SSTN Mailbag: Rotation, Judge, Dominguez, Wells, MLB Pipeline Top-30!

OK, I'll take 2 out of 3, even if it was against the Twins, who the Yankees traditionally dominate no matter the circumstance. I am pleasantly surprised to see Boone set his lineups with a bit of urgency; no more waiting for guys to break out of slumps; no more listening to Boone say things like, "I saw some good swings tonight." Boone put out the best lineups the Yankees have to begin each game. Now, he continually made poor decisions with substitutions and bullpen management, but I'll take a baby step.

More importantly, it was nice to feel good watching the team. With all of the doom and gloom around these guys since late-June, it often isn't fun to expect failure and commiserate with other fans about the state of the team. We know what the flaws are. Yankee ownership doesn't see a problem. However, the beauty of baseball is that sometimes, just when you least expect it, something really special happens. I don't trust an Aaron Boone managed team, but I'll hold out hope some magic can still happen.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about next year's rotation, Aaron Judge's injury, Austin Wells, and MLB Pipeline's Updated Yankee Top-30 Prospects! Let's get at it:

Brian S. asks: Just had the thought that by the all star break next year, the Yankees starting rotation could be Fried, Rodon, Cole, Warren, and Shlittler/Gil... That might be the best rotation in the majors if Cole comes back 100%.

If all three guys stay: you only have 2 rotation spots left, who do you give it to: Gil, Warren, and/or Shlittler? Assuming of course that one of them isn't dealt before next year lol.

On paper, yes, that looks like a pretty incredible rotation. Remember, though: this year's rotation looked pretty stacked on paper, though it was a bit thinner. A lot can happen between now and then.

Let's assume for a minute that Cole comes back at 85% of peak Gerrit Cole (let's dream for a minute). The front three of the rotation would be comprised of near-ace quality arms (and it's entirely likely that at least one of them has a great year). The back-half and depth of the rotation is really interesting. Will Warren has pretty much wrapped up a rotation spot next year, unless a surprising trade occurs, so he's the 4th starter. The 5th starter is where things get interesting. Schlittler and Gil are around; I wouldn't be shocked if Clarke Schmidt is an option next year, given that his UCL procedure wasn't quite as involved as standard Tommy John; and you have multiple pitching prospects who should be knocking on the door, like Carlos Lagrange, Brendan Beck, Chase Hampton (if he ever gets healthy), and Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz.

It almost doesn't matter who starts the season in the last spot of the rotation. I would bet that there will be a cycle of guys floating through the 5th spot and giving some of the other starters a breather throughout the year. As disappointing as this summer has been, it's also equally clear that better times are ahead for the Yankee rotation.

Cary asks: Should Judge be Shut Down? What's going on with his injury and the way the Yankees are handling him?

I am of the opinion that yes, Judge should be shut down. It is fairly clear to me that he is far beneath 100%, and though he has occasionally swung hard at balls since he's returned from his short IL stint, the majority of his swings are noticeably slower than his standard swing. I noted this in a game recap a few days ago, but Judge's swings on balls in play averaged barely 70 MPH; that is indicative of a power hitter who just isn't coming around the same way consistently.

Flexor tendon injuries can be very scary! They completely diminish hand strength and can do so permanently if the injury isn't treated properly. Judge's grip strength is almost certainly off the charts, and that's part of what makes him such an effective hitter. Without it, as we've seen, he's far more ordinary at the plate.

Even if I'm overly cautious, I don't think Judge should have returned this quickly, and we have multiple statistical measures to cite that show that Judge isn't the same guy right now. I'm not a fan of risking damage to the franchise cornerstone.

However, if the Yankees are really committed to trying to win a ring this year, they need Judge, even just for morale. I wouldn't play Judge right now, but maybe I'm too cautious.

Jim K. asks: What are your thoughts on sitting Dominguez for multiple games in a row? Is he falling out of favor and what does this mean for his development?

The Yankees are in the heat of a playoff race. The time to worry about player development was over in late June when the team started struggling. Dominguez very clearly has a lot of talent, but he's struggling to put all of the pieces together in more than flashes. Dominguez is an excellent baserunner, and he makes enough contact, but much of it is suboptimal, which is severely depressing his power numbers despite his consistent hard-hit rate. Additionally, we know that while Dominguez has improved in LF, he is very clearly the weakest defender in the outfield not named Giancarlo Stanton.

I love Dominguez, and I haven't soured on him at all long-term. I still believe he could be part of the solution, and I think his time will come, possibly this season. Sometimes a breather to help the game slow back down is a really good thing.

At the end of the day, development at the big league level necessarily takes a back seat to winning, particularly right now when the team has been struggling. I was all for playing Dominguez a ton early in the season when the team was winning games in bunches; the situation has changed.

Alan B. asks: Andy, two quick questions: How healthy do you believe Austin Wells really is? & Your thoughts on the new Top 30 list that MLB Pipeline put out on Monday.

I've been on record as saying that I don't think Austin Wells has been healthy since the second to last game of Spring Training. Austin Wells has gotten really beat up behind the plate this year, noticeably so. I don't remember who wrote the piece, but earlier this year, a sports journalist detailed all of the work Austin Wells has to do after games just to be able to recover for the next day. It struck me that Wells needed all of that treatment, not that it's abnormal for catchers to take their licks, but because Wells' routine seemed excessive for someone who is supposedly healthy.

We also know that Wells has struggled mightily against breaking balls, and I think that speaks more to approach than injuries. Sadly, I think we have a confluence of factors causing Wells to struggle. He's beat up, but he's also tanked his previously excellent approach at the plate. That troubles me more than the injuries. Giving Wells a breather might help both problems. The reality is that the Yankees would be a much stronger team if Wells wakes up and can play up to his potential (even the low-OBP, high-power version of Wells from May/June).

As for the Top-30 from MLB Pipeline, I have it on record that MLB Pipeline is far from my favorite list for prospects out there, though I respect the write-ups they do for individual players. The top 4 has the right players, but in the wrong order; the back half of the list has a handful (or two) of guys that I don't think belong on a top prospect list at all; and there's one or two prospects ranked entirely too low.

More specifically, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz might make my top-3 if I were making this list. I also think that Brendan Jones needs a lot more attention; he's clearly a top-10 prospect in the system.