SSTN Mailbag: Harper, Bullpen, And Pitching Prospect Control!

It's been quite a stretch here these last 16 hours or so. First, Jasson Dominguez makes an incredible play at the wall, giving up his body in bone-crushing fashion. Leaving the game in tears, it was hard not to fear for the worst as Dominguez was carted off of the field. I think he's incredibly lucky that he came out of it with just a sprained AC joint (though don't be fooled, those can be very tricky as well). Then, the Yankees make the move many fans have been dreaming of seeing: they called up Spencer Jones.

I have very mixed thoughts about all of this. First and foremost, I really feel for Dominguez. To me, I think he came back to the big leagues as a greatly improved player, one who was set to really help the Yankees throughout the year. To be clear, he still might! However, he knew he was hurt when he hit the wall, and he also clearly understood the likelihood of losing his chance to cement his place with the Yankees. It was heartbreaking to watch.

While I am pretty clearly the low-man on Spencer Jones, there is little doubt but that his skills are very loud. It's true 80-grade raw power; many publicly available scouting reports throw around 70-80 grades far too often on prospects, but In Jones' case, it's true. He also has a great arm in the outfield, runs the bases well, and has decent range (many still believe he displays above-average speed, but that grade has backed up over the last year). The biggest issue is his hit tool.

Jones' bottom-line numbers have gotten a ton of play, as has his strikeout rate, but I'm far more concerned when you look even a little deeper. He swings and misses on more than 36% of his swings overall. More damningly, he makes contact on just barely 65% of his swings on pitches in the strike zone at AAA. As I noted in my post projecting Spencer Jones this winter, Joey Gallo made more contact in the strike zone during his MLB career. I don't see Jones making enough contact to tap into his incredible power consistently. He has a grooved swing that can really only do damage on severe misses and soft fastballs up. I would really love to be wrong, but I don't see Jones' first taste of MLB action going well. That said, he's going to get a very real opportunity to play these next few weeks; they didn't call him up to sit on the bench. Dominguez looked very good in his call-up this season. Let's see if Jones can take his spot, though I doubt it.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Bryce Harper as a potential trade chip, Yankee bullpen development, and Yankee pitching prospects' early struggles to throw strikes in the Majors! Let's get at it:

yankeerudy asks: Bleacher Report suggests that the Phillies will be sellers come the trading deadline, including listening to offers for Bryce Harper. Would he be a fit, and, if so, what might a deal look like?

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I would be very surprised if the Phillies actually put Bryce Harper on the block. I know that there was some serious animosity this offseason, but that doesn't mean that the Phillies are ready to move on. Dave Dombrowski is not someone who typically sells; he adds to try to win now. Frankly, it's a laudable goal.

Let's pretend for a minute this is a real possibility, though. We all know that many of us here in the early days of SSTN banged the table hard for the Yankees to bring in Harper when he hit free agency. He remains a great fit as a hitter for Yankee Stadium. From a fit perspective, it's tricky. Harper obviously doesn't slot in at 1B with Ben Rice around, and I have no idea if he's really capable of roaming the outfield anymore. That relegates him to DH and occasional 1B duty. Giancarlo Stanton is still around - would the Yankees actually relegate Stanton to a pinch hitter or platoon option? The fit defensively and from a roster perspective is very poor.

That said, Harper can still flat out hit. He's cut his strikeout rate to the lowest of his career, and he's making more consistent contact than he has in a long time. His power remains elite, and it plays to all fields. Frankly, I think he's among the best offensive assets in baseball once again this year after it looked like he was slowing down. For this season at least, I think anyone would want Harper on their roster. The contract, on which there's 5 years remaining after this season, is a problem, but at $27ish million AAV, it isn't really an albatross, particularly if the Phillies kicked in some money in a trade. Most teams can afford it, but given Harper's lack of defensive value, the contract is certainly underwater by a bit. Any team acquiring Harper would be doing so with the intention of trying to win it all in the next year or two, so I think the acquisition cost would run higher than raw value might otherwise indicate.

The Yankees are thin on position player talent in their system, which makes a trade match challenging. Spencer Jones/Dax Kilby, Kaeden Kent, and then some? Nothing really feels right to me from a value perspective, but maybe that gets the conversation started. Again, I don't think these two teams match up particularly well, unless it's truly a dump where Stanton goes back the other way to offset salary. Then guys like Lombard are on the table.

Harper made sense when he would only cost the Yankees money. That time has sadly passed. I will forever remember Harper as a "what could have been" scenario.

Alan B. asks: Will the Yankees move 2025 Rd 11 RHP Ben Grable through the system (already in AA), making him this year's Oren Kerkering?

As well, after seeing on MLB.com thar they'd think LHP Allen Facundo could make a Closer; Why haven't the Yankees since Sam Briend took over as the Pitching Czar (after 2019) have the Yankees not developed even one homegrown reliever ?

Yes, I think Ben Grable looks like a fast-riser to me as well. If he keeps performing like this, he might even get a look in the Bronx this year. His fastball has fantastic carry at the top of the zone and a really good breaking ball. I think he has just enough fastball to get big league hitters out and allow the other stuff to shine. I also love his demeanor on the mound.

As for Alan's second point, teams have largely moved away from specifically developing relievers. Pitchers moved to the bullpen very early in their minor league careers across the league are generally pitchers who are lesser prospects with absolutely no chance to start. This isn't Yankees specific; it's across the league. Teams favor allowing pitchers to develop primarily as starters, throwing more innings, developing more pitches, facing lineups more than once, as it helps their development more than training to come out of the bullpen. Teams generally rationalize that exercise can be performed late in development, and I generally agree with that assessment (having done both). I don't think Dellin Betances would have been as dominant had he been moved to the bullpen right from the start of his career; same for Chad Green; and ditto for Mariano Rivera.

The Yankees have one or two bullpen arms in the minors who are definitely of interest, but I think the development pathway for relievers is fine. The fact that the Yankees don't have more homegrown relievers comes down to the fact that they've sold high on most of their borderline starters in trades.

Alan B. also asks: OK, Beck did OK, but he too needs to work in strike throwing 52 pitches only 28 strikes. This is a whole other discussion, or should it be a guest piece?

I was going to make this a separate post, but it fits the Mailbag nicely this week. The raw numbers on balls and strikes for both Beck and Rodriguez are misnomers. How does a command and control artist like Beck come up and barely throw strikes 50% of the time? Well, the answer becomes clearer when you look at the pitch chart:

We see fastballs all over the edges of the zone, sliders just off the plate low on the glove side quadrant, and almost nothing over the middle of the plate. We also know that any time Beck came close to the meat of the strike zone (and even sometimes when he didn't), the pitch got hammered.

Beck commanded his pitches just fine; he also had a near 70% first pitch strike rate. He knew that he just didn't have enough raw stuff to keep hitters honest at the big league level, and he played pitches to the edges of the strike zone and tried to get them to swing off the plate. I like Beck quite a bit given the perserverence he's shown through his series of arm injuries, but his stuff just hasn't ticked up enough to live in the strike zone more often. In summation: the balls are a feature, not a bug.

Rodriguez just looked a bit amped up again in his last outing, and his first inning skews his overall strike throwing numbers a bit. He's another guy that likes to live at the edges and force hitters to chase. They do that less in the big leagues than they do at AAA. Elmer will be just fine when he recognizes that he has enough stuff to just pitch his game.

I don't think either of these guys has a control or strike-throwing problem.