SSTN Mailbag: Lombard Jr., Cashman Comments, And Spring Watch List!

To me, Spring Training officially starts when there are actual games to watch. After a long, cold winter, that day has finally arrived. I, for one, blasted "Centerfield" as loud as I could manage while my daughter slept in this morning (lazy bum...doesn't she realize the Yankees are back today?!?!?) and am actually excited for this weekend's games.

In case you are wondering why I seem irrationally excited about this weekend's games, the Yankees are throwing two promising young arms right into the fire this Spring. Elmer Rodriguez, the pitching prospect closest to the big leagues in the Yankee system, takes the bump against the Orioles today, while Carlos Lagrange, he of the 102.6 MPH fastball that struck out Aaron Judge on 3 pitches (though the Captain also tattooed a 99 MPH fastball for a homer in his previous at-bat against Lagrange), starts for the Yankees against the Tigers on Saturday afternoon.

While it's important not to read too much into Spring statistics (really, any Spring statistics, at least from a bottom-line perspective), I think we do get a very clear idea about how the team views certain guys from their playing time and opportunities. Last year, the Yankees left Schlittler with the big league group for much longer than expected, signaling that it wasn't just writers like me who had high hopes for the kid. This year, the Yankees are letting Rodriguez and Lagrange get premium starts at the beginning of camp. I'll talk about both of these guys a bit later, but I think it's pretty clear that the Yankees like both of these guys. That gives us a window into the team's thinking, and likely explains why we didn't see a major trade this offseason that would have certainly included one or both of Rodriguez and Lagrange.

I really like both pitchers; clearly the Yankees do too. That's exciting, and that's what Spring Training is all about.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about George Lombard Jr., Brian Cashman's recent comments, and things I'm watching this Spring Training! Let's get at it:

Cary asks: Keep fighting the fight! Also, could you do a piece on George Lombard Jr for us? Is he going to make it and if so, in what capacity? I realize this is a tough question, but do you like the idea of developing him further, or is now the time to trade him, while he remains the Yankees 7th most valuable trade chip. His prospect value plummeted the moment his hit-tool was downgraded.

I'm going to start with this in the SSTN Mailbag, but I think Lombard is deserving of a longer piece, so I'm working on something there as well. Given the Yankees' questions in the middle of the infield and 3B long-term, yes, I think it makes plenty of sense to continue to develop Lombard Jr. in the Yankees' system. The other questions require more of a deep dive.

The short version of Lombard's projection is yes, he's near-certain to play for some period of time at the MLB level. I recognize that assessment falls into the "duh" category, but when there are hit tool questions, the variance for future value is incredibly high. One think that is critical to remember is that the Yankees have been incredibly aggressive with Lombard Jr.'s promotions. Last season, he was one of the youngest players at AA. Some might say that was a poor decision on the Yankees' part to promote him to AA so quickly, but having watched him at A+, it was clear that he really wasn't learning anything there. He has a very advanced approach at the plate for his age, and he was able to out-work pitchers through counts to draw tons of walks and smack middle-middle pitches. Out-maneuvering less advanced pitchers was not going to help Lombard gain any meaningful development at the plate, the place on which his future value is contingent.

Lombard was over-matched at AA for much of the season at the plate despite continuing to show a solid approach and a good eye for laying off spin off of the plate. Lombard struggled for much of the year to adjust his bat path to make ideal contact with pitches at different quadrants of the strike zone, particularly hard fastballs high and tailing offspeed low and away. As the season moved along, Lombard began to make adjustments to get to those pitches, though I think some mechanical cleanup is in order to enable Lombard to punish pitches in his best parts of the strike zone.

Through that lens, while Lombard's numbers were disappointing last season for such a high-end prospect, I don't think we yet have a clear idea of what his hit tool ceiling actually looks like. It's clear that the hit tool is sub-MLB quality now, and I don't expect it to be MLB ready in 2026. However, Lombard has some things working in his favor for real value at the plate. For one, as I mentioned previously, he has a very solid approach at the plate, almost to the point of being atypical for players who have displayed weak hit tools. Secondly, he doesn't have the pitch recognition issues that plague some prospects with even louder tools, such that I don't expect him to be particularly susceptible to spin and offspeed pitches off the plate as he advances. Lastly, there is above-average raw power in his bat, and he has a swing geared towards getting to most of it in games at maturity. This isn't like Anthony Volpe as a prospect, who had very average power with a swing geared to get to every ounce of it in games; Lombard has above-average power with a fundamental swing geared towards contact in multiple parts of the park. Lombard also has a body that looks very likely to continue to fill out in an almost A-Rod like fashion.

Defensively, I think Lombard is a fairly safe bet to stick on the left side of the infield. Many outlets remark on his awkward arm swing when throwing, but in my in-person looks at him, that's been cleaned up to some extent and his throws at 3B and SS (yes, I watched him field both positions on the back fields in Tampa) have above-average pop, even if the effort to reach it is a bit higher than typical. Lombard is very agile with good hands, so I expect him to be a solid shortstop for a few years before eventually sliding to 3B, where he definitely has the requisite reaction timing. Lombard is a good baserunner with above-average foot speed as well. Defensively and on the basepaths, Lombard is a near-finished product.

