SSTN Mailbag: SP Workload, AzFL, And The Offseason!

I'm going to take a deep breath before I say this: I told you so. There, I said it. I have been harping all year on the idea that Anthony Volpe has been hurt badly enough to severely impact his effectiveness on the field. I have noted on numerous occasions the stark before-and-after splits for Volpe up to May 3rd and after, the day on which Volpe came up writhing after diving for a ball and feeling a pop in his left shoulder. Through May 3rd, Volpe was batting .233/.326/.442, showing solid plate discipline and pop, with steady defense. His performance since that date has been scary: .197/.248/.378. Most of the positive performance during that latest stretch (without which, that triple-slash line would be significantly uglier...possibly in Peraza territory) occurred coming out of the All-Star break, when Volpe had a cortisone shot to decrease inflammation around the shoulder. To compensate for the left shoulder, Volpe's mechanics have shifted constantly both at the plate and in the field, and his plate discipline has disappeared as he's clearly thinking about how best to protect his shoulder when he swings a bat. Despite these clear facts and obvious struggles due to injury, Anthony Volpe is 3rd on the team in plate appearances and first on the team in innings played in the field. We have seen very clear evidence that an injured Anthony Volpe is not a Major League player.

What the Yankees have done here is unconscionable and as stupid as it gets. The Yankees have managed injuries horribly for a decade now, and it's costing them both wins and potentially a SS. How much faith do you have in the way Aaron Judge, the franchise cornerstone, is being managed? Do you think Judge is healthy? Even in a two-homer game last night, Judge was very clearly pulling his injured hand/forearm off of the bat before he even made contact with the baseball on his first homer. Yeah, that sure seems like something a healthy power hitter does. Judge's throws since returning to the outfield have ranged from 55-81 MPH...that doesn't sound like the guy who routinely throws 90+ MPH from the outfield, even at cruising velocity.

This methodology falls on the entire organization. Playing Volpe through an injury that has clearly made him a sub-MLB caliber player might have ruined him. There were doubts about Volpe prior to the injury (though I truly believed he had taken significant steps forward); add a shoulder that has sustained far more damage than necessary to that package, and I'm not sure he ever comes back to be a viable starter, even more so if the injury requires surgery. For evidence of how labrum surgery can impact a young career, lookup Greg Bird sometime.

How about Judge? The Yankees have clearly pushed Judge before he was ready, and they are playing with fire. The last time they did this was with Aaron Hicks, a fine ballplayer (flawed, but quite good, despite criticism to the contrary), whose flexor strain turned into a UCL tear that required surgery. He was never the same. Aaron Hicks is not the same caliber of Aaron as Judge, but you get the point.

The Yankees are unnecessarily playing with fire as an organization. I'm sure both Volpe and Judge have stumped hard to play. It's the Yankees' jobs to protect the players from themselves and protect their long-term assets for their own good. I already didn't give the Yankees the benefit of the doubt on injury management; Volpe and Judge represent malpractice.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll discuss managing starting pitcher workloads, the Arizona Fall League, and offseason priorities! Let's get at it:

Brian S. asks: I am onboard with a lot of the ways modern teams manage their pitchers. I get that strikeouts and power pitching help performance more than showing finesse and throwing 300 innings. I also know teams are trying to keep young pitchers healthy. But the Yankees just pulled Will Warren after 6 innings of a game in which he didn't throw a ton of pitches and got outs. The bullpen imploded, as it always seems to lately. I don't get pulling Warren just because the stats say he can't face a lineup the 3rd time through. Do you agree with this and if so, why?

This is a fantastic question, and one that I'm sure a lot of fans are asking across baseball right now.

Teams are using a vast array of methods to gauge fatigue of which most fans are unaware. Teams measure all kinds of biomechanical markers now to ensure that they don't push pitchers too far, given the epidemic of pitching injuries. The Yankees are at the forefront of teams using this methodology to ensure they spot when pitchers are showing signs of dangerous fatigue. Just from the indicators we have publicly available through Statcast, it was obvious that Warren had reached that point. I'm sure the Yankees had even more definitive evidence available to them in the dugout.

