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  • Tim Kabel

Revisiting My Preseason Predictions

By Tim Kabel

July 5, 2022


About Yesterday: The Yankees Did Not Venture Forth on the Fourth

Yesterday was the Fourth of July. Oddly, the Yankees did not have a game scheduled. They were also off on Memorial Day. Slackers!! When I was a kid, not only did they play on every holiday, but they also usually had a doubleheader. Oh well, such is life. The Yankees have played eighty games. Their record is 58-22. It is essentially the halfway mark of the season. Since I don’t have a game to recap, I decided to pull out my pre-season predictions, to see how I measure up. Consider it a mid-term exam. Roger, old chap, have the red pen at the ready.

How many wins will the Yankees have this season?

98 (At this point, if they play .500 ball for the rest of the year, they will win 99 games. I feel good about this one.)

Who will win the American League East?

The Yankees. Toronto will be second. (The Yankees lead the division by 13 gamers over the Red Sox. Toronto is in third place, 14 games out. Again, I feel good about this.)

How many times will Aaron Boone get ejected?

6 (I believe he has been ejected 3 times so far, so I am in good shape there, too.)

Will Aaron Hicks be the Yankees' starting center fielder for the entire season?

No. (He has been replaced by Aaron Judge. I’m looking like Nostradamus.)

How many Yankees will hit 40 or more home runs?

3. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Joey Gallo. (I am on target with the number, but not with Gallo. Rizzo is on pace for over 40.)

How many different pitchers will start games for the Yankees this year?

11 (They are at 8 so far. This is realistic.)

How many times will I use the term "Boone-proofing" in an article? (Not including this one.)

37. (I have only used it a handful of times. Basically, the team has been Boone-proofed, because he hasn’t been in the way of their phenomenal start.)

How many home runs will Aaron Judge hit?

54 (He is on a pace for at least 58.)

How many games will Gerrit Cole win?

19 (It is possible. He has 7 so far.)

Will the Yankees acquire another frontline starting pitcher between now and the trading deadline?

Yes (They could still do it but, I don’t think they need to.)

Will Aaron Hicks have more: home runs, stolen bases, or games on the IL?

Games on the IL (This is still touch and go. “Mr. 30-30" has seven stolen bases and three home runs. He is one bone bruise away from an extended IL stint.)

How many Yankees will hit 30 or more home runs?

6. Judge, Stanton, Gallo, Josh Donaldson, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Rizzo. (This one doesn’t look so great. 4 seems to be a more realistic number. Torres could do it, as he has 13 at this point.)

How many times will Aaron Boone say in a postgame press conference, “I really like the way we're getting after it.”? (Or something very similar)

73 (Again, this has only happened a few times, because the team is winning.)

Who will win more games, Max Scherzer or Gerrit Cole?

Cole. (Scherzer has been injured but, Cole is ahead, 7-5.)

Who will hit more home runs, Clint Frazier or Aaron Hicks?

Frazier. (Frazier, who now goes by Jackson, instead of Clint, is back with the Cubs minor league team and is starting to hit. If he is called up, 3 home runs is not an insurmountable total.)

Who will hit more home runs, Gary Sanchez or the combination of Kyle Higashioka and Ben Rortvedt?

Higashioka/Rortvedt (If we substitute Trevino for Rortvedt, the Yankees' duo has 11, as opposed to nine for Sanchez. Trevino wasn’t on the roster when I wrote the original piece.)

Which team will win more games, the Yankees or the Mets?

The Yankees. (At this point, the Yankees lead 58-49.)

Who will win more games, Jacob deGrom or Nestor Cortes, Jr.?

Nestor is the bester. (deGrom has been out all year but, Nestor is coming into his own. He is better than the rester.)

Who will have more stolen bases, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, or Aaron Hicks?

Kiner-Falefa. (Kiner-Falefa leads 12-7.)

How many Yankees will hit 20 or more home runs this season?

9. Judge, Stanton, Gallo, Rizzo, Torres, Donaldson, Kyle Higashioka, Ben Rortvedt, DJ Lemahieu. (This one doesn’t look so great either. Gallo could do it but, it probably won’t be with the Yankees. Donaldson and LeMahieu could possibly do it. Carpenter might have a shot, too.)

Which Aaron is least likely to be on the Yankees in 2023?


Who will win the World Series?

The Yankees (I stand by this one.)

Who will win the American League MVP?

Giancarlo Stanton (Judge looks like the clear choice but, Stanton has not had one of his torrid stretches yet.)

Who will win the American League Cy Young Award?

Gerrit Cole (Still a strong candidate.)

All in all, things are fairly close to where I predicted they would be. Many people thought I was off-base on a lot of them, particularly the win total and the home runs for Judge. I’m off to buy some lottery tickets. Hopefully, it’s not a Shirley Jackson lottery.



Jul 05, 2022

How many wins will the Yankees have this season?

98 (At this point, if they play .500 ball for the rest of the year, they will win 99 games. I feel good about this one.)

no reason to feel good. you underestimated and are hoping that the team fails to give full effort for the balance of the season.

the obvious truth is that this is NOT a .500 team and expecting them to be one for the second half of the season is not something that should engender good feeling

Paul Semendinger
Paul Semendinger
Jul 05, 2022
Replying to

Fair point, but I read it differently.

I read it as "many people thought the Yankees would struggle. I thought they'd win 98 games. It looks like they'll win more than that so this prediction seems almost like a given."

If the Yankees play .500 ball the rest of the way, no one will be happy!

dr sem.png

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