SSTN Mailbag: ABS, Jones and Dominguez, And Trading Pitching!

Spring Training has mercifully arrived! I, for one, was completely done with a winter without baseball. Over the course of this week, Yankee fans have actually had some good news for a change. Cole, Rodon, and Volpe are all right on schedule with surgery recovery, and Cole might actually be ahead. Every Yankee reported to camp on-time or early. In fact, a very large contingent of players have been down at the Spring Training complex in Tampa for weeks now, including Aaron Judge. We really haven't heard of any new injuries like we usually do in the opening days of camp, save for Schlittler's minor back strain that, for once, the team and the player are using caution in handling. Again, I think this team has a chance to be excellent. No, the Yankees didn't buy everyone under the sun, nor did they necessarily take the path I would have taken to build this roster with roughly the same cash outlay, but at least the team is still here. I am ready to sit back, listen to John Fogerty sing "Centerfield," and enjoy the ride.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about the ABS, Jones and Dominguez, and pitching trades! Let's get at it:

Brian asks: What Yankee player do you think is helped the most and who do you think is hurt the most by the new ABS system being installed in MLB parks this year?

I think the person it helps the most is obviously Aaron Judge. For much of his career, Judge has been victimized by strike calls 2+ inches below his strike zone. That is not necessarily a knock on umpires; I'm sure it's difficult to adjust your frame of reference for one player who is such an outlier compared to everyone else in size. I expect Aaron Judge to thrive in getting erroneous low strikes reversed. I'm not sure how it will impact Judge's stat line, but any time you can give the best player in baseball more favorable counts, I think it's a win.

Conversely, I think that Austin Wells is the player with the most to lose under the new ABS system. Wells is widely considered one of the best pitch framers in the game, and that skillset makes up a significant amount of his defensive value behind the plate as he's just an average-ish blocker of the baseball with a below-average arm. While pitch framing will remain a valuable skillset, I don't expect Wells to steal as many strikes as he has in his first two full seasons of play. That reality will impact the overall value of framing, even if Wells will remain a good framer relative to the rest of the league.

I admit, I am very interested to see how ABS impacts the game this season.

fantasyfb3313 asks: I still think the most likely thing is that one of Jdom or Jones gets traded at some point between now and the end of July.

IF they trade one before opening day, who is it and what for?

If they wait until deadline day, who is it and what for?

I really don't expect the Yankees to deal either of these guys before the end of Spring Training. The rumors coming from the Yankee front office and scouting community indicate that they really want to see the Jones experiment play out fully. If that's the case, trading him before he gets a second taste of AAA should be seen as highly unlikely unless the Yankees are blown away by a trade proposal. If the Yankees were going to get a trade proposal like that, I think it would have happened already.

Right now, Dominguez is 4th on the outfield depth chart and the only backup outfielder that is a good bet to be an average or better hitter from the left-side of the plate. Yes, he needs to continue to grow as a left fielder and hitting from the right-side, but he can continue to get that experience either on the big league bench in a part-time role or playing everyday at AAA. Progression is not linear, and I don't think it's fair to write Dominguez off yet. I don't think the Yankees will either, given his potential and the likelihood for injuries to open up significant playing time for reserve outfielders at some point this season. Again, I don't see the Yankees getting a call about Dominguez before the season starts that's more valuable than having Dominguez around for insurance and his potential.

A lot can change between now and the trade deadline. Injuries and underperformance can strike any part of the roster to make needs that don't seem significant right now major hindrances to a long postseason run. I could easily see the Yankees hunting for a pitcher or a 3B in a few months time. By the trade deadline, more MLB-quality help should shake free as some teams fall out of playoff contention. I recognize that this isn't a fun answer that has some real specifics, but I think there are going to be a bunch of names that we're not thinking about right now available at the trade deadline.

fantasyfb3313 also asks: Gil really scares me and I love the idea of Gil for Hoerner straight up but I fear that leaves our opening day rotation a bit risky. that said I am not positive how much better i feel with Gil than I do with Weathers and / or Yarbrough

Gil looks healthy at the start of camp, and reportedly hit 95 MPH on the radar gun in his first live batting practice session, which is really strong for this point in camp. I would also caution our readers regarding cost; I think acquiring a player like Hoerner will cost more than just "Gil straight up." Hoerner (or Matt Shaw) could very well be examples of players who could be available at the trade deadline if the Cubs' reload fails spectacularly. The cost will be less at the deadline than it is now and I doubt the Cubs will trade either right now.

As I noted in my post about Ryan Weathers, I think there are really good reasons to feel good about him this season. The perception that Weathers has always been hurt is false (it was true the last two seasons, but all of the injuries were fluky as opposed to structural), when healthy the last two seasons, he was very good, and there are very clear paths for Weathers to perform even better with some tweaks that the Yankee pitching group is quite good at making. I happen to like Weathers quite a bit more than Gil long-term. It also would not shock me in the slightest to see Gil move to the bullpen at some point this season.

Again, for right now, I think the Yankees have to stand pat with the pitchers in camp. As I always say: pitcher is a Greek word for breaks frequently and often irreparably. Teams rarely make it through Spring Training with all of their pitching intact, and the WBC will add another layer to that this year. Trading pitching at this time of year simply won't make sense.

I recognize that I am in the minority. I believe that the Yankee pitching staff is quite good, and any weakness in the bullpen could be supplemented by starters who convert later in the year. I really think that acquiring a starting pitcher should be far down the Yankees' list of priorities, but I also don't think there's quite enough depth to trade from the surplus yet.