Here's the publicly available information I've got, and I'll share it. Here was Warren's numbers and arm angles through the first 4 innings of his appearance:

That's pretty excellent! Warren was generating whiffs, and his release points/arm angles all matched their averages. Here is Warren in innings 5 and 6:

His walk rate went up, his whiff rate was trending way down, and while his average arm angles don't indicate a ton on average, the holistic look of his specific release points tell a different story. There was a lot more variance to his high and low releases on all pitches, indicating that his arm was tired.

As we know, the Yankees do a terrible job of protecting their own players, but I think there was good evidence that Warren had hit a point of fatigue. I would love to see starting pitchers stretch back out to 7+ innings per start more regularly, but I think we're going to need to wait another 7-10 years to get the kids who have been managed properly at a young age in terms of pitch limits before professional teams will be able to build up arms to throw that kind of volume again.

The Yankees were due for a blowout like this. They've been on a tear, and really hadn't produced a clunker like this in over a month. I'm shocked by how poorly Cruz and Leiter performed (and I'm not sure how many times I've ever seen 2 pitchers come in consecutively and not get a single out in a pro ballgame), but file this one under, "That's baseball, Suzyn."

Alan B. asks: Andy: I know 2 of the position players I want to send to the AFL are Roderick Arias (it's time to see if the Yankees are stalling him, and a position change), and Omar Martinez (catching most days in High A to barely catching in AAA with a quick pass thru AA due to the trade deadline), but with Dax Kilby ('25 #1 pick) having gone 24-68 with being 16 for 17 in SBs, do I dare suggest to send him to the AFL. Reason: the other picks they sent to Hudson Valley, all need to start 2026 in Tampa without a scorching hot Spring.

For reference, AzFL rosters were just announced, and none of the players Alan wanted to see are on the list. Arias is nearly a non-prospect at this point and Omar Martinez is an org guy picking up innings at catcher wherever he's needed due to the thinning of the catching herd at the trade deadline. Kilby is an interesting case, though.

I would not send a guy as young as Kilby to the AzFL to just flail away at pitching that is significantly older than he is. Kilby showed that he was a much better prospects than many publicly available prospect outlets credited him with, and numerous writers from those publications, to their credit, have noted that they see a much better player than they initially graded due to limited looks prior to the draft. Writers from Baseball America noted that had they seen more of him, he would have received a fringe-first round ranking from the outlet, a nice grab for the Yankees where they drafted him in the 2nd round.

Kilby showed some really good baseball senses and a feel to make contact with the baseball. Those are real pluses to add to a good arm, very good speed, and solid hands. However, there are clear holes in his swing that need addressing. For Kilby's development, I think he's best served taking the offseason to get stronger and work to improve his bat path and swing base rather than playing the equivalent of showcase games in Arizona for a month. Kilby's groundball rate is high, and he has enough swing speed and feel for contact to do more damage if he can turn hard grounders into line drives.

Given the watered down pitching circuit that pitches out in the AzFL, I think there's more value for Kilby if he puts in work away from the field this offseason.

Yankeerudy asks: Concerning the looming offseason, what areas do you see as the primary targets for Cash & co to focus on, and which potential trade targets/free agents should be in their sights?

This is going to be a very interesting offseason, and I'm not sure which way the Yankees will go, but I have a very negative supposition that has creeped into my mind. When I look preliminarily at the current cash outlay the Yankees have for next season, I see the possibility for the Yankees to dip beneath the first luxury tax tier for the first time in a long time. We already saw the Yankees cut payroll following a World Series berth, and I fully expect that the Steinbrenner-led ownership group will again slash payroll in an attempt to reset their tax rate. That will significantly hinder Brian Cashman's ability to find upgrades on the free agent market.

If it were up to me, I would make an attempt to re-sign one of Bellinger or Grisham to a deal of 5 years or less. Grisham can certainly be had for a 3-4 year deal; I'm not nearly as sure about Bellinger. However, it also wouldn't shock me if the Yankees stay away from both guys in their pursuit to lower payroll.

The Yankees very clearly need at least one, maybe two relievers who do not fit the low-mid 90s/change-up/splitter mode that they've been prone to acquire. They need at least one hard thrower with a breaking ball, and I'd argue that they need two who fit that mold. The bullpen is the biggest hole on the roster, and it needs to be covered. That would be my priority, with locking up one of Grisham or Bellinger a close second.

As far as free agent targets, I'd look seriously at MIchael Kopech, Kyle Finnegan, and Gregory Soto are the types of pitchers I think will be available at decent rates.