Perspectives: 2026 Not Looking Good...
- Paul Semendinger
- Nov 22, 2025
- 3 min read
by Paul Semendinger
November 22, 2025
***
I just don't see it.
I don't see the optimism.
I wish I did.
I don't.
I hope I'm wrong.
***
The 2026 Yankees do not look impressive to me. The team's best hopes are that players who did way above what was expected in 2025 do the same, which isn't likely. If they don't... it could be a long year.
I simply don't think the Yankees have the philosophy, the energy, or the willingness to do what is necessary to build a championship team right now.
I think heading into 2026, so far, at least, the philosophy is worse, the energy less, and the willingness to build a champion is diminished even more. To make the Yankees great, it will cost a lot of money, which I do not believe Hal Steinbrenner will be willing to pay.
Why do I feel this way?
Let me count the ways...
***
Austin Wells is supposed to be an offensive force. His lifetime OPS+ is 99. Simply, he's not.
Jazz Chisholm had a 30/30 season, but it was his career year, by far when measured by WAR. He could do it again, but often after a career year, a player reverts to his previous norms.
Anthony Volpe has never proven over any sustained period that he can hit Major league pitching. His lifetime OPS+ is 84 and he'll now have to bounce back after an injury.
Ryan McMahon is a fine defender, but he also can't hit. His lifetime OPS+ is 91.
Cody Bellinger is a player I wanted the Yankees to get, but I really do not want them to give him a long term deal. He should be fine in 2025, and if the team around him was great, that would be acceptable But he'll be expected, if he returns, to be a guy who helps carry the team. He's not that player.
Trent Grisham is coming off a career year, by far. I didn't think he'd be good last year. I was wrong. I am not, at all, confident that he can come close to repeating 2025. Instead the Yankees probably have a 17-20 homer guy who bats .210 or lower.
Giancarlo Stanton is a shell of who he used to be. He also bounced back when he actually played in 2025, but he's 36 years-old and he already can't stay healthy. He's also going to be one of the bats that is supposed to carry the offense. He isn't that guy.
Jasson Dominguez is a work in progress. He hasn't proven that he is ready to be an every day big leaguers on either side of the ball.
Spencer Jones has a frighting strikeout profile as a minor leaguer.
Gerrit Cole is coming off an injury. One never know how well a pitcher, especially an aging one, can come back.
Carlos Rodon is coming off an injury. One never know how well a pitcher, especially an aging one, can come back.
Clarke Schmidt is coming off an injury. One never know how well a pitcher, especially an aging one (and Schmidt isn't exactly young) can come back.
Will Warren and Luis Gil are simply serviceable.
Aaron Boone is not a great manager.
Brian Cashman may have once been great, but the game has passed him by.
Hal Steinbrenner is reluctant to spend as necessary to bring in the greatest talent.
***
I do believe Ben Rice, Max Fried and Aaron Judge will be excellent to great.
I have high hopes for Cam Schlittler and David Bednar.
The rest of the roster are nice enough players. But, that's what they are, nice enough players. This is not a championship roster. Even if Bellinger comes back, this is not a championship roster.
In short, there are a ton of holes on this team... I don't think they're going to be addressed, I don't think the overall philosophy is a winning one, and I don't think the manager is adept enough to make the team play a good enough brand of baseball to compete.
There's a long winter when things can change. I don't think the team will change significantly enough to fix these problems.
I fear a long winter is ahead followed by a longer and non-inspiring summer which will be followed by another empty autumn.
The Yankees seem content "as is." This team, "as is" simply isn't good enough.
I wish I felt differently.
I'll run this article again in early February to see if much has changed. I hope in February I write that I was so so wrong because the Yankees had a huge off-season.
(I fear I won't be writing that.)
a song with great energy
Great article. I agree with everything, except that Cashman was once great. He never was. The 2009 champs were from the previous regime. 2026 is going to be a very long and frustrating season for Yankee fans. They’ll run it back with largely the same roster possibly minus Bellinger. Even with Bellinger, this is nowhere near a championship caliber team. Jays will be the class of the East for a long time and unfortunately the sux will be better. I can certainly see this team finishing no better than third place and missing the playoffs. Hal won’t care since there will be 45,000+ at the stadium every game, Cashman and Boone will get extended and the miserable beat …
I agree with a lot of what you said. I have more belief in guys like Wells, Warren, Gil, Volpe, & Dominguez.. but their problems to me stem more for the coaching philosophy and methods that Brian Cashman insists on. I honestly do think if a lot more baseball centric is brought back into the coaching, these guys in particular, and the team as a whole will be much better. I honestly think it's that simple. But as the late NY Football Giants HC Jim Fassel told me in 1997, and I'm paraphrasing here, ' While your questions/comments/observations are more basic and on the surface, seem child-like, we are sometimes so stick in the weeds that it takes comments from…
I am sure if you and I played on the same softball team (or had some other reason to hang out regularly) you would have the nickname Sunshine Semendinger. to be clear, nearly everyone on the team had a nickname. ya know, when the guy is in the batters box it just does not seem right to say come on Paul we need a little base rip here. NO you gotta have something a bit more fun. that said I really do think you are more positive than you often sound in your writing here. but boy you really know how to start off a saturday with a dark cloud
i would not say that I completely disagree with you.…
Since Turkey day is still in front of us, I'm being patient. Having said that, i don't trust this management team one bit.