How do we feel today? I have a hunch the answer to that question is different than it would have been just a few days ago. Since Wednesday's thrilling walk-off, we've watched Nestor get left in an inning too long only for he and the bullpen to implode in spectacular fashion, and we saw the Yankees waste an opportunity last night after Clarke Schmidt pitched 5 innings of 1-run ball, only to watch the Yankees make Kyle Gibson look like mid-90s Tom Glavine (note to all: if Kyle Gibson looks like Tom Glavine, you're doing something wrong as an offense). The Yanks had an opportunity to get right back in the thick of the tough AL East race, and they couldn't muster the same level of play they showed against Toronto. It was a frustrating couple of days, and it brings me back to my response to this week's SSTN Tuesday Discussion: the team is good as currently constructed, but I don't think they're for real without full-health and supplementation either from the outside or from one of the high-upside kids coming from AA or AAA.
One of the kids about whom I am irrationally excited is coming up for a spot start tonight: Randy Vasquez. Most talent evaluators and observers project Vasquez as a reliever due to a high-effort delivery, small stature, and command that will likely come-and-go as a result of that delivery. I recognize all of that, however Vasquez has something that few other relief-bound prospects possess: 4 average-or-better pitches, including a wipeout slurve (some call it a slider, some call it a curve; it's shape is a textbook tweener that gets swings and misses with one of the highest spin rates in professional baseball). Vasquez also operates with a fastball that lives in the 92-95 MPH range, but can peak higher, a hard change-up with good fade, and a new cutter that has helped against lefties. Despite his high walk rate this season, Vasquez has traditionally thrown a lot of strikes, and has shown emerging command with his fastball and change-up this season. His high-level numbers at AAA aren't inspiring: 4.85 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, but a 30.5% strikeout rate and a bloated .351 BABIP that indicates a lot of bad luck. More to the point, in his last 5 starts, Vasquez has looked far better: 5-6 innings per start, 2.67 ERA, 54% groundball rate, and a similarly high strikeout rate. The guy keeps outperforming expectations, and I'm rooting for him to come up big for the Yanks tonight.
As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Judge's place in the batting order, the automated strike zone's effect on pitchers, and Harrison Bader's offense. Let's get at it:
G writes: Tell Boone that Ruth, Musial and Williams never lived in the 2nd spot in the batting order.
It's true, those players rarely hit in the 2nd spot in the lineup. However, the game was also played very differently then and we've also learned a lot about run expectancy. Batting Aaron Judge in the 2-hole seems off to those of us with a traditional mindset, it's true, but that doesn't necessarily make it wrong.
The idea is multi-fold. For one, it gets Judge more at-bats over the course of a long season, which is clearly a benefit: the more time you get your best hitter to the plate, particularly one as powerful as Judge, the more opportunities you have to score runs. Second, and less obvious, while Judge's RBI opportunities likely decrease in the 2-hole versus the 3-hole or clean-up, he has the opportunity to score more runs without giving up much in the way of RBIs, relatively speaking.
Again, numerous studies have been done on optimizing batting orders, and they almost universally show that a team will score more runs over the course of a 162-game season by batting your best hitter second. That said, relatively speaking, the difference between an optimized lineup and a random lineup isn't that significant.
In a perfect world, I'd love to bat Judge 3rd. I'd want a speedy, high-OBP guy batting 1st, my second-best hitter batting second, and Judge batting third. I'd also want a speedy player with a high-contact profile batting ninth. However, as the Yankee lineup is currently constructed, I'm fine with Judge batting second since we really don't have the right combination described above...yet.
Brian asks: Did you see Severino's comments about young guys bouncing back and forth between the minors and the majors with the automated balls and strikes system? Did what he said make sense to you? I'm worried about the automated strike zone coming, even if I was wrong about the pitch clock.
Yes, I did see what Sevy had to say about pitching against the automated strike zone. I think besides the headline of, "It sucks," I thought Sevy's reasoning was actually very interesting. His primary complaints were as follows:
The strike zone didn't extend high enough in the zone. Sevy's point was that pitchers who try to live with high-spin fastballs at the top of the zone, like himself and Justin Verlander, will lose one of their best weapons without some adjustment to the zone being used currently.
Sevy felt that bifurcation, or the use of an automated strike zone in AAA while traditional strike zones are used in MLB, will have a negative developmental effect on young pitchers trying to establish themselves in the big leagues who might bounce back-and-forth. Given the difference in the total zone, Sevy believes that pitchers have to pitch differently in the minors versus the Majors to be successful.
Honestly, I had never considered this possibility, but I think Sevy's second point is incredibly valid. What kind of impact will the different zones have on up-and-down pitchers this season, and will it impact their development? I don't think any of us have an answer to that question, and it's one that I think is fairly critical.
The skeptic in me says that MLB's response to this issue would be to rush the system to the big leagues, which of course is the wrong answer...which means it's the most likely answer. I really believe this system is coming to MLB next season or the one after, particularly given the fact that home plate umps seem to get worse by the year.
It is clear the system still needs a lot of tweaking. Hopefully MLB is listening to veteran pitchers like Luis Severino as they evaluate necessary changes to the system.
Dave asks: What do you make of Bader's offense so far? Some big moments, but also long stretches of time where he doesn't do anything.
I can't help but think of a line from my least favorite broadcaster: "That's baseball, Susan!" Baseball is a game of failure, so long stretches between impactful offensive moments are a feature, not a bug. Overall, Bader has been an excellent hitter in the bottom-half of the order for the Yankees since his return this season, albeit in just 76 at-bats. Remember, given Bader's all-world defense, if he's just average offensively, he's an All-Star caliber player; if he gives more than average offense, it's a huge boost to the team. I've opined since the day the trade was made that Bader could be above-average offensively for the Yankees, and that's what he's been.
What I will say is that Bader's average exit velocity is very low, and the reason is readily apparent: for every ball he hits hard, he hits a high percentage of weakly hit balls:
Now, the distribution of hard-hit balls is higher than the weakly hit balls, but that's a lot of weak contact. Interestingly, Bader's speed is an asset in this department, as he can turn some weak grounders into hits, and with his fly ball profile, he also gets his fair share of bloopers.
The other aspect of Bader's profile I liked at Yankee Stadium was that he got unlucky with the Cards because fly balls to right-center, which Bader hits a lot of, died in his home ballpark. That's not the case in New York, and he's hit two homers already this year at Yankee Stadium that would not have been homers in St. Louis.
What do I think? I was the first person on the Bader train, and I'm not getting off now. Is he Aaron Judge? No. Is he a key piece to the puzzle this season? Definitely.
