SSTN Mailbag: A Choice, Statistics, And Stanton!

So close, yet so far. Pitchers and catchers report on February 15th, a mere 3 weeks away. December and January have moved at the speed of light (for me, anyway), but baseball's off-season has stalled to a near-crawl, with 3 of the 5 or 6 top free agents still available on the market. Frankly, I'm sick of thinking about them, so I wish they'd sign already and get it over with. That reality makes it feel like Spring Training is really far away, but I also know that our long wait will be over soon.

The coming of spring has me feeling optimistic. Let's imagine a world where nothing else is done, and this is the roster that the Yankees go into the season with. Do I think it will need supplementation at some point? Yes. Do I think they're a playoff team? Also yes. Are they more volatile than I'd like to see? Yes. With this roster, I can see a scenario where they win 95+ games, but I can also see a scenario where they win 84-ish games and are on the outside looking in, which is totally unacceptable. I don't want this team to go into the season 1-2 pieces short...again. I think they need either a solid reliever and/or an innings eating starter, and I wouldn't be opposed to an established utility infielder or a good bench bat that broke free. We focus a lot on splashy moves, but sometimes it's the moves on the margins that make the most difference.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll make a choice between two roster options, discuss the role of statistics in evaluating baseball, and make some predictions about Giancarlo Stanton! Let's get at it:

Fuster asks: More and more assume that the Yankees sign ONE additional highly-paid free agent

AND assume that the Yankees have surplus player personnel sufficient to allow for ONE significant trade

do you sign a pitcher or position player

and do you trade for a pitcher or position player 

after signing the free agent?

I think it takes an awful lot of assumptions to say that the Yankees will both make one more big signing and a significant trade, but I like the concept, so I'll bite.

All of you know what I think the Yankees need in the rotation, so my inclination is to say that the Yankees should sign Jordan Montgomery (were he willing to be a Yankee again) and make a trade for a versatile left-handed bat, even if it isn't flashy. This would give the Yankees the durable innings-eater they desperately need and drastically increase lineup depth that will surely be tested at some point. I believe in this premise strongly enough that I'm inclined to make this my answer.

Of course, I'm beginning to buy into the idea that Monty is really waiting out the Rangers' TV deal situation to sort itself out before signing in Texas, which means the best available pitcher is Blake Snell. This isn't inherently a bad thing, but I don't believe he fits the Yankees' needs as well as Monty. Snell/position player trade is not as appealing to me as Monty/position player trade.

It could have something to do with listening to our Editor-In-Chief bang this drum for weeks now, but I am warming to the idea of grabbing Cody Bellinger if, indeed, his market has really shrunk to the point where a short-term, high-AAV contract is possible. Brain injuries are scary, and I really do worry about Rizzo returning to form this year. The lineup, as constructed, really depends on his bat to be impactful, and I think one of the real questions coming into 2024 is how Rizzo responds to full-speed gameplay. We all watched Clint Frazier's career fizzle after multiple issues with concussions, and I worry that Rizzo could have more issues than we initially assume. Bellinger can play CF, spell Rizzo at 1B, and if my worries about his underlying numbers prove to be inconsequential in 2024, then the Yankees would put together a monster middle of the order with Bellinger in the fold.

That leaves the remaining pieces on the farm to trade for a good pitcher, either in the rotation or the bullpen. I think this combination would likely move the needle in terms of win expectancy far more than my initial thoughts.

So, put me down for a short-term, high-AAV contract for Bellinger and a trade for a pitcher, if we assume the Yankees will do both a signing and a trade (again, a big IF).

Jason says: I just wanted to write to say that I appreciated your take on evaluating players and prospects. I think that new age statistics have become too overvalued and no one is really looking at what matters anymore, and that's what happens on the field!!! Thanks for putting it in writing.

I got a couple of notes like this in the SSTN Mailbag after my Tuesday morning post. I wanted to clarify my thoughts a bit here. I'm as nerdy as it gets. I do really enjoy learning about new ways of evaluating performance through statistics, and I also believe there is a lot of value in the statistics teams and publicly available sites are generating and sharing. Exit Velocity, Spin Rates, Spin Direction, Launch Angle, WAR, wRC+, Contact Rates, Outs Above Average, etc. all have their place in the world. I don't want anyone to think that I have suddenly had a re-awakening where I don't like those statistics anymore.

However, I don't believe that any one statistic is the be all and end all. I believe what I have been saying for years now: statistics can help us quantify and inform what our eyes see on the field. Statistics can also disavow us of notions that are based on inherent biases in the way we see the game on the field. Sometimes, statistics can just confirm what our eyes see.

The reality is that we need all of it: scouting, statistics, video analysis, and biometric data. To ignore data of all kinds is to ensure that you will miss something. Lately, I have been using more simplistic statistics in posts to make points that I also could have made with more advanced statistics, because when a story can be told in its simplest form, it is more accessible. I also believe that there is not enough video analysis around the internet today, so I'm trying to incorporate more of that as well.

Analysis is at its best when you can combine statistics and video to make a point. I appreciate everyone who reached out regarding my post, but I do want to make it clear that statistics are still important, as much as I like video and being a baseball rat.

Jeff asks: We've all seen the pictures of a much smaller Stanton by now. Realistically what do you expect from him this year? Is he totally cooked, or will he be productive?

I don't think he's totally cooked, and I do expect some bounce-back. I don't think he'll come all the way back though. I'm just going to go out on a limb and predict the following line for him:

105 GP, .225/.315./.500, 28 HR

He'll be a very useful player, when healthy, albeit an imperfect hitter. There will be huge hot streaks, and some pretty low lows, but I do believe he'll be a guy the Yankees want around in 2024.