I am going to strongly disagree with the notion that Lombard's trade value has decreased in the last year. Additionally, I don't think his hit tool has actually been downgraded; public scouting services are all over the map on Lombard's future hit tool, and it is incredibly likely that teams' internal grading is all over the place as well. There are teams who certainly grade Lombard commensurate with at top-20 prospect in all of baseball; there are also probably teams who have him graded closer to the top-75. While I know Cary likes baseballtradevalues.com (and I like it too as a point of reference), I don't take it as anything close to a be-all-end-all rating for trade value. It is merely one algorithm's assessment, and teams take so much more than that into account when assessing trade value. Said another way: Lombard's trade value to one team might very well be different than to another, and I am also sure that teams have differing opinions of his hit tool. Downgrading Lombard's hit tool has been nowhere near universal.

I think Lombard's package of defense, arm, power, plate discipline, and baserunning give him a reasonably high floor as a utility infielder. That's not exciting, but it's a very high floor, as I don't see him as likely to be an outright bust. As Cary notes, I think it will really come down to Lombard's hit tool. If we see real progression at AA this year, and Lombard can tap into game power with his bat, then I feel better projecting Lombard as a regular contributor with potential All-Star upside. If it doesn't progress much, I'm closer to saying he's a utility infielder or 2nd division regular. The book is far from closed on Lombard, and I'd hold onto him right now unless a team blows the Yankees away with a trade offer.

Michael G. asks: You've written in the past that you thought the Yankees haven't used enough of their pitching prospects in the bullpen as a way to get them big league innings before progressing to the rotation. Brian Cashman said in an interview recently that the Yankees might do just that with some of their pitching prospects at various points throughout the year. Who do you think that might be?

I think there are 3 very clear guys who fit that description:

• Elmer Rodriguez

• Carlos Lagrange

• Ben Hess

I can tell you for absolute certain that many of the publicly available scouting reports on Rodriguez are out of date. Rodriguez saw a real bump in velocity (stop me if you've heard this before) in the Yankee system last year, and now lives in the mid-90s, peaking at 98 MPH. Rodriguez's 4-seamer has real ride to it, while his 2-seamer is an absolute bowling ball that is very difficult for hitters to elevate. He doesn't have a knockout secondary offering, but his 55-grade slider would almost certainly gain a half grade out of the bullpen to be a weapon. If Rodriguez lived at 96-98 MPH out of the bullpen with a starter's command and arsenal, he'd be very dangerous out of the bullpen.

Lagrange is the easiest to explain. Lagrange is a fire-breathing dragon who has been up above 103 MPH in games...as a starter...as late as the 5th and 6th innings. It wouldn't shock me at all if Lagrange had another gear to his fastball out of the bullpen, as I don't view even his hardest fastballs as being incredibly high-effort. Both of Lagrange's breaking balls a above-average from a pure stuff perspective, and as long as Lagrange maintains his control gains from last season, you could likely put him in a big league bullpen and watch him succeed in very short order.

Hess is an absolute pitbull on the mound, and after a slow start to last season and some downtime on the IL, he looked fantastic to finish the year. Hess looks even better in camp this year, flashing a 98 MPH fastball with great rise at the top of the zone and a knockout slider. He's really learning how to pitch, so like Rodriguez, I think his future home is in the rotation, but there's little question but that his demeanor and stuff will play out of the bullpen very soon.

I wanted the Yankees to go buy a couple of relievers this offseason. I might have been wrong.

Steven Z. asks: Simple question - what are you looking for this Spring training?

There are some general things I always look for. For hitters, I like to see if anyone has made major mechanical changes that might impact the way they perform when the games start for real. I also look for positive or negative body changes that show up in measurable statistics. For example, everyone talked about Ben Rice showing up with 15 pounds of added muscle last year. I didn't think much of it until the car I was in arriving at Spring Training was almost hit by a 445 foot laser beam off of Rice's bat. Then we saw increased exit velocity readings. I also saw a change in mechanics by Trent Grisham. Both Rice and Grisham had big seasons.

For pitchers, I look for new pitches, altered pitch shapes, new mechanics, or changes to velocity. Sometimes, changes for the worse indicate injury. Changes for the better often times are notable, because it means positive progression is coming.

For more specifics, here's what I'm looking for:

• I want to see a new 2-seam fastball from Ryan Weathers, and I want to see how it plays with his change-up. If it takes, Weathers could be really great.

• Ryan McMahon needs a swing overhaul more than any hitter I've seen play for the Yankees in recent memory. If that happened, McMahon actually has some real raw tools worth working with. It might be too late for a player that age, but I thought that about Cameron Maybin too.

• Can Carlos Lagrange continue to find the plate? If so, can he at least hit quadrants of the strike zone with his fastball? If he can do that, he might stick as a starter.

• Does Austin Wells look healthy? I really think that was the difference in Wells last season.

• How does Dominguez look in LF and batting right-handed? I have no doubt but that both were points of emphasis this offseason.

• What does Aaron Judge's first throw from the outfield look like?