SSTN Mailbag: Free Agent Re-Signings, Wells, And AFL!

We knew this would be the case coming into this season, but the AL East is a brutally tough division. As decimated by injury as the Yankees have been, they are 19-15 since July 1st, and they've been significantly better against tough competition in recent weeks, despite the sluggish offense. What do the Yankees have to show for it, you might ask? They've fallen deeper in the AL East standings and the Red Sox are nipping at the Yankees' heels.

When you start running the probabilities, it becomes very difficult to see the Yankees winning the AL East, save for one factor: the Yankees have a favorable schedule in September, save for a late-season 4-game set against the Rays. Reading the tea leaves, I think it sets up for a very exciting end-of-season race. Maybe the Yankees will get lucky and Judge, Bellinger, Stanton, Rodon, and Schmidt will all be healthy by then. That sure would make things exciting.

As depressing as it seems to be 6.5 games out of first place, I think it's reasonably impressive that the Yankees have won this many games without the core of their lineup. If the goal is to peak in September and October, the Yankees just might find a way to pull it off.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about the Yankees' impending free agents this offseason, Austin Wells' recent resurgence, and Arizona Fall League assignments! Let's get at it:

Michael G. asks: Among the free agents to be do we resign any of them? What do they need to do down the stretch to change your mind?

Here is the list of guys who will be free agents this winter:

• Trent Grisham

• Paul Goldschmidt

• Tim Hill

• Ryan Yarbrough

• Amed Rosario

• Paul Blackburn

• David Bednar

• Jazz Chisholm Jr.

That's more free agents than I think I realized. I don't expect the vast majority of these guys to come back next year. My thoughts on each:

I was one of the few people who was okay with the Trent Grisham qualifying offer, and frankly, given the circumstances even in hindsight, I think it was the right move. That said, Grisham is clearly not capable of handling CF defensively anymore and while some of his offensive improvement has stuck, his bat is replaceable. I like Grisham, but I don't think he fits after this season.

Goldy is done as anything more than a platoon specialist, and I think he might even be done there. With everyone healthy, I think the Yankees have to have a real conversation about whether Rosario or Goldy are DFA'd to make room.

Hill's magic appears to be gone as hitters are now catching up to his breaking stuff and arm slot. The Yankees can do better on the free agent market.

Yarbrough is a perfectly cromulent long-man. Again, I think the Yankees can fill this role more cheaply.

Rosario has struggled as a platoon bat with defensive versatility, but poor capability everywhere. He won't be back.

The Yankees should re-sign Paul Blackburn. He's been excellent, and the tweaks to his arsenal make him a valuable cog in the bullpen.

Likewise, the Yankees should re-sign David Bednar. He's one of the best closers in baseball, and I think his early season struggles and velocity loss were products of the WBC.

I am really on the fence about Jazz, because I really love watching him play. Though he doesn't get credit for it, he's an excellent defender at 2B, and he's one of the best baserunners on the team. Coming into the year, I thought he'd be one of the best free agents on the market and that the cost would way outstrip the value Jazz could provide. Now? I think Jazz might need a 1-year pillow deal.

Jazz is the only guy who could do something to sway me one way or the other over the last 2.5 months of the season. If I see evidence that he makes a mechanical tweak or two to keep the bat head in the zone longer and swing with a bit less effort (Jazz's hands are so strong that he really can whip the bat through the zone even with less effort), I'd be inclined to take a flier. If he tanks the rest of the way, I think it's time for the Yankees to cut ties.

To sum up, I'd re-sign Blackburn and Bednar, and I'm on the fence about Jazz.

James K. asks: Do you believe in Wells' recent hot streak? ESPN said that he's lowered his launch angle during his recent hot streak. Have their been mechanical changes that caused this?

Yes, I do believe in Wells' recent hot streak, but launch angle has less than nothing to do with it. Be really, really careful listening to the broadcasters on ESPN's national broadcasts. Far too often, they either oversimplify topics or are just plain wrong. Here is Wells' rolling launch angle chart this season:

One of Wells' worst stretches of the season coincided with his lowest launch angles of the season. Yes, Wells' launch angle has trended downward since July, but if you notice, his recent hottest streak actually coincides with the sharp rise in launch angle at the end of the chart. At best, there is weak coorelation with Wells' performance and launch angle this season. The middle of the season is skewed higher because of all the weak pop-ups mixed with groundballs and almost nothing in the 10-30 degree launch window that most guys have success in.

I can't commit to a full post on it, but Wells has made some subtle mechanical changes in recent weeks. He's sitting deeper into his left leg at load and is in a deeper squat as a result. This is giving him a better load that puts the bat in a position to react quickly. He also looks healthier to me. Earlier this season, we often saw Wells' hand come off of the bat mid-swing, almost as though he was having trouble gripping. I haven't seen him do that in close to a month now, and it cooincides directly with this hot streak.

Alan B. asks: Outside of Roderick Arias and a healthy Pico Kohn, who are some of the other guys you'd want to send to the AFL? Oh, and you can't send Anthony Volpe there to get more reps at 2B.

Let's stop for a minute and acknowledge the season that Roderick Arias has had. Many people, myself included, had written off his ability to make an adjustment to put himself back in the prospect conversation. He's always had loud offensive tools, but he was so raw in terms of contact and pitch recognition, that I never thought the hit tool would come far enough to see him access any of the other tools.

He's proven me wrong. He still is among the worst contact hitters in baseball, but he's upped his swing rate against strikes to one of the highest in the minor leagues, which is allowing him to tap into his raw power with greater frequency. I still think the hit tool is a problem, but with his defensive tools and power, he's back on the prospect map. Kudos to him.

So yes, Arias should go, as should Kohn to get some innings back. If Mac Heuer comes back healthy before the end of the season, he should go. Jackson Lovich has earned an AFL appearance. Maybe Core Jackson? Tony Rossi has put together a nice season...maybe he gets a look against good prospects? I think we need to see who finishes the season healthy before we do the final list.