by Paul Semendinger
January 11, 2024
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If the Yankees don't go all-in to improve the starting rotation, they are very very very foolish. One might even call that decision cowardly. If they leave this team as it is, or only acquire marginal talent, they'll have marginal results. Failing to acquire the necessary talent will show, clearly, once and for all, that the Yankees are not as committed to winning as they always say they are.
The 2024 season, in a big way, is the Rubicon moment for Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman. Prior to this year, for a great many years, they have toyed with making the big decisions that will set this franchise in the direction to win championships. They have waded into the river, but they never crossed it. They've come close a few times, but never committed fully. They have always retreated to the safer banks on the other side.
If they don't cross the river this year, the Yankees probably won't get a chance again for a long time. The Yankees will either be the team that goes for it, or not. After this year, it is very likely that the team's current championship window will close. Many an army has lost a battle or a war because they were unable or unwilling to move forward. It takes tremendous courage to cross the Rubicon. In many ways the easier path is to stay on the opposite shore and to hope for good to come. (The Yankees can hope that all the returning players who were injured or ineffective last year suddenly regain their health and productivity.)
It's also easier to stay on the opposite side of the river and make excuses:
"We offered an extra opt-out."
"If you look at our deal, in one way (though not in actual dollars) it was better."
"We wanted to trade for that player, but the other team asked too much..."
In short, winners get the job done, losers make excuses.
If they cross the river, they might win a championship, or many, in the upcoming years. There, of course, is no guarantee of that success, but boldness has power. That power creates energy and excitement and fun. Cowardice creates the opposite emotions.
If the Yankees do not acquire the pitching they need, they can be assured that they will not win in 2024. If the Yankees fail to commit for 2024, they will guarantee that the team will suffer many more years of mediocrity and possibly (probably) failure.
Another few years like the ones previous will assuredly tarnish the Yankees brand for a very long time. Another few years without a championship will also tarnish and completely destroy the legacies of Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman. In short, plainly and clearly, they will never be seen as winners - rather they will be known as the men who helped destroy the Yankees' winning history.
If the Yankees don't contend in 2024, because they did not properly address the team's biggest needs, I can see Juan Soto leaving for greener pastures. Why wouldn't he? I think it's also all but certain that Gerrit Cole will opt-out. As we know, the Yankees can override Cole's opt out by giving him one more year, but if they're not going to be truly serious about putting a winning team on the field, why would they invest in an extra season of Gerrit Cole - and the seasons leading up to that point? It would make no sense.
Imagine the 2025 Yankees without Gerrit Cole, Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres (a free agent after this year), and Anthony Rizzo (who also has an option after this season). The Yankees of next year could look very different - and not better in any way. Without those players, they'll be a much worse team. That is why this year is so critically important. The future is now.
I'm not convinced, based on weeks of inactivity, and after they lost out on Yamamoto (because they were not willing to make the biggest offer - no matter how anyone wants to spin that), that the Yankees' brain trust truly understands this. If the Yankees don't win in 2024, it's likely that they won't win for a long time to come.
This is the Rubicon year, once and for all. The Yankees will either stand strong and cross the river or they'll cower on the other side. History isn't kind to cowards. History won't be kind to the Yankees if they fail to acquire the necessary talent for this coming season.
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When the Yankees are active, the off-season is fun. I love when the Yankees trade for and sign big name players. When that happens, the Yankees create excitement.
The Yankees have succeeded this off-season, over the last many weeks (it's been well over a month since they traded for Juan Soto) in taking all the excitement that trade created and dampening it.
This is also something that I don't think the decision-makers understand. At all. They have a bad approach and they continually take a step, or more, backwards, after they move slowly forward. The progression is continually in the wrong direction.
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The Rubicon is flowing in front of the Yankees.
Will they cross the river in hopes of success or will they pitch their tents, again, on the far side and watch as others claim the glory that could have been theirs? We will find out soon.
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