Some Quick Thoughts on Roki Sasaki

by EJ Fagan

November 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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You’ve probably heard about Roki Sasaki, the 23 year-old Japanese phenom that is being posted. He’s a starter. He throws 96-98 mph. He’s going to be available for basically no money and under team control for six years. Teams can only pay him what is left in their international bonus pool. Pretty much every team is on equal footing for his services.

Every team in baseball will be rightfully interested in Sasaki’s services. He’s basically free and carries enormous potential. I think he’s a little bit overhyped - he’s had trouble staying healthy and took some small steps back in 2024. Lance Brozdowski did a great video discussing his strengths and shortcomings:

That said, I damn sure want the Yankees to sign him. I see a lot of people assume that he is heading to the Dodgers. That may be the case. No one knows what is inside his head. But a few thoughts:

• Sasaki is a 6-man rotation guy. He’s had injury issues. He throws super hard, but has a wirey frame that may not be able to sustain 100 mphs for too long. And of course, Japan is a 6-man rotation league.

• The Dodgers have a unique pitch. They are Japan's team, with its two biggest stars on the roster. Sasaki may have an easier time making up for his lost salary with endorsements in Los Angeles. They already have a 6-man rotation set up with Ohtani. If “maximize endorsement money” is the goal, I think Sasaki is pretty much guaranteed to be a Dodger. He’s also basically guaranteed that his team will be contending for a World Series.

• The Yankees can match some of the Dodgers’ advantages. They have a history of top Japanese players being massive stars in New York. Remember the press that used to follow around Hideki Matsui? They can also promise a 6-man rotation give how deep the starting staff is. Like the Dodgers, the Yankees are pretty certain to field competitive teams for Sasaki.

• The Yankees have a strong pitch on health. It gets lost in the shuffle, but the Yankees have done a pretty remarkable job at keeping their major league starting pitching healthy during the Boone Era. I believe that the last season ending arm injury that a Yankee starting pitcher suffered was Luis Severino in 2019. Maybe other teams would have lost Cortes, Cole and Schmidt to Tommy John while the Yankees caught it early. I wonder if they have figured something out, or could at least make that argument to Sasaki.

• Matt Blake. Sasaki is a somewhat unfinished product. Matt Blake is one of the best pitching coaches in the league, supported by a strong pitching infrastructure. I bet they can present a solid coaching case to Sasaki that might persuade him over going elsewhere.

• Sasaki would solve a lot of problems for the Yankees roster. Juan Soto pinches their budget a little bit, but Sasaki would make the league minimum. They could focus more of their post-Soto budget on relief pitching and hitting without having to fork over big money to an aging pitcher. They also add another player to their young core of prospects to carry the torch as Judge and Cole age.

  
  

Of course, Sasaki could choose something weird. Ohtani signed with the Angels after all. But it sure would be fun if he came to New York.