Stop me if you've heard me say this before: it's been a frustrating week to be a Yankee fan. While the Yankees started off the season scorching hot on offense, it feels like we've watched stretches of games where the 2023 Yankees come back out to wave their bats helplessly at passing baseballs for 8-9 innings. That's the easy way to evaluate the Yankees' offensive performance this season: it's 2023 all over again.
The reality is somewhat more nuanced, however. EJ Fagan's recent post about umpires noted that the league average batting line this season is .240/.314/.382, with a 23% K% and a 9% BB%. After last night's series finale loss to Oakland (in which the Yankees scored just 1 run), the Yankee team batting line stands at .239/.329/.377, 21.1% K%, 11.2% BB, which in raw terms means that they are a slightly above average offense, buoyed primarily by their solid plate discipline and excellent on-base percentage. It's also important to note that the team that didn't make a lot of contact last season has a roughly league-average batting average. So where's the problem?
For all many have screamed that the Yankees' offense was too homer dependent since 2017, the Yankees simply aren't hitting for enough power to take their offense to the next level. Pitchers are simply too good in the modern game to get by on contact and plate discipline alone. The team has to get to a place where they are at least somewhat above-average in the power department.
The good news is that the Yankees haven't yet gotten significant power contributions from 3/5 of the bats the lineup depends on in that department as Judge, Rizzo, and Torres haven't taken off yet (though Rizzo has popped two homers in recent days). If the glass is half full, we could say a lot more power is on the way with some basic regression to the mean. If the glass is half empty, I'm not sure where the rest of the offense is coming from. I tend to believe that the glass is half full. For now, I largely consider recent offensive struggles to be the Baseball Gods' over-correction to the Yankees' incredibly hot start. Now, let's hope things level back out.
As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Soto's next contract, revisit Judge and Torres' struggles, and find some acquisition targets to help the Yankees! Let's get at it:
Jeffrey C. asks: What would it take to sign Juan Soto before he reaches free agency? If not, do you think the Yankees ultimately sign him? It seems like he genuinely enjoys being a Yankee. Does that count for anything or will he only go after the money?
Unless something catastrophic happens to Juan Soto or baseball's financial structure this season, I think it is reasonably clear that Juan Soto will become the highest paid player in the league on both an annual basis and in terms of total guarantee. I have said it before on this site, but I think it bears repeating: I knew that Juan Soto was one of the best players in the game prior to his arrival in pinstripes, but watching him play everyday for the team, I can't help but think this is how Red Sox fans felt watching Ted Williams while he played. There is a confident swagger and ease with which Soto comports himself at the plate that is frankly unnerving. His swing decisions and eye are second to none in all of baseball, and I struggle to understand how anyone gets him out. Before this season, I said without hesitation that Aaron Judge was a more valuable hitter than Juan Soto. Aaron Judge, even in the midst of a slump, remains an incredible player (I think), but now...I might have to give the nod to Juan Soto having watched him everyday.
Juan Soto's agent, Scott Boras, obviously has egg all over his face after he spectacularly failed his most famous free agent clients this off-season, but we also know that likely means he likely realizes he needs to play the Soto situation "right," and get a publicity win. If Boras' goal is to maximize that contract value, signing an extension with the Yankees almost certainly won't cut it, no matter how much he enjoys playing for the Yankees. Juan Soto reportedly turned down a $440 million extension with the Nationals, something for which he was criticized at the time, though there's little question but that the decision will pay off now. Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million deal that is rich with deferrals, bringing the AAV to roughly $46 million. Soto is also just 25; I foresee that the contract will run a minimum of 13 years.
Using back of the napkin math, a 13 year deal that makes Soto the highest paid player in the game on an annual basis (let's make nice, round numbers and say $50 million AAV) would give us a 13-year, $650 million offer. Maybe my read on the market is off, but I think an offer like that just gets you in the door to negotiate with Soto. I have a hunch that, in an effort to generate headlines, Boras will shoot for both the AAV record and the total contract value record. If Soto keeps playing like he has in April, Boras might just get his wish. As staggering as that money is, I hope the Yankees are the team that wins the bidding war.
David asks: You said that it was worth revisiting Torres at the end of April and here we are, but I'll ask about Judge too. How worried are you now about both players?
I did say that it was worth revisiting Torres' performance at the end of April a couple of weeks ago...and it hasn't gotten any better. An empty .202 batting average with high numbers of strikeouts, even while drawing a fair amount of walks, won't cut it. More critically, Torres just isn't barreling baseballs anymore, and the problem dates back to last September.
Torres' bottom-line exit velocity is fine and roughly in-line with previous norms, but he's often either popping the ball up or beating it into the ground. Even worse, Torres' swing decisions are good, as his 19.3% Chase Rate is in the 92nd percentile in all of baseball. Torres is just missing when he gets pitches to hit. He's swinging and missing on 30.6% of swings, which is in the 23rd percentile in MLB; his zone contact rate is just 73%, a steep fall from his career norms.
Taking even a step deeper, we can see Torres' struggles on a pitch-type basis. Gleyber has been awful against breaking balls and off-speed pitches alike, though Gleyber really just treads water against such pitches, generally. Torres has been a valuable player because of his ability to hit fastballs, and he's just not doing it with authority this year. His wOBA is just .305 against fastballs, and the peripherals suggest that he's not getting particularly unlucky in that department. Even more troublesome is his 33.1% whiff rate against fastballs, which is his worst whiff rate against any pitch type.
One of two things is happening here. Either A.) Gleyber Torres is entering a weirdly early decline phase, or B.) A mechanical or timing issue is keeping him from making an impact against fastballs. I'd bet on B, but right now, I'm worried by how hopeless he looks against even run of the mill fastballs.
As for Judge, I think the talent remains, and his timing looks significantly closer the last few games. He had 3 hits, with a double and a homer in the Oakland series. My only real concern is with whether or not Judge is actually healthy. He's been solid in CF, but when I watch him run the bases, he doesn't look smooth running like he used to. I'd put my level of concern at a 4/10. I think the truncated Spring Training and the late injury probably has more to do with his slow start than anything else, but I'm still concerned about the toe.
Joe B. asks: What positions do you think the Yankees need most help at and who do you think will be available to help on the trade market?
It's still a bit early to really know who will be available, but my priority list would be:
3B
Bullpen
1B
Starting Pitching
Many of you know that I thought the Yankees were a strong fit for Matt Chapman coming into this year, and as much as I love Oswaldo Cabrera, I think it remains clear that 3B is a weakness on this team, and I don't expect DJ LeMahieu to be a significant factor this season as he battles the foot injury.
The bullpen is an obvious question mark; I still think that one or two of the injured relievers can make an impact this year, as can one of the kids, but finding relief help at the deadline should be doable.
I am worried about Anthony Rizzo; he looks like a guy whose reaction timing and skills have diminished. I keep hoping he bounces back in the coming weeks, but I'm becoming more skeptical by the week. Hopefully he turns it around and this is a moot point.
I list starting pitching because every team could use starting pitching; when a good one shakes free, go for it.
As far as specifics, I'm not sure I have many right now; I already talked about the Marlins as a trade partner, with Arraez and any number of pitchers as obvious target. A somewhat fun one to think about: the Astros are terrible this year...what if they remain really bad and do some form of modest sell-off? Would Verlander, some of their relievers, or Alex Bregman be available? It would be a bit Twilight Zone to see certain members of that Astros team in pinstripes, but stranger things have happened.
