How are we feeling today? It's an honest question now that the early homer-ish hopes that come with the reporting of pitchers and catchers and the beginning of Spring Training has worn off. We've basically moved past the "best shape of their life" stories and are now in the thick of being able to really see what is working and what isn't. Hitters are just at the point where they'll start remembering how to hit big league pitching again, just in time for many pitchers to go through the dreaded Spring "dead arm" period.
I feel some of the excitement that comes with the beginning of Spring Training fading, but I don't think I'll feel desperate for Spring Training to end for another week or two. I understand fully that guys need time to build up slowly for what really is a marathon season. I never went through a season nearly as long as the pros, yet I know that it really took 8-12 weeks of work to get my arm working in even decent shape (and some praying to the baseball gods that weather on the East Coast would be warm to keep my arm loose). So, I understand keeping Spring Training a bit longer than fans surely want.
I feel pretty good about what I've seen so far. The Yankees have a couple of injuries, but nothing that decimates the roster...yet. I am hoping that Carlos Rodon's last outing is more a product of Spring "dead arm," particularly since he came into camp a bit ahead of many of the other starting pitchers. Nick Burdi is making me look smart, firing absolute missiles for fastballs with sliders that are quite literally striking fear in batters, so that's nice. Spencer Jones hasn't swung and missed at a pitch yet this Spring in big league camp, my biggest concern with him as a prospect. Anthony Volpe has a different approach, one that is totally different from what he did in the minors...I'm not sure how I feel about it yet, but I don't mind watching him slash liners to get on-base more. The Yankees have let Austin Wells catch Cole early on, and Cole has publicly praised him, a really good sign...just ask Gary Sanchez what the inverse of that situation would mean. Anthony Rizzo sure looks healthy, and if he's healthy, I believe he can still be a lefty power bat who will get good pitches to belt batting behind Judge. Trent Grisham also looks like he's made some changes...I might need to dig into it further, because what he's changed is intriguing. All-in-all, these are normal Spring stories for a change, nothing upsetting like we've seen the previous 3 Springs. I'll take it.
A quick programming note: there will be no SSTN Mailbag next week. For the first time in entirely too long, I will be taking a couple of days off from my day job, and I won't be able to access my computer with any consistency. Please continue to send questions into the SSTN Mailbag inbox, as I'll likely do a longer Mailbag on 3/22. Thanks for understanding.
As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll answer questions about Peraza's shoulder, the net effect of Boras' strategy with his big free agents this off-season, and look at the results from DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton! Let's get at it:
Mike asks: On a scale of 1-10, how worried are you about Oswald Peraza's shoulder? He's supposed to start playing in games again tomorrow, but it's really hard to trust what the Yankees say about injuries.
Mike wrote this email before yesterday's news that Peraza is being sent for an MRI. Had I answered this question on Monday, I would have said "5," because I also don't trust the Yankees on injuries, but dead arm is also quite common for players at this point in Spring Training.
Obviously, we know a lot more now. Peraza came back on Tuesday and Wednesday in back-to-back games, didn't do anything of note at the plate, and felt like he couldn't put the requisite zip on his throws from SS. That is really not a good sign. It shows that he felt well enough to play on Tuesday, but he has pain, weakness, and trouble recovering from day-to-day. I sympathize, because I know how that feels. It is also rarely a good sign.
What many casual fans likely do not realize is that a "healthy shoulder" is a relative concept for ballplayers. I've said it here many times over the years: throwing is a very unnatural act. Playing ball, particularly when you throw hard with high volume, will lead to shoulder damage in the general sense. A healthy shoulder for someone who has never played ball and a professional ballplayer look very different in an MRI. That's partly why shoulders are so difficult to diagnose, particularly initially. Every guy has structural damage, so is shoulder pain and weakness just temporary inflammation in one of those structural abnormalities, or is it something new? If my left shoulder MRI was compared to that of a normal person, it looks like something between torn string cheese and Swiss...it hurts every which way, yet I can still flick a ball harder than most people can with a full hop. It doesn't mean I can play a baseball game tomorrow, again, partly why this is tricky. Degrees of health are very different for a pro ballplayer.
