goldschmidt. Ortiz’s higher OPS+ reflects the reality that he was a better hitter, but hit career WAR is less than Goldschmidt’s because Ortiz had no defensive value throughout his career.

The last line in the table belongs to a Hall of Fame first baseman who was a better hitter than the others, but like Ortiz provided very little offensive value. Unlike the others in that table, this player was a first ballot Hall of Famer who played mostly in a low offense era, primarily in a terrible hitter’s park and was, unusually for a Hall of Famer, platooned for most of his career. If you haven’t guessed yet, this player is Willie McCovey who spent most of his career with the San Francisco Giants and was probably my favorite player ever.

At first glance, it may seem tough to believe the Goldschmidt was as good or even better than McCovey. After all, McCovey hit 521 home runs was one of the most feared left-handed .sluggers of his, or any, era and teamed with Willie Mays to form one of the greatest power hitting duos in baseball history. The gap in OPS+ reflects that McCovey played most of his career in a very low offense context.

McCovey was the better hitter, but Goldschmidt was better at the other aspects of the game. The latter’s 174 stolen bases in 210 attempts were much better than the former’s 26 in 48 attempts. Similarly, most advanced metrics suggest Goldschmidt was the stronger defender. That is reflected in McCovey, despite the being nicknamed Stretch, never winning a Gold Glove, while Goldschmidt had four. The Silver Slugger award did not exist when McCovey was playing, but if it had, he probably would have won about as many as Goldschmidt’s five.

The two sluggers are more comparable than suggested at first glance in part because of their playing time. Goldschmidt had an eleven year peak from 2012-2022 when he was a full time player and elite hitter. McCovey had fewer years when he played full time and hit at an elite level, but may have had a higher three-year peak from 1968-1970 than any stretch, pardon the pun, enjoyed by Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt is unlikely to be immediately viewed as a Hall of Famer when he retires, but a closer look at the numbers tells a different story. The one thing that would seal the deal for him would be a late career World Series victory, and this season may be his last chance for that.