SSTN Mailbag: Sell High, Oswaldo, And GLJ (Again)!

The Baseball Gods have a strange sense of humor sometimes. Cade Winquest never got into a game as the last reliever out of the bullpen in the season's opening weeks. Immediately upon being given back to the Cardinals organization, the Yankees proceeded to desperately need the last man in the bullpen every night for a week, cycling through relievers who were certainly lower on the depth chart. Randall Grichuk underperformed, but was roughly what we expected him to be at this stage of his career. Jasson Dominguez showed real improvement down at AAA and basically did everything he needed to do to earn a call-up. The Yankees released Grichuk. Almost immediately, Dominguez got plunked on the elbow and now needs further testing.

This serendipitous series of events is almost laughable, if not for the fact that each of these situations is a net negative for the Yankees. However, I view these events, combined with the decision to send a struggling Luis Gil down to the minors, in a different light. The Yankees' loudest critics have, often correctly, lambasted the relatively passive nature of the Yankee front office with regards to roster moves. Veterans are almost always given incredibly long runways to straighten themselves out, even once it's clear that their skills have eroded beyond repair; favored young players get an absurd number of chances to prove their worth; and strong upper-level prospects get held back in favor of veterans before being cast aside in trades. That methodology overtly displays a lack of urgency. While I don't always agree with this viewpoint, it certainly had merit in numerous notable situations over the years.

This year's roster decisions show a different methodology, one that shows significantly more urgency. I think that bodes well as the Yankees hunt for a championship, particularly in a year where it seems like the Yankees can generate a healthy lead in the AL.

For those interested, I gave a quick scouting report on Elmer Rodriguez prior to his first start here, and then analyzed that first start here. Both are worth reading, since I think Rodriguez is going to be around for a while.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll discuss the idea of selling high on Spencer Jones, Oswaldo Cabrera's early season performance in AAA, and revisit GLJ now that he's been called up to AAA. Let's get at it:

Vincent I. asks: The Yankees seem set up in the outfield over the next couple of years now that Dominguez looks like he's figuring it out in AAA [note: this question came in before Dominguez's call-up]. Jones is having another homer parade for Scranton. Question: does it make sense to sell high on Jones to get something on the big league club?

I've seen a lot of comments in the Yankee Universe about the idea of "selling high" on Jones, and I think this idea is something of a misnomer. Yes, Jones is hitting for tons of power down in AAA. We know that Jones has top-of-the-scale raw power, with a good defensive profile, a good arm, and an ability to run the bases well. If you think about those tools without actually putting them in context, he sounds like a slam dunk prospect.

The hit tool issues aren't a secret, and nothing about his AAA performance has indicated a change there. Jones' overall whiff rate on all pitches is among the worst in the Majors and his in-zone whiff rate is even worse. Take an even more granular look, and Jones whiffs on more than 40% of the fastballs he faces. Zoom in further, and he has proven to be basically incapable of catching up to high, hard fastballs in the strike zone. Think for a minute about big league pitching. How do you think that will play in the Majors? To be fair, Jones has such insane power that he might just manage to be valuable in spite of this gaping hole in his game.

Teams are not stupid. This has been the hole in Jones' game since the day he was drafted due to his huge frame and levers. It might not be something that any hitting instructor can fix without destroying the things Jones does well at the plate. Jones has worked incredibly hard to close the gaps in his swing over the years, and while he's managed to tap into some of his raw power in games, the holes have only closed so much. Every team knows these holes exist, regardless of what the bottom-line numbers say at AAA.

Trade value isn't a league-wide stat in the way batting average is; it varies by team philosophy, internal metrics, and the variability of scouting opinions throughout the league. Jones is a polarizing player, and opinions based on his very public tools and shortcomings. Jones certainly has his supporters both in the Yankees' front office and in some front offices around the league. I am sure there are teams that would be a hard "no" on acquiring Jones. Others certainly see the potential, but understand the massive risks associated with acquiring Jones. Regardless of everything Jones brings to the table, the hit tool risk necessarily means that the return in any trade will certainly be less than the overall sum of his other tools.

Again, this hasn't changed at all in quite some time, and for that reason, I would bet that Jones' trade value has been relatively static over 2 years inside of front offices. In fact, you could argue that the peak of Jones' value was soon after the Yankees drafted him, when he was entirely raw tools without any statistical assessment of his ability to make contact in pro ball.

For these reasons, there is no such thing as selling high on Jones. He has value, and there may come a time when it makes sense to make a deal, but without any change to his ability to make contact, opinions league-wide aren't changing.

Brian S. asks: What's going on with Oswaldo Cabrera? His surface numbers at AAA are ugly, but is there anything under the surface that makes you think he'll be back soon? He was one of my favorites.

Mine too! Oswaldo Cabrera is a player I've loved since he hit A-ball. I love the way he plays the game and carries himself, and that transcends raw talent and skills. I just like how he goes about his business and how hard he plays all the time.

Sadly, I think Cabrera is still trying to get his legs under him after that traumatic leg injury last season. He's not driving the ball at all, his range seems diminished, and he is struggling to lift the ball at all even when he does make contact. Were Cabrera showing any signs of life, I think he would have been called up this week, not Schuemann.

I really wish I had better news, but I think it will be a long time before we see 'Waldo again, if ever, in pinstripes. I really hope I'm wrong about that.

Steven asks: Lombard got the call to AAA before the end of April. Is it officially GLJ-watch season? How long before he's playing SS/3B for the Yankees.

As I've noted multiple times this year, the Yankees (and others) use AAA as short-term finishing school due to the dilution of competition at the level compared to previous decades. GLJ is absolutely going to have to earn a spot through performance, but I would assume the Yankees believe he's up to the task.

My guess? I think he's going to get 200-300 plate appearances to prove himself at AAA, unless he looks incredible right out of the gate. That puts McMahon on-notice to start performing at better than replacement level by early summer. I think that puts GLJ on a collision course with his big league debut sometime between the All-Star break and early August.

Defensively, I think GLJ is ready now, and he's definitely an asset on the basepaths. Those two factors alone likely make him more valuable than McMahon if he can even tread water offensively. I see some really good development from GLJ's swing, so I think that even with a rough adjustment period, he's going to be a good player in the Majors. Look for him to split time between SS and 3B at AAA, and I expect him to spend time at both positions in the Majors this year.

Give GLJ credit; after last season, I was hoping he'd get time to feel good at AA before getting the call, but he showed that he was playing well above that level through just one month. Let's see if he can get off to a similarly hot start at AAA.