by EJ Fagan
January 30, 2024
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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Last week, I ranked the American League East at every hitting position. The Yankees stacked up pretty well, winning three positions and capturing the best overall position. What about starting pitching?
Let’s rank every single AL starter, in tiers.
The Ace Tier
Gerrit Cole, NYY
Kevin Gausman, TOR
There is a clear top 2 in the division. You know Gerrit Cole won the Cy Young Award. Gausman keeps pace, leading all MLB starters in FIP since 2021. He and Cole have almost identical ERAs over the time. Cole has 40 more innings pitched, but Gausman is still an absolute ace. His 5-year, $110 million contract is a steal.
The Reliability Tier
Chris Bassitt, TOR
Jose Berrios, TOR
Marcus Stroman, NYY
Zack Eflin, TBR
Did you know that Chris Bassitt was 10th in Cy Young Voting in 2023? I had no idea. He pitched 200 innings! Even if Statcast thinks his 3.60 ERA was a bit lucky, that’s darn impressive. Berrios rebounded after a down 2022, while Stroman had his worst year ever due to injuries but still posted an ERA under 4.00. This group isn’t going to compete with the top tier for awards, but are as guaranteed as it gets in baseball to be solid, mid-3.00s pitchers.
The Upside Tier
Kyle Bradish, BAL
Grayson Rodriguez, BAL
Ryan Pepiot, TBR
I think a lot of people would rank Bradish much higher, possibly in the Ace Tier. He posted a 2.83 ERA in 168 innings last year, good for 4th in Cy Young voting. I will respond by pointing out his nonexistent track record of excellent before 2023 and 3.77 xERA. That’s still pretty solid! But I’d bet on Bradish posting an ERA near the Reliability Tier next year, with more downside risk. Combine that with relatively short outings, and I think Bradish is a lot riskier than people think. He could repeat as an ace, or he could sink back down closer to a 4.00 ERA. In fact, I’m tempted to rank Grayson Rodriguez ahead of him as the more talented pitcher who has serious ace-level talent and posted a big second half.
The Rebound Tier
Nestor Cortes, NYY
Carlos Rodon, NYY
Lucas Giolito, BOS
John Means
The top three of these guys could be aces next year. Cortes and Rodon both posted ERAs in the 2.00s from 2021-2022. You have to go back to 2021 to find Giolito’s ace year, but he certainly has the talent to do it again. Someone in this tier is getting Cy Young votes. Someone else is going to pitch 20 innings with an ERA over 6.00.
Means is stuck at the end of the tier a little awkwardly. He was excellent after returning from Tommy John, but his upside to me is more in the Reliability Tier than the Ace Tier. He also has to hold up for a full season post-surgery.
The Mid Tier
Zack Littell, TBR
Dean Kremer, BAL
Tyler Wells, BAL
Yusei Kikuchi, TOR
Nick Pivetta, BOS
Aaron Civale, TBR
Taj Bradley, TBR
Brayan Bello, BOS
Kutter Crawford, BOS
Clark Schmidt, NYY
Hey look, Boston enters the list! This tier is a hodgepodge of young or inconsistent players. All project to post an ERA in the low-to-mid-4.00s on Fangraphs. Any tier list should be fat near the average and this one is no exception.
Schmidt is clearly on the bottom of this tier. He had the worst season of all the healthy players on this list. He’s sneaky old at 28. That said, I think Yankee fans underrate Schmidt’s strength as a #5 starter. The Yankees have four starters above the Mid Tier. Tampa and Baltimore have #5 starters above Schmidt, but Taj Bradley and Tyler Wells aren’t exactly future aces. The Yankees are fine with Schmidt in the Opening Day rotation.
The May Not Be a MLB Starter Tier
Tanner Hauck, BOS
Alek Manoah, TOR
Houck’s conversion from relief to starting pitching ended with a 5.00 ERA. Manoah’s 2023 season ended with him not reporting to Triple-A. Manoah obviously has huge upside, but I’m not sure he is even going to start in the majors.
Bottom Line
The Yankees stack up well against the AL East. Only Toronto, one of top two or three teams in starting pitching in all of MLB, is clearly ahead of them in starting pitching. However, their rotation is a lot different than Baltimore and Tampa. Both of those teams are going to rely on a bunch of solid but unspectacular Mid Tier starters, while the Yankees are relying on Rebound Tier starters. That’s another way of saying that the Yankees have a much wider range of possibilities than Baltimore and Tampa. Rodon and Cortes could come back as aces, but also both flop. If the former, then the Yankees will have a better rotation than even the Blue Jays. If the latter, then they’ll have to hope that Will Warren and Cody Poteet are MLB starters.