Given those realities, how worried am I about Peraza now? Mark me down for an "8." At the very least, I see a significant period of downtime to get the shoulder feeling better, and at worst, there's new structural damage. I wouldn't bet on seeing Peraza until mid-May at this point. I really hope I'm wrong.
Alan B. asks: With what Scott Boras was trying to pass along as to how he sees free agency this year, specifically about him not getting a lot of calls during the winter on these guys. It is my opinion that Boras is trying to spin this in a way that he's somehow not at fault for guys taking shorter term deals, complete with opt outs. The way I see it, Boras lets everyone know early what he is looking for when it comes to each of the client and there really is not a lot of wiggle/negotiation room. The only owner out there left he will spend money without a lot of fuss or muss is Arte Moreno, and he's gotten burned too many times, so he doesn't do it anymore either. There are very few true superstars out there that can still name the contract he wants and expect t get it, or pretty close. Don't you think Boras actually refusing to actively negotiate to find ways to get deals done actually perpetuated this off season of non movement even more than the clubs?
I guess the question is: is he refusing to actively negotiate, or is he simply walking away from the table temporarily until he has more leverage? His two biggest clients are pitchers. Remember: PItcher is a Greek word for "breaks often, and often irreparably." At the point at which Monty and Snell have reached in their careers, their goal is to get the most money they can possibly get, period. That's the system, so I'm not going to blame players or their agents for getting the best deal they can get; at the end of the day, it's their prerogative. They hired Boras specifically to get them the most money through whatever means necessary. It takes two to play the game that's going on here. If the Boras guys were that upset about not being in camp, they would either instruct Boras to sign the best deal possible right now (which is clearly what Chapman and Bellinger did with teams with whom they were comfortable on short-term deals), or fire Boras and move on to someone who can get them a better deal. Given that Snell and Monty have retained Boras, they think Boras is doing what is in their best interest.
MLB teams find every way possible to cry poverty and keep costs down. We saw multiple teams step out of the market for free agents this winter because of the implosion of regional TV deals. The market shrinks, demand is lower, but the salary standards for players of a certain caliber remain. Clubs know what the market is, but they also know that long-term deals in free agency rarely work out. That's a tough dichotomy, but one the owners have actively sought through their demands in the CBA: they actively underpay young players through the current system of team control and arbitration; the give-back to players is the overpay that comes on the free agent market. Until you change the economic paradigm, that's how it works.
I don't have a problem with the players waiting it out, nor do I have problem with teams passing until the prices come down. Snell and Montgomery are very good, but flawed players. Monty has pitched the best two seasons of his career, but is likely to regress (just look at how his body has grown since his time in pinstripes...that's not a good recipe for aging, just ask CC Sabathia). Snell is inconsistent, but has great stuff which makes him a CY Young candidate some years...but what happens when his stuff degrades even a little? That said, this is likely both players' last shot at a long-term deal, so they have earned the right to wait it out.
It's a chicken-and-egg contest. I think the clubs and Boras are playing the same game; it's just lasting longer than it typically does. We'll see who wins in the end.
Tim B. asks: The Yankees are counting on Stanton and DJ to be everyday players this year, but neither has done anything at the plate yet this spring. Time to worry, or is it just spring noise?
LeMahieu has smoked a couple of balls right back up the middle that took great plays to snag, or were right back to the pitcher. His bat looks quick, and he's spraying the ball nicely. LeMahieu also looks like he's moving well to me, so I'm not worried at all about DJ yet. I think the hits will start falling when the games count.
Stanton doesn't quite look like he has his timing yet, which was the case all year in 2023 after he came back from the hamstring injury. He's made some mechanical adjustments, so I'm hoping it just takes some more at-bats to solidify those changes to get his timing back. I began the Spring more worried about Stanton anyway, and while he's moving significantly better this Spring, I'm still not sold on his swing changes yet. I'm not totally worried about the lack of results yet, but this upcoming week, it would sure be nice to see him rope a few balls.
