SSTN Mailbag: Hoerner, IFA Signings, And Framber Valdez!

Wouldn't it be nice if the Yankees acted like the Yankees again? The team has geared its entire offseason around waiting to sign the 5th or 6th best free agent available. I like Cody Bellinger as a player, but that's the reality of his standing. Last season might very well be his best output as he heads into the meat of his 30s. The hard truth? Bellinger wasn't enough for the Yankees last year. Now, to be fair to Bellinger, Bellinger plus another piece or two might be very interesting, but it is clear that Hal Steinbrenner doesn't have the appetite for that level of spending.

You know who does have that appetite? The Dodgers. They've won 2 World Series in a row, and they just went out and signed the best free agent available, full-stop. A left-handed hitting outfielder who is a perfect fit in Yankee Stadium. Yes, it's a lot of money for the next couple of years, but it isn't an interminably long-term commitment. It just costs money, same as what the Dodgers paid for the best closer on the market. Sure, the Dodgers have won 2 consecutive World Series, but the team absolutely had holes to fill. How does a team primed to win now fill holes? Spend money.

That's the part the Yankees have been missing. They've gotten players to graduate from prospects to useful big leaguers to varying extents. They have a few stars worth building around. They have the best player in the sport, a guy who makes them contenders almost by himself with even an average supporting cast. The Yankees of old would have spent Dodger-like money to give Judge a chance at a dynasty. Instead, we're left to cross our fingers and hope that Judge isn't a more decorated Don Mattingly. There, I said "Dodger-like money." There was a time that the phrase was "Yankee-like money." Just remember though, Hal told us it's not fair to assume that the team made a profit last year...

Speaking of free agent spending, I got a few questions this week about signing Bo Bichette instead of Cody Bellinger. That's a great question, one I've pondered often since the end of the season. For those that were curious about my answer, I'll direct you to an article I wrote a couple of weeks ago. Yes, I believe the Yankees have had the wrong priorities on the free agent market this offseason.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll discuss the relative merits of Nico Hoerner, untangle what's going on with the Yankees and the International Free Agent Signing period, and evaluate Framber Valdez's fit! Let's get at it:

Fuster asks: Mulling Hoerner...

better than signing Bichette?

can Nico cover at shortstop for the start of the season?

I have been saying all offseason that I would be looking to the infield to fill the Yankees' need for a right-handed hitter. As for the question of weather Hoerner is better than signing Bichette, I'll let you be the judge. Which guy would you choose based on the below stats from 2025:

Based on offense alone, we'd all chose Player A, right? Obviously, Player A is Bo Bichette. Interestingly, we see a lot of the same offensive features that make Bichette interesting in Nico Hoerner's profile. He almost never swings and misses when a pitch is in the strike zone and he hardly ever strikes out or walks. Unfortunately, he pairs that combination with almost no power, so Hoerner's incredible contact numbers don't play up as much as they should. Making that much contact is incredibly difficult to do, which is why Bichette is such a coveted player - that combination of contact and power is really quite rare.

Interestingly, when I dig into the numbers deeper, Hoerner's max exit velocity readings indicate that his raw power can approach average, something akin to a 45 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Even more glaringly, pitchers challenge Hoerner middle-middle at a shockingly high rate, likely because Hoerner swings at a well below-average rate at those pitches. I wonder if that is some low-hanging fruit that could help Hoerner tap into a bit more doubles power and expand his profile. Surely other teams have noted this as well. With his current power profile, Hoerner is already maxed out offensively, but if he could get to more doubles, things get interesting. As it stands, he's not enough to protect Judge, but could be a very interesting lead-off hitter with his contact, speed, and elite baserunning.

Of course, no discussion of Hoerner would be complete without discussing defense. He is the best defensive 2B in baseball, though he is a natural SS, only moving over to 2B in deference to Dansby Swanson. In his time at SS, all of the metrics generally view him as somewhere between plus and elite defensively at SS. If it's of interest, he has also rated positively at 3B in limited action there. The defensive versatility might make Hoerner a better defensive fit than any free agent being publicly considered by the Yankees. I would prefer Bichette, both because he's the better player and all he'd cost is money, though I think Hoerner is a better fit than I initially considered at the beginning of the offseason.

The Cubs are clearly going for it this year, but after signing Alex Bregman, they do have a surplus of infielders, which is why many have speculated that the Cubs would be willing to deal Hoerner as he reaches the precipice of free agency. Thinking like the Cubs, I don't think I'd move Hoerner unless I got blown away. I don't expect the Yankees to blow the Cubs away with a package of near-ready prospects or big league guys for a relatively light bat. I find Hoerner interesting, but I just don't think it's all that likely.

Mark S. asks: Can you explain what's happening with the Yankees and the international signing period? I read that the Mets took the top player from the Yankees and that the Yankees have signed no one of note. Is this a weak class of guys?

You read correctly. Top international free agent, Wandy Asigen, was widely known to have a deal worked out with the Yankees for at least the last year, but he backed out a couple of months ago before ultimately signing with the Mets. The Yankees reportedly lost multiple prominent players available in the same fashion. This goes back to November, when the Yankees fired longtime International Scouting Director Donny Rowland and other members of his team.

The Yankees have had some very notable misses on the international free agent market in recent years despite spending big bonuses consistently. Since Luis Severino in 2011, who was signed prior to the institution of the current system for signing international amateur free agents, the Yankees have gotten very little value from their highest profile signings, with many estimates noting that the Yankees have produced a high volume of big leaguers, but less WAR compared to other teams over that timespan. Of note, the only big money amateur international free agent signing that has a chance to make waves with the Yankees is Jasson Dominguez. The decision made by Brian Cashman and the front office was warranted.

What makes the decision curious was the timing. It appears that Rowland's contract expired just prior to the signing period, so the upheaval in the Yankees' international scouting department really upended the trust that many players available for this and future signing periods had in the Yankees. The Yankees need to fill the role soon if they hope to make future signing periods worthwhile.

Brian asks: I haven't seen any rumors out there about Framber Valdez, who is probably the best lefty on the market this offseason. Thoughts?

I am beyond a hard "no" on Valdez. His actions in September, during which he very clearly intentionally crossed up his catcher so that he could hit him with a fastball, were beyond unprofessional. His lack of any public concern or remorse following the event and the Astros' PR backpedaling after sealed the deal for me. He could be Nolan Ryan, and I wouldn't want him.

Throwing a mid-90s fastball at an unsuspecting person can harm them terribly, even with protective gear. I was present for such an event, and it's a truly terrible thing to witness. I wouldn't want someone like Valdez anywhere near my team, and I'm glad that it seems like the Yankees don't either (though the Yankees' reasons likely have more to do with money than any altruistic sensibilities).