SSTN Mailbag: Trade Target, Prospect Talk, And 2nd Half Predictions!

Baseball's back! Yes, I know that we just had the MLB Draft, Futures Game, Home Run Derby, and the All-Star Game, but to be honest, I'm not a big fan of watching any of those events live. There was a time when I watched the Futures Game and the Home Run Derby, but the formats have largely lost me.

Where does that leave a baseball rat like myself in the middle of summer? Missing real baseball. If that's not a sign that baseball needs to re-shape their mid-summer classic, I don't know what is.

Before I sound too pessimistic, I did enjoy watching some of the player antics and interviews that came out of All-Star week. If you haven't seen it, watch Justin Verlander's interview with Big Papi and Derek Jeter - it was fantastic, and Verlander came off really well. To hold a carrot in front of your face, Verlander told a fantastic story about asking Jeter for game-used gear during his last season. It's worth watching.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll discuss an interesting trade target, talk about some prospects, and provide some 2nd half predictions! Let's get at it:

Michael G. asks: The reds seem to be falling out of the race.

Would Stephenson make some sense?

He's a free agent at year end and healthy.

What would the cost be?

Tyler Stephenson is someone I've always liked from afar. He is reasonably athletic for his size and position, and I've always really liked the bat. There's plenty of pop there, he makes consistently good swing decisions, and while the bottom-line offensive numbers aren't great this season, they're way better than what the Yankees have gotten from their catchers this season and the underlying numbers are very close to his career numbers, indicating that Stephenson is likely to hit better as the season goes along. He also bats right-handed, making him a really useful partner alongside Austin Wells.

The downside is that Stephenson is a very poor defensive catcher. My eyes have always told me that he's rough back there, and I was hoping a cursory look at the defensive stats would say otherwise, but nope: Statcast and Baseball Prospectus (the two sites with the best catcher defensive metrics) agree that Stephenson is awful despite having a decent season as a blocker. Stephenson doesn't have great hands, so he gives back a ton of runs framing, and while his arm is decent, he doesn't produce good pop times due to his defensive mechanics.

The Yankees are really good at managing catchers defensively, so maybe Stephenson is an upside candidate. I have no idea if he's good with pitchers, but it is really tough to get integrated with a pitching staff with just 66(!) games remaining. As an expiring contract, I do wonder if Stephenson would be available, and I'd be interested due to his bat, but the defense is rough.

Catching is going to be like digging for gold this trade deadline season, so I think it will take an overpay to get Stephenson. If I were the Yankees, I'd try to offer Kyle Carr and Garett Martin as an opening bid, but I think it will be more like Ben Hess or Elmer Rodriguez and a couple of lottery tickets in terms of cost.

Alan B. asks: Andy: With no games this week, let me ask you this question: Which prospects pleasantly have surprised you so far, which one(s) have disappointed you, and how has your hand picked breakout prospect done?

Disappointment is a strong word, but Elmer Rodriguez has been somewhat disappointing to me. For someone with decent stuff and decent command, watching him consistently overthrow like he doesn't have enough stuff at the big league level has been disappointing. There's another gear there for Elmer, and not seeing it in MLB action (or even in AAA action) has been disappointing. When he just lets it rip his way, Elmer can command his fastballs, which opens everything else up for him. I expect him to be fine, but his initial looks have been disappointing.

I mentioned him in my last Mailbag, but Garrett Martin has been my biggest surprise this year. I had really written off his ability to hit, and expected him to flame out in AA. I'm so glad I was wrong, because there's real juice in his bat. I don't know if he can get to a 35 hit tool, but if he does, he'll get a cup of coffee in the big leagues.

My breakout prospect has been pretty darn impressive. Xavier Rivas has caught fire. Check it out:

This does not include Xavier Rivas' recent no-hit bid, as I was working on a post about him just before Rivas threw that little gem. Xavier Rivas threw his worst outing of the season in his last start of May, which drags his overall numbers down. Minus that clunker, he's been fantastic. If you look at June and beyond, Rivas has hit another gear, and he's mowing hitters down. I still think he needs another tick of velocity, but he's putting himself on prospect maps, as I expected. The split-change and slider are absolute knockouts, and his fastball has enough carry to play at the tippy top of the zone. I think he'll need more of his sinker at AAA, but he's looking quite good.

Charles asks: Can you give us your predictions for the Yankees in the 2nd half and maybe a couple of players specifically?

I think that the Yankees will win the AL East despite their lack of fundamentals. I know that's a tall order, but I do not expect the Rays to continue their stellar play; they just aren't deep enough. I also think we've seen the worst of the Yankees. I still believe they'll play either the Phillies or the Dodgers in the World Series. I'm a fan - I expect the Yankees to win. If they don't...well, I'm not sure how Boone is still the manager today, but it's getting harder to justify with each passing season.

Jazz Chisholm and Austin Wells will be better in the 2nd half. My bold prediction: Jazz will go 30/30 on the season. At some point, he'll get smoking hot, as happens at some point every year. His numbers will look awfully similar to the back of his baseball card. Austin Wells will hit to a .675 OPS the rest of the way, which isn't good, but at least it's playable with his defense.

Cam Schlittler will cap off his Cy Young. Giancarlo Stanton never makes it back as a productive DH this season, and when he plays, it isn't good. Ryan Weathers will pitch to a 3.35 ERA the rest of the way.

Let's go Yankees! Let's hope for a good series against the Dodgers.