SSTN Mailbag: Rotation, Dominguez, And Gil!

That felt good. It had been a long time since the Yankees swept the Red Sox - 5 seasons ago, in fact. Somehow, it felt even longer. I said before the season began that the Yankees were really competing with the Red Sox and the Blue Jays for the AL East...and thus far, I'm unimpressed by the Yankees' competition.

As I noted before the season began, I didn't have a lot of faith in the Red Sox offense to match their pitching staff, and we saw that reality play out in real time this series. The top of the lineup has some potential to be good, though without enough thump, but it gets ugly fast. The Sox would kill to have Jose Caballero, Austin Wells, and Jazz Chisholm in their lineup. Yankee pitching generally made this series look easy, and that's without Gil or Schlittler showing their best stuff. The Red Sox can pitch (wow, Tolle was impressive last night...it looked like he was throwing 120 MPH those first couple of innings), but if they even get to league average hitting as a team, I'll be surprised.

The Jays have talent, but they are lacking in depth. They've already been hurt by injuries to their rotation, and their 6-8 options are far worse than what the Yankees can trot out. The lineup is "Vladito and hope." I noted multiple times this offseason that I did not expect Okamoto to be a difference maker at 3B. There's still plenty of time for him to turn it around, but thus far, that opinion has also been correct. I don't expect him to come close to replacing Bo Bichette's production, which leaves a huge hole at the top of the Blue Jays' lineup. They can project better performance and health around the diamond and on the mound, but they still don't stack up to a Yankees' team that has still managed to be varying levels of frustrating.

The sky is not falling. The Yankees aren't hitting on all cylinders yet, but to me they still look better than everyone in the AL East, and I think there's reason to believe that there's more in the tank, between even marginally improved performances from the bottom of the lineup and supplementation from the farm. I feel better about the team now than I did two weeks ago, that's for sure.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about the rotation, Jasson Dominguez, and Luis Gil! Let's get at it:

Fuster asks: assuming Fried, Schlittler, Cole and Rodon

who gets to be the 5th starter this season?

who best can serve in that spot

and allow Lagrange to work in relief for 2026?

I don't want to anger the baseball gods by assuming complete health in a month or so, but for the purposes of this question, I'll assume everyone is healthy in late-May. In order to answer that question, I think we have to line up all of the guys that could possibly serve in that role. Here they are:

• Will Warren

• Luis Gil

• Elmer Rodriguez

• Carlos Lagrange

As you note, I expect that the Yankees will shift Lagrange to the bullpen at some point this season to get his electric arm in a position where it can make an immediate impact. That leaves Warren, Gil, and Rodriguez. My sense is that Rodriguez is nipping at Warren's, and particularly Gil's, heels. He has been outstanding at AAA this year, showing a variety of ways that he can get hitters out on any given night. His fastball has gained half a grade over the last year, but he really doesn't blow people away with stuff; he's a pitcher in the truest sense, and I think that gives him a chance to be a really good starting pitcher.

The problem for Rodriguez is that Warren likewise has gained half a grade on his fastball this year. Warren's fastball always had excellent carry, making it jump at the top of the zone, but now he's flashing better velocity, which I'd expect to continue to improve as the weather gets warmer. He's up on average by a half a tick of velocity now, but I think he'll be up more than a full tick by late-May. He's also throwing his incredibly loopy sweeper (a pitch I've never particularly liked) harder, and while it's still his most hittable pitch, it's sharper and performing better against righties than it did last season. He's also getting more comfortable with using his change-up, which continues to be his most under-utilized secondary offering. In short, I think Warren is better this year than I ever expected.

Luis Gil is the low man on the list. We'll talk about him more below, but I just don't think he's a starter despite his shutout performance against the Red Sox this past week. I think it's incredibly telling that the Yankees have kept Rodriguez lined up with Gil's spot in the rotation. For me, it's a two man race between Rodriguez and Warren.

I think Rodriguez is more capable of serving in the bullpen and Warren is more of a known entity. It's close, but if he's still pitching well, I think Warren gets the nod in the 5th spot of the rotation.

The reality of all pitching is that someone will get hurt, and they will likely need all of these guys as the season moves along.

David G. asks: Have you seen Jasson Dominguez hit against lefties down in Scranton so far? He's putting up good numbers. What's changed if anything? What does he need to work on?

Yes, something has changed for Dominguez. I think he recognized that he needed to rely less on timing from his less-used right side as he does hitting left-handed. Late in Spring Training, Dominguez ditched his leg kick batting right-handed and that has carried over into the regular season. The results speak for themselves:

.308/.400/.769, 1 HR, 3 2B, 16.7% Whiff Rate, 95.6 MPH AVG. Exit Velocity, 3 Degree Launch Angle, 58.3% Hard Hit

That's awesome! Dominguez is showing plenty of pop to the outfield, with a concentration of very hard groundballs down the 3B line. Dominguez also smoked a ball to the opposite field against a hard fastball, but he hit it right at the RF. He hasn't seen a ton of velocity, but when he's faced 95+ MPH velocity, he's continued to hit the ball hard. This is clearly progress even compared to his last tour through AAA. This is a situation where a very clear mechanical change was made, and the (very) early statistics prove that it's paying dividends. He needs to keep it up for a bit longer, but Dominguez is doing what he needs to do to get back to NY.

You'll note the incredibly low 3 degree launch angle above. That's the area that Dominguez needs to fix. He hits his share of hard liners, but he's rolling over a ton of hard grounders to the 3B. He's hitting it hard enough that some of those are turning into hits, but that won't last forever. He needs some more barrel feel in the strike zone to make more ideal contact, and that takes reps. I'm hoping it comes sooner than later, because I really believe in his talent.

Michael S. asks: Luis Gil cruised through tonight's start against the Red Sox - is he back?!?!

I wish that Gil was in the process of proving me wrong, but no, I don't think he's back. I think the Red Sox have a truly awful offense right now, and struggled to make solid contact against very hittable stuff. Gil has consistently lost velocity on his fastball since his initial issue with fatigue in August/September of his rookie year, and it's only getting worse. Without a high-octane fastball, Gil is very ordinary as he lacks the command necessary to move his pitches around the edges of the zone. His velocity fell to a new low against the Red Sox on an admittedly cold night.

In Gil's defense, it was cold in Boston, and that could have effected his velocity. He also leaned more heavily on a two-seam fastball, which seemed to generate a ton of groundballs. It (and everything else) got hit very hard, but at least it was all on the ground. He might need to lean on that sinker moving forward.

I think injuries have really diminished Gil's ability to hold velocity over multiple innings. Controversially, I also think Gil's body has gotten significantly thicker since his rookie season. While that's likely been done intentionally to help him hold up over a full season, I think it's cost him some flexibility.

I wouldn't be surprised if Gil can get back to 97-98 MPH out of the bullpen where he knows he can just let it eat, and that might be best for Gil's career. Let him lean on his pure stuff, and I think he'll be a lot better. It was great to see him put together a great start at Fenway, but I don't think it's a sign of things to come.