SSTN Mailbag: Switch Hitting, Rice, And Schmidt!

We all feel better after a 4-game winning streak, right?!? Attitudes were beginning to get a little sour around here, rightly so, last week. I don't think the Royals are a great team by any stretch of the imagination, but they do pitch well, and the Yankees' offense continued to score runs. I do not think that the offense is running on all cylinders yet, but the team continues to score runs at a consistently high rate. It still is an offense that is prone to strikeouts, but contributions come throughout the lineup, something that was rarely true for at least the last couple of seasons.

I expected this offense to be good; the Yanks just need the pitching to tread water until reinforcements are available. I predicted that the staff could do that, and by wins and losses, it has, though the rotation has left plenty to be desired behind Fried. Schmidt staying healthy combined with a Rodon that pitches a full start without his random 2-4 batter lapses would go a long way towards stabilizing the rotation effectively behind Max Fried. It's getting close...I think this team is primed for a run if just a couple more pieces click.

Before we jump into the Mailbag, I just want to wish all of you a Happy Easter and Passover to those that celebrate. For those of us in the tri-state area, it looks like the weather might actually cooperate for a change, so hopefully you get to enjoy a little time outside for the first time in a while.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about switch hitting, Ben Rice, and Schmidt's first start of the season! Let's get at it:

Brian asks: Baseball history is filled with a host of guys who were proficient switch hitters. I don't know what the numbers say, but it seems like fewer guys than ever are switch hitting at the Major League level. More interestingly to me, it seems that a lot of guys really struggle from one side or the other even if they are switch hitters. The Yankees employ a couple of guys who match that description: Waldo and the Martian. The idea of switch hitting is to make it so that the pitcher never has the platoon advantage, yet we talk about these guys like they can't hit left handed pitching. Why do so many guys struggle with switch hitting and is there something teams can do to prepare these guys better?

I think this is a fantastic question and it's one that requires a nuanced answer because no two hitters are alike. I don't have specific numbers (if one of my readers is able to pinpoint something, please let me know!), but it is clear that the number of switch hitters in the game has diminished over the last decade or two. I haven't really seen a ton of discussion about switch hitting in recent months, but I have my own theories about what's happening with switch hitting in baseball.

Firstly, we have to acknowledge the obvious: pitching is leaps and bounds harder to hit now than it was even 10 years ago. That's doubly true when we compare it to pitching 30 years ago. Average fastball velocity (I include 4-seamers and sinkers in my evaluation) is up to roughly 94 MPH this year and last; that number sat at just 91.4 MPH in 2008. Along with that significant upward trend in velocity, pitchers have much more technology at their disposal, which allows them to specifically curate their arsenal to be as unhittable as possible, with more break, spin, and velocity than at any time in baseball history. The baseball is just that much harder to hit now compared to past decades. Evaluation of hitting techniques and mechanics is years behind where pitching is, making hitters' jobs that much harder, and it's become a running joke in baseball circles. In fact, this question made me think of a video making fun of this exact dynamic:

This is obviously exaggerated somewhat, but you get the idea. It takes an inordinate amount of work to be able to hit the absolutely insane pitches that pitchers throw at the Major League level. We talk about the non-competitive nature of the stuff that guys like Carlos Carrasco or Marcus Stroman throw, but those guys would have had roughly average stuff 15 years ago. The bar is so much higher now than it was in years' past. We can talk about pitching performance as it relates to throwing versus pitching, etc., but the baseball is absolutely harder to hit.

We've now established that hitters have to work that much harder to keep up with the stuff pitchers throw now. Now, imagine if you had to double that work? Switch hitters have to maintain two separate swings, often with separate disparate mechanics. Add in the fact that it's almost impossible to get an equivalent number of swings from both sides of the plate in game situations in the minors prior to initial call-up, and you can see why switch-hitters have an uphill climb. In fact, there's a hidden disadvantage as well: if the hitter decides to ditch switch-hitting, they now have never seen good pitching when they have the platoon disadvantage.

This phenomenon describes what Oswaldo Cabrera is going through perfectly. Waldo is a perfectly acceptable hitter from the left-side against right-handed pitching. He's gotten so few reps batting right-handed against left-handed pitching, a side from which his hitting was fringy as a big leaguer anyway, that he might not be up to the task from that side of the plate. He also has a miniscule number of reps batting as a lefty against left-handed pitching, so now he's almost a platoon-only player.

Dominguez is in a different category. He was more than ready as a hitter from the left side despite the fact that he probably needed another 300-500 plate appearances as a right-handed hitter to be ready for big league lefties. The team needs him, and he's ready otherwise, so he's up on the big league roster. The Yankees need to let him go through growing pains from that side of the plate while getting good reps so that he continues to develop. Dominguez has a special skillset, and it's unwise to write him off as a righty hitter yet.

The reality is that switch hitting has never been harder, and it's really on the player to put in an inordinate amount of time and effort to make it work on the world's biggest stage. With today's stuff, that's really the only answer, in addition to having really special innate talent.

Michael G. asks: If Rice keeps hitting, what do you do when Stanton finally gets healthy? Can't bench goldschmidt or wells. Can't really put Stanton in the outfield.

Unfortunately, these issues have a way of working themselves out. The Yankees have been incredibly cagey about Stanton's rehab process. In fact, Stanton has been avoiding shaking hands for fear of aggravating his elbow/forearm injury (if this sounds ridiculous, think again; with the tears I have to my flexor tendon in my left forearm, I can't even grip hard enough to pick up my laptop backpack). That doesn't sound like a guy who is 1-2 months away from playing MLB games to me.

I really, really want to believe that Rice is for real. I believed in his profile as a prospect, but I also didn't expect him to be this dominant early on, and my modest prediction for his performance reflected as much. I think I might have been a hair conservative with Rice's projection, but I'll also note a couple of things I'm watching. He's shown power against left-handed pitching, but he's struggled overall with the platoon disadvantage, and he was nearly unplayable in those situations throughout his minor league career. He may be a platoon hitter, though at least it's from the strong side. Additionally, I still think he struggles to recognize off-speed pitches, and he didn't see a lot of good off-speed stuff in the minors. Pitchers are going to stop giving him fastballs in the zone at some point, and it will be very interesting to see how he responds.

The other thing I'm watching for is Goldschmidt's health and performance. Goldy has been quite good so far, but much of his offensive performance so far as been fueled by BABIP, and he hasn't shown significant power yet. Goldy struggled against right-handed pitching last season, and it wouldn't be a shock if he came back to Earth against righties again. Additionally, Goldy has had some nagging injuries in recent years; he will likely miss at least a little time eventually.

Once Stanton returns, I think Rice will give both Goldy and Stanton days off, and when one inevitably gets hurt, Rice will get his fair share of plate appearances. Given Stanton's current status, I don't think we need to worry about this until late-June, at the earliest.

Steven M. asks: How did Schmidt look to you when he came back?

He looks like a guy who still isn't all the way back, but he's still no worse than the Yankees' third best starter. Schmidt clearly didn't have his best slider, as the pitch often backed up, and he really struggled to command the pitch. He also threw a mix of dominant knuckle-curves and 55-footers. Otherwise? I thought his sinker looked sharp, and he located it reasonably well. His stuff at its best was nearly overpowering against an admittedly bad lineup.

To me, the risk with Schmidt is always injury. His delivery also has a lot of moving parts and is high effort, so I always worry about Schmidt's ability to repeat it well enough to get through a batting order 3 times. If he can manage those two concerns, he'll be a strong, stabilizing addition to the rotation. His stuff is clearly good enough already, even as he sharpens his secondary stuff to in-season form.