Spencer Jones' Fatal Flaw

By Andy Singer

October 11th, 2026

Spencer Jones was a pleasant surprise to many fans and observers alike over the last couple of months of the season. Jones struck out almost as much as most expected, but he found ways to get on-base consistently, hit for a decent batting average, and flashed the pop for which he became known down in the minor leagues. If we were to just scout the stat line and general anecdotal impressions of Spencer Jones' play, one would conclude that Spencer Jones' rookie campaign was largely a success. Before I go any further, that impression isn't altogether incorrect. There's no mysticism in the bottom-line numbers. Spencer Jones was pretty good as a rookie and was a critical part of replacing the injured Aaron Judge (and Trent Grisham) in the 2nd half of the season. His regular season performance gave Yankee fans hope that he can become a key contributor to the next generation of Yankee teams.

I predicted that Spencer Jones would struggle mightily at the plate in the playoffs, and that's exactly what came to pass. Jones whiffed on close to 50% of the pitches at which he swung in the playoffs and produced a very empty .300 OBP. Yes, he was able to get on-base in some situations where it really mattered, but his bat did not make a consistent impact on playoff games.

Some might chalk this up to a young player getting his feet wet at the Major League level. After all, many observers have noted that Spencer Jones went through an adjustment period at each level of the minor leagues before breaking out, and he could be going through the same thing here in the Majors. His supporters will also note that Jones is prone to significant cold streaks, and this one just came at the wrong time. Both of those statements might be true!

However, Jones' playoff performance highlighted something that I've been talking about since he was in AA, and now we have numbers to quantify the idea. I have long noted that Spencer Jones has a huge hole against fastballs at the top of the zone (no, they do not even need to be good, hard fastballs; just the location is enough). Let's take a look at Jones' batting average by zone during the 2026 MLB regular season:

If you've ever wondered what scouts mean by a grooved swing, that's it. Jones' bat path allows him to club balls over the middle and at the bottom of the zone closer to his body, but not much else. Jones' performance is worst at the top of the strike zone, a place where pitchers are primarily planting fastballs. Again, Jones saw all manner of fastballs up there, both good and bad; he really didn't hit any of them with authority, and by any measure (including batting average, as you can see above) Jones simply couldn't handle pitches up there.

More than not being able to do real damage on pitches up there, Jones struggled to even make contact when he swung at pitches on the upper third of the plate:

Like most Major League players, Jones doesn't whiff as much at pitches in the strike zone; in fact, he whiffs less than most Major Legue players on balls on the lower-inner third of the plate, a fact that surprised me. However, his struggles with whiffs at the top of the zone are clear, and it is by far his worst zone by whiff rate inside the strike zone.

In the playoffs, this gap was even worse. According to Statcast, just 15.5% of the pitches Jones saw in the playoffs were balls at the top of the strike zone. Those pitches averaged 93.9 MPH, below the Major League average and even further below the average playoff velocity on fastballs up in the zone. Jones whiffed on an almost unbelievable 72.7% of those pitches, and pitchers finished him off with 2 strikes on 50% of the fastballs they threw up there. While they didn't necessarily pound the top of the zone on Jones as much as I expected, they were incredibly effective when they did.

I've seen a lot of analysis about Jones' swing length as it relates to hard fastballs up. Many have noted that Jones needs to shorten up his swing at the top of the zone. Logically, that makes sense. Part of what concerns me about Jones' ability to eventually hit fastballs up is that Jones has already shortened up his swing on balls up in the zone. Check it out:

If you measure swing length on pitches up in the zone as a percentage of average swing length, Jones already has one of the shortest swings of any Yankee on pitches at the top of the zone, and employs a similar swing length strategy to Aaron Judge. If swing length isn't the answer, and Jones has struggled to adjust throughout his minor league career to that location and pitch type, I'm not sure there is an answer to Jones' problem.

Much has been written about Jones' quest to improve his defense this off-season, which is understandable because he isn't nearly as good a defensive outfielder as his tools suggest. I would argue that finding a way to close this hole at the top of the zone is far more critical to Jones' future success at the plate in the Major Leagues. Right now, pitchers can beat Jones with ease with velocity at the top of the zone and soft stuff below the zone. It's really tough to guard against both zones all the time without closing gaps on one of them. Closing the gap at the top of the zone would allow Jones to guess soft stuff low and lay off of it with two strikes more easily.

Without some form of swing change, I think pitchers are going to exploit this gap far more next season. Without change, I don't think Spencer Jones will be a consistently effective big league hitter over the long haul.