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E.J. Fagan

Rankings AL East Starting Pitching

by EJ Fagan

January 30, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.


Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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Last week, I ranked the American League East at every hitting position. The Yankees stacked up pretty well, winning three positions and capturing the best overall position. What about starting pitching?


Let’s rank every single AL starter, in tiers.


The Ace Tier

  1. Gerrit Cole, NYY

  2. Kevin Gausman, TOR

There is a clear top 2 in the division. You know Gerrit Cole won the Cy Young Award. Gausman keeps pace, leading all MLB starters in FIP since 2021. He and Cole have almost identical ERAs over the time. Cole has 40 more innings pitched, but Gausman is still an absolute ace. His 5-year, $110 million contract is a steal.


The Reliability Tier

  1. Chris Bassitt, TOR

  2. Jose Berrios, TOR

  3. Marcus Stroman, NYY

  4. Zack Eflin, TBR

Did you know that Chris Bassitt was 10th in Cy Young Voting in 2023? I had no idea. He pitched 200 innings! Even if Statcast thinks his 3.60 ERA was a bit lucky, that’s darn impressive. Berrios rebounded after a down 2022, while Stroman had his worst year ever due to injuries but still posted an ERA under 4.00. This group isn’t going to compete with the top tier for awards, but are as guaranteed as it gets in baseball to be solid, mid-3.00s pitchers.


The Upside Tier

  1. Kyle Bradish, BAL

  2. Grayson Rodriguez, BAL

  3. Ryan Pepiot, TBR

I think a lot of people would rank Bradish much higher, possibly in the Ace Tier. He posted a 2.83 ERA in 168 innings last year, good for 4th in Cy Young voting. I will respond by pointing out his nonexistent track record of excellent before 2023 and 3.77 xERA. That’s still pretty solid! But I’d bet on Bradish posting an ERA near the Reliability Tier next year, with more downside risk. Combine that with relatively short outings, and I think Bradish is a lot riskier than people think. He could repeat as an ace, or he could sink back down closer to a 4.00 ERA. In fact, I’m tempted to rank Grayson Rodriguez ahead of him as the more talented pitcher who has serious ace-level talent and posted a big second half.


The Rebound Tier

  1. Nestor Cortes, NYY

  2. Carlos Rodon, NYY

  3. Lucas Giolito, BOS

  4. John Means

The top three of these guys could be aces next year. Cortes and Rodon both posted ERAs in the 2.00s from 2021-2022. You have to go back to 2021 to find Giolito’s ace year, but he certainly has the talent to do it again. Someone in this tier is getting Cy Young votes. Someone else is going to pitch 20 innings with an ERA over 6.00.

Means is stuck at the end of the tier a little awkwardly. He was excellent after returning from Tommy John, but his upside to me is more in the Reliability Tier than the Ace Tier. He also has to hold up for a full season post-surgery.


The Mid Tier

  1. Zack Littell, TBR

  2. Dean Kremer, BAL

  3. Tyler Wells, BAL

  4. Yusei Kikuchi, TOR

  5. Nick Pivetta, BOS

  6. Aaron Civale, TBR

  7. Taj Bradley, TBR

  8. Brayan Bello, BOS

  9. Kutter Crawford, BOS

  10. Clark Schmidt, NYY

Hey look, Boston enters the list! This tier is a hodgepodge of young or inconsistent players. All project to post an ERA in the low-to-mid-4.00s on Fangraphs. Any tier list should be fat near the average and this one is no exception.

Schmidt is clearly on the bottom of this tier. He had the worst season of all the healthy players on this list. He’s sneaky old at 28. That said, I think Yankee fans underrate Schmidt’s strength as a #5 starter. The Yankees have four starters above the Mid Tier. Tampa and Baltimore have #5 starters above Schmidt, but Taj Bradley and Tyler Wells aren’t exactly future aces. The Yankees are fine with Schmidt in the Opening Day rotation.


The May Not Be a MLB Starter Tier

  1. Tanner Hauck, BOS

  2. Alek Manoah, TOR

Houck’s conversion from relief to starting pitching ended with a 5.00 ERA. Manoah’s 2023 season ended with him not reporting to Triple-A. Manoah obviously has huge upside, but I’m not sure he is even going to start in the majors.

Bottom Line



The Yankees stack up well against the AL East. Only Toronto, one of top two or three teams in starting pitching in all of MLB, is clearly ahead of them in starting pitching. However, their rotation is a lot different than Baltimore and Tampa. Both of those teams are going to rely on a bunch of solid but unspectacular Mid Tier starters, while the Yankees are relying on Rebound Tier starters. That’s another way of saying that the Yankees have a much wider range of possibilities than Baltimore and Tampa. Rodon and Cortes could come back as aces, but also both flop. If the former, then the Yankees will have a better rotation than even the Blue Jays. If the latter, then they’ll have to hope that Will Warren and Cody Poteet are MLB starters.



18 Yorum


Jonathan Silverberg
Jonathan Silverberg
31 Oca

Bassitt won 16 games, the final one a shutout over the Yanks on the final weekend. Gausman and Bassitt are a great 1-2 punch.

Beğen

Jonathan Silverberg
Jonathan Silverberg
30 Oca

On Yankees Hot Stove just now, Jack Curry seconds my vote: Luke Weaver is the 6th starter going into the spring.

Beğen

Jeff Korell
Jeff Korell
30 Oca

Alek Manoah is the type of pitcher who, if he were to traded to the Dodgers, he would be an instant ace. Same thing if he were to go to Arizona, where Brent Strom is the pitching coach. When Strom was the pitching coach with the Astros, when the team acquired a declining Justin Verlander, he made him great again, when the Astros acquired a very good Gerrit Cole, he made him great, and when the Astros acquired a mediocre Charlie Morton, he made him very good. So take Menoah out of his situation and put him into a situation where pitching coaches have been successful turning pitchers careers around, and he will be great again. He could also ben…

Beğen

Robert Malchman
Robert Malchman
30 Oca

I'm much higher on Schmidt than E.J. is. His 2023 numbers are colored by a really poor start to the season: 6.84 ERA, 5.42 FIP in April. From May 1 to the end of the season, 4.23 ERA and 4.23 FIP (how often do you see that?). League average was 4.33. I'd rather have Michael King, but a league-average No. 5 is nothing to sneeze at. He's definitely ahead of Civale and Bradley for Tampa Bay.

Düzenlendi
Beğen

Alan B.
Alan B.
30 Oca

I think Manoah needs to go elsewhere and then he can be a rebound candidate. Unfortunately for Toronto, they will be selling low on him. But better to sell low then DFA.


Berrios has been veey inconsistent since landing in Toronto.


Schmidt, Wells, & Brandish I think all have another level to them.


Means, Rondon, & Cortes all are comeback guys. Getting Means back, is so big for Baltimore.


Note to new Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey: Good luck. He has the whole schmorguzeboard of guys to deal with, then he'll get rookies too.


I think the Rays guys are rated higher than they really are. I think their pen will make those guys look better than they really…

Beğen
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