Pythagorean Wins and the Yankees

August 16, 2026

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From mlb.com:

"Pythagorean winning percentage is a formula developed by renowned statistician Bill James. The concept strives to determine the number of games that a team should have won -- based its total number of runs scored versus its number of runs allowed."

Here are some statistics on the Yankees the last five seasons:

2026:

Pythagorean Wins: 71 (This means the Yankees should have 71 wins based on the Pythagorean formula)

Actual Wins: 68

2025:

Pythagorean Wins: 97

Actual Wins: 94

2024:

Pythagorean Wins: 96

Actual Wins: 94

2023:

Pythagorean Wins: 78

Actual Wins: 82

2022:

Pythagorean Wins: 106

Actual Wins: 99

In short, the Yankees have won fewer games than the Pythagorean Wins Formula indicates they should have in four of the last five seasons.

In other words, even when they have won a lot of games, the Yankees have underperformed.

This formula bases projected wins on how many runs a team scores and how many it allows which means player injuries play no factor in the formula. The formula is based only on the results on the field of play. Because of this, one cannot blame a poor results on players missing time due to injuries.

This formula also judges a team based upon the players on the field and how they performed which means that, for this discussion at least, Brian Cashman's roster building also isn't a factor.

It seems clear, by this statistical method at least, that Aaron Boone's approach leads to the Yankees performing worse than expected.

Here is this week's Readers' Thread:

If the Yankees continue to underperform in 2026, should Aaron Boone return as the manager for 2027?

On a side note, here are two recent examples of the culture of the New York Yankees under Aaron Boone. I contend that these examples (and the plethora of others we have shared here since 2018) create an atmosphere that is the antithesis of a winning culture.

First, Jazz Chisholm not knowing how many outs there were in the inning:

Second, new Yankee Heliot Ramos not hustling...