Quick Hit: Sunday Sadness

SSTN Admin
Apr 6
1 min read

Opening day for my baseball league got cancelled this morning, and the Yankees lost 5-4 in extras to the Pirates...

9 Comments

Robert Malchman

Apr 07

Vlad Guerrero signed with the Jays, 14 years, $500 million. The last few years of that contract are going to look mighty ugly.

Robert Malchman

Apr 07

Replying to

Vladito has averaged 4.2 WAR per 162 games over his career, and from 2021-24, 4.6 WAR/year. That's worth about $33.6 million/year. His contract is worth $35.7 million AAV (worth about 4.46 WAR). Right now, he's on pace for 4.86 WAR this season. So it's not clear that the Jays are overpaying right now. When it becomes an overpay will depend, of course, on when he begins a permanent decline (likely after age 32, so six years from now), how fast the decline is, and what the value of 1 WAR will be in the 2030s.

So the contract isn't ugly now (IMHO), but I'd bet it will be sometime in the mid-2030s. So that sizzle you hear is steak, no…

Paul Semendinger

Apr 07

And I was going to be the Opening Day starter...

Hopefully next week!

fuster

Apr 07

Replying to

will it be your 30th consecutive Opening Day start?

Satchel Semendinger sounds so reassuring

fuster

Apr 06

a league of your own?

Robert Malchman

Apr 07

Replying to

As I'm fond of pointing out, in 2024, the Yankees were 15-5 when scoring exactly 5 runs. With exactly 4 runs, it fell to 12-11. So even with just 4 runs, it's a 50-50 proposition (which, if you think about it, is exactly where the Yankees were after 9 innings yesterday).

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