I hope all of you have had a happy, healthy, and safe holiday season. So far, my holiday has met my expectations: I’ve been entirely too gluttonous, and I’ve been able to spend plenty of time with people about whom I care. It’s been a much-needed breather.
As a consequence of this mini-break, the SSTN Mailbag is the first time I actually thought about the Yankees since Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers. Sometimes, a short break can help one see things with greater clarity…and sometimes you see the same things as you did prior to the break. I think I’m mostly in the latter camp in thinking about the Yankees’ roster, though there are certain things I don’t see as dire anymore.
Coming into the off-season, I really wanted an upgrade at third base. After a short break, I really think DJ LeMahieu will be fine there, though I do think that it is critical to get Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza back to swinging the bat the way they did in 2022 so that they are viable options for when LeMahieu inevitably gets hurt. I don’t think Stanton will be a drain on the offense the way he was in 2023, and I also don’t think that Judge will wind up with more than 100-110 games in CF, which is probably the sweet spot, because while I expect Stanton to be better in 2024, I also expect him to miss a chunk of time, which will allow Judge to move back over to RF for some time. I think that the additions of Soto, Grisham, and Verdugo will really help re-shape the offense. I still think the Yankees need depth and more pitching, and I still think it’s a critical need.
With clear eyes, I can say that the Yankees look like a playoff team on paper. I think that in order to be true championship contenders, they need two starting pitchers, at least. They also need better luck in the health department. We’ll just have to wait and see if the off-season and the trade deadline help the Yankees make their needed moves.
As always, thanks for the great questions, and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week’s SSTN Mailbag, we’ll revisit the Yamamoto signing, discuss my New Year’s wish list for the Yankees, and evaluate the Estevan Florial trade! Let’s get at it:
Mark asks: Now that more of the details have come out, how do you feel about Yamamoto signing with the Dodgers? Did the Yankees whiff?
I suspect that this won’t be a popular answer with many of you, but no, I do not think the Yankees whiffed, and I stand by much of what I wrote last week. Many more contract details regarding the deal Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers and what the Yankees offered have leaked out into the media, and I think it tells a fairly illuminating story.
Both the Yankees and Dodgers offered Yamamoto two opt-outs, though the Yankees offered Yamamoto his opt-outs one year earlier at each stage. This is not insignificant; if Yamamoto is the pitcher many of us believe him to be, he will certainly opt-out of his deal following the first opt-out opportunity, giving him the chance to reset the pitching market in free agency. Yamamoto would have been able to hit free agency at 29 years old with the contract the Yankees offered, whereas he will be 30 when he can do the same with the Dodgers. In the meantime, he will make significantly less money with the Dodgers during that time than he would have with the Yankees, because the Dodgers’ deal is heavily backloaded. This isn’t a deferred money scenario like the Dodgers used with Ohtani; this is simply shifting the majority of earnings onto the backend of the deal. If Yamamoto opts out, he never gets the backloaded money. The Yankees offered a straight $30 million per year.
As you can see, the contracts were not apples-to-apples, and frankly, there’s almost no way anyone could consider the Yankees’ offer more valuable to Yamamoto than the Dodgers’ deal (other than the eye-popping total, which is meaningless if Yamamoto does his job). What all of this comes down to is that Yamamoto simply wanted to be a Dodger more than he wanted to be a Yankee. I know most of you will disagree, but this is not a situation where the Yankees didn’t pony up the money. The details of the contracts offered make that clear.
As much as I liked Yamamoto, good riddance. I hope the Yankees and the Dodgers reach the World Series this year. I’ll take great delight in watching Soto and Judge go back-to-back off of Yamamoto in the first inning as the Yankees race to their first World Series title since 2009.
Mike asks: What’s left on your Yankees wish list in the New Year now that Yamamoto is gone?
My ideal remaining off-season for the Yankees would look something like this:
-Sign Jordan Montgomery
-Sign Frankie Montas to an incentive-laden 1-2 year deal
-Sign a good free agent reliever. I’m partial to Jordan Hicks.
-Find a veteran infielder with upside looking for a last shot at the bigs to invite to Spring Training as competition for Peraza and Cabrera. I know Peraza is out of options, but he could use the push, and the Yankees have proved adept at finding diamonds in the rough.
Brian asks: The Estevan Florial saga is over. What are your thoughts on the trade and is Cody Morris anything useful?
A saga is an interesting way to describe Florial’s tenure with the Yankees, but I’ll allow it. Most of you who have been around awhile know that I was never bullish on Florial’s future. When he broke out in the minors in 2017, I wanted the Yankees to sell high and get whatever they could for the big league club as their contention window opened. In fact, I never ranked Florial higher than 15 on any prospect ranking list I’ve ever compiled, and the only year in which he appeared on my list was 2017. Wrist injuries and pitch recognition issues (which have proven to be his Achilles heel) robbed Florial of most of his potential at the plate. For all that he performed well at AAA last season, his strikeout and swinging strike rates remained awful, despite the fact that he was repeating the level for a third time and the Automatic Ball-Strike system down at AAA helped plate discipline for prospects across the board. Having watched him play a lot, I also don’t think he’s a particularly good fielding centerfielder, as his routes often cause him to miss balls that his athleticism should allow him to catch. To me, Florial is a classic Quad-A player. The Guardians have possibly the worst outfield in MLB, so maybe he has a chance of catching on there, but I’m not particularly confident that he will. I wish Florial the best, but I don’t think the Yankees failed him, at all. He just isn’t that good.
Cody Morris is more than a bag of baseballs, and I think that the Guardians’ desperation for outfield help got the Yankees a more interesting arm than they could have hoped for otherwise. Morris has huge stuff, with a mid-90s fastball and an excellent curveball and change-up. The problem for Morris has always been health. Much like Jonathan Loaisiga years earlier, the thing to do with Morris is stick him in the bullpen, and let him air it out until his arm falls off. He could potentially be a good arm for the MLB bullpen as soon as this year, and he has all of his minor league options remaining. At this stage, getting Morris for Florial is a win.
The Yankees waited way too long to deal Florial, but at least Morris is useful